938
WTNT33 KNHC 212034
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 73.0W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 73.0 West. Melissa is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A decrease in
forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and north is
expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Melissa
is expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of
Haiti later this week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Melissa can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti beginning on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could begin
in Jamaica on Thursday or Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa will bring heavy rainfall to Haiti and the
Dominican Republic, with totals of 5 to 10 inches expected through
Friday. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Friday, but
uncertainty regarding the track and forward speed of Melissa
reduces confidence in exact amounts. Areas of significant flash
flooding and mudslides are possible.

Over Aruba, Puerto Rico and Jamaica rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is
expected through Friday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible
across Puerto Rico through at least Friday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


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