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  • FORECAST: Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast/advisory Number 1

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-atlan@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Oct 21 14:44:15 2025
    756
    WTNT23 KNHC 211444
    TCMAT3

    TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
    1500 UTC TUE OCT 21 2025

    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 71.7W AT 21/1500Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
    34 KT.......100NE 70SE 0SW 40NW.
    4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 71.7W AT 21/1500Z
    AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 71.3W

    FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.4N 72.8W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT...100NE 80SE 20SW 50NW.

    FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.8N 73.5W
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.3N 74.2W
    MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
    34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 70NW.

    FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.7N 74.5W
    MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
    34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 70NW.

    FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.1N 74.6W
    MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
    34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

    FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.5N 74.5W
    MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
    34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 70NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 16.9N 74.5W
    MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
    34 KT...130NE 110SE 30SW 70NW.

    OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 17.2N 74.9W
    MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
    50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
    34 KT...150NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 71.7W

    INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/1800Z

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

    $$
    FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



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