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  • FORECAST: Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast/advisory Number 7

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-atlan@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 23 02:35:51 2025
    940
    WTNT23 KNHC 230235
    TCMAT3

    TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
    0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2025

    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 74.6W AT 23/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
    34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
    4 M SEAS....180NE 60SE 0SW 120NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 74.6W AT 23/0300Z
    AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 74.5W

    FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.7N 74.9W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.0N 75.1W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.3N 75.2W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 35NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.7N 75.3W
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
    50 KT... 35NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
    34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

    FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.0N 75.6W
    MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
    50 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
    34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 70NW.

    FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.1N 76.2W
    MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
    50 KT... 45NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
    34 KT...150NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 16.0N 77.5W
    MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
    50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
    34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

    OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 16.5N 78.5W
    MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
    50 KT...100NE 75SE 70SW 80NW.
    34 KT...190NE 200SE 140SW 150NW.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 74.6W

    INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/0600Z

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH



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