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  • FORECAST: Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast/advisory Number 3

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-atlan@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 22 02:30:58 2025
    374
    WTNT23 KNHC 220230
    TCMAT3

    TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
    0300 UTC WED OCT 22 2025

    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 74.0W AT 22/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
    34 KT.......120NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
    4 M SEAS....120NE 0SE 0SW 90W.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 74.0W AT 22/0300Z
    AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 73.6W

    FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.6N 74.6W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.

    FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.1N 75.2W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.6N 75.6W
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.9N 75.8W
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.3N 75.8W
    MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
    34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.9N 75.7W
    MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
    34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 17.5N 76.1W
    MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
    34 KT...130NE 110SE 30SW 70NW.

    OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 17.6N 76.2W
    MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
    50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
    34 KT...150NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 74.0W

    INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/0600Z

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH



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