650
WTNT33 KNHC 220854
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

...MELISSA RE-FORMS TO THE NORTHEAST...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
AND JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 73.5W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 14.3 North, longitude 73.5 West. Melissa is moving toward
the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A decrease in forward
speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and north-northwest is
expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Melissa
is expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of
Haiti later this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual strengthening is anticipated during the next few days,
and Melissa could become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches)
based on Air Force dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti beginning late on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could
begin in Jamaica late on Thursday or Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to
the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern
Jamaica through Saturday, with locally higher amounts possible.
Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday; however,
uncertainty in Melissa's track and forward speed reduces confidence
in exact totals. Significant flash flooding and landslides are
possible.

Across the northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western
Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected through Saturday. For
Aruba and Puerto Rico, 1 to 3 inches are expected through the same
period. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least
Saturday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake



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