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  • TROPDISC: Tropical Weather Discussion...updated

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 23 18:06:48 2026
    983
    AXNT20 KNHC 231806 AAA
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1815 UTC Sun Aug 23 2026

    Updated for Special Features of AL95

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95): Satellite images indicate that
    showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization
    associated with an 1015 area of low pressure, Invest AL95, located
    about 348 nautical miles southeast of Bermuda. Scattered to numerous
    moderate isolated strong convection is present north of 23N between
    49W and 62W. Some fresh to locally strong winds are found near this
    low, north of 28N between 55W and 60W. Further development of the
    low is possible, and this system could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm during the next couple of days while it moves
    northward and north-northeastward, well northeast of Bermuda. This
    system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next
    48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
    Outlook at website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!8fCReQxfo63ghqBQT37Lz7imryTQjmQ40IHxQAN3NUR9NoRkWQRvTzaFq4EalmyDOgZlklwBfEIyzmFh2HPKja0VWO4$
    for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W south of
    19N, moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 31W and 39W, and from
    11N to 13N between 34W and 36W.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 53W south of
    20N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is near the northern portion of the wave from 19N to
    23N between 47W and 53W. This wave was seen nicely at the surface
    by recent ASCAT scatterometer data.

    An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 66W
    south of 20N along eastern Puerto Rico to north-central Venezuela,
    moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 kt. A small patch of scattered
    moderate convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 67W and 71W.

    A northwestern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 86W
    south of 21N from near the Yucatan Channel to central Honduras,
    moving westward at around 10 kt. Only isolated to widely scattered
    showers are near the wave axis. To the south over the far
    southwestern section of the Caribbean basin, scattered to numerous
    moderate to strong convection is noted just behind the wave and
    near the eastern extend of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough
    from 06N to 13N between 79W and 89W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Africa near 16N16W and continues southwestward to 06N42W. The ITCZ
    extends from 06N42W to 07N51W, then resumes west of a tropical
    wave from 09N55W to the coast of Venezuela at 09N61W. Aside from
    the convection described in the section above, scattered moderate
    convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 19W and 24N
    approaching portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and from 07N to
    10N between 23W and 26W. This convection may be associated with or
    out ahead of the next tropical wave to emerge off the coast of
    Africa.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    Relatively weak high pressure, anchored by a 1018 mb high center
    over the north-central Gulf at 27.5N90.5W, is generally allowing
    for anticyclonic light to gentle winds across the basin Slight
    seas are present throughout the basin per buoy observations.
    Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain are active
    over the Yucatan Peninsula and the southwestern Gulf offshore
    Veracruz, Mexico where a surface trough is present, and due to
    abundant upper moisture from the eastern Pacific which continues
    to advect eastward over southern Mexico. Isolated to widely
    scattered convection is also present near the coast of Florida
    just south of Apalachee Bay, and from offshore Tampa Bay west-
    southwestward about 300 nm, likely induced by a weak low-level
    trough.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over
    central Gulf through midweek, with the western Atlantic ridge
    building westward into the basin thereafter. This will maintain
    gentle to moderate winds and mainly slight seas through the week.
    A surface trough will generate fresh winds north and west of the
    Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. The
    trough will push further offshore through the Bay of Campeche
    during the overnight hours.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on
    convection in the basin, mainly confined to the southwest portion.

    The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western
    Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America
    is sustaining fresh to locally strong trades primarily over the
    south-central Caribbean. Seas up to around 8 ft are with these
    trades. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere,
    except over the northwestern part of the Caribbean north of 20N,
    where light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are
    present.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic
    high pressure and low pressure in northern South America continue
    to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over
    the south-central Caribbean through the week. Elsewhere, mainly
    moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside
    from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the
    basin. Winds will occasionally increase through the week following
    passages of a series of relatively weak tropical waves that will
    quickly move west across the basin.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on low
    pressure, Invest AL95, with the potential for tropical cyclone
    formation.

    Elongated surface troughing extends from north of the area well
    offshore the Carolinas through 31N78W to near Fort Pierce, Florida.
    Some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen
    on infrared satellite imagery from the northern Bahamas northward
    within 120-240 nm either side of the trough. To the east, a cold
    front extends from near the Iberian Peninsula southwestward through
    31N16W to 29N26W to 1020 mb low pressure near 30N29W, then
    northwestward as a frontal trough. Limited convection is near these
    features. Rough seas are found north of the front. Across the
    remainder of the basin, high pressure weak ridging dominates with a
    1020 high north of the area near 35N44W. Moderate to fresh trades
    are found from 10N to 22N north of the monsoon trough between the
    Cabo Verde ISlands and 42W, and in a belt from there to near the low
    pressure area, AL95.
    Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters.
    Seas are slight north of 20N and west of 60W, and moderate across
    the remainder of the waters.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure of 1015 mb
    centered near 28N60W is forecast to drift northwest today, then
    accelerate northward and out of the basin Mon. There is a low
    chance of tropical development of this low over the next 48 hours.
    Otherwise, high pressure will maintain light to gentle winds N of
    23N through the period. To the south, moderate to fresh trades
    will prevail, with locally strong winds pulsing at times offshore
    Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage. The northern portion of
    a tropical wave will move across the waters S of about 23N and E
    of the Bahamas early next week freshening the trades. By Wed, the
    northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE
    portion of the area, increasing the trades over those waters.

    $$
    Lewitsky

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 24 18:08:32 2026
    057
    AXNT20 KNHC 241808 AAA
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1815 UTC Mon Aug 24 2026

    Updated for the latest on the Special Feature AL95 and Tropical Wave
    near 18W

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1430 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Central Subtropical Atlantic (Invest-AL95): Satellite-wind data
    indicate that the low-level circulation remains broad in association
    with an area of low pressure centered a few hundred nautical miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Scattered moderate isolated strong
    convection is noted from 20N to 31N between 48W and 61W. Fresh to
    strong winds are noted mainly on the NE side of the low, north of
    29N between 55W and 61W where seas are 5 to locally 8 ft just north
    of the area. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive
    for further development, but this system could become a short-lived
    tropical depression or storm through Tuesday while it moves
    northward and north-northeastward, well northeast of Bermuda. By
    Wednesday, the low is forecast to move over cold waters, ending its
    formation chances. This system has a medium chance of tropical
    cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and through the next 7 days.
    Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!-9f-yz85jNb2lS2geUjOU9eMAYPUuNmjf2rAmkfcoZGY5PCLHeG4tpqjdCW-SAdyfXDpgji7-RCb3eG-h53gVqP9Amw$ for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave and associated area of low
    pressure has emerged off the west coast of Africa a few hundred
    nautical miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands near 18W and is
    accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms, while moving
    westward 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 17N between 15W and 25W.
    Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more
    conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by
    the middle to latter portions of the week while the system moves
    westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 kt across the eastern and
    central tropical Atlantic.

    An central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 41.5W south
    of 19N, moving westward around 15 kt. Please refer to the Monsoon
    Trough/ITCZ section below for details on any nearby convection as
    it is elongated along the ITCZ axis.

    A Tropical N Atlantic offshore waters tropical wave has its axis
    along 59W south of 21N, moving westward around 10 kt. Convection
    near the wave is limited however some isolated to widely scattered
    showers near the axis are possible.

    A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W south of 21N across
    central portions of the Dominican Republic to northwest Venezuela,
    moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
    noted from 17N to 18.5N between 69W and 72W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Africa near 14.5N17W and continues west-soutwhestward to 12N33W.
    The ITCZ extends from 12N133W to 10N40W, then resumes west of a
    tropical wave from 08N42W to along the coast of northern South
    America to 06N50W, with another segment to the west just inland of
    the Caribbean coast. Aside from the convection associated with
    the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong
    convection is noted within 180 nm either side of the ITCZ between
    33W and 54W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    Weak surface ridging that is anchored by a 1017 mb high center
    located near 26N89W is generally allowing for anticyclonic light
    to gentle winds across the basin, except moderate in the eastern
    Bay of Campeche to the western Yucatan Peninsula. Seas of slight
    state remain over the basin per buoy observations. Scattered
    showers and isolated thunderstorms are confined the Bay of
    Campeche south of 21N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over
    portions of the N-central and NE Gulf due to a weak low level
    trough.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over
    central Gulf through Wed, with the western Atlantic ridge building
    westward into the basin thereafter. This will maintain gentle to
    locally moderate winds and slight seas this week. A surface trough
    will generate locally fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan
    Peninsula in the early evenings through the period.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western
    Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America
    continues to allow for fresh to strong trades over the central
    Caribbean from the coast of Hispaniola to the coasts of NW
    Venezuela and northern Colombia. Seas up to 7 ft are with these
    trades. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere
    from 11N to 18N, with gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas
    elsewhere, except slight north of 20N in the lee of Cuba.
    Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from
    09N to 15N between 78.5W and 85W including over portions of
    northern Costa Rica and eastern Nicaragua.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic
    high pressure and low pressure in northern South America will
    continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough
    seas over the south-central Caribbean this week. Elsewhere, mainly
    moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside
    from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the
    basin. Winds will pulse at times through the week following
    passages of a series of relatively weak tropical waves that will
    quickly move west across the basin.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
    low pressure, Invest AL95, with the potential for tropical
    cyclone formation, and on a tropical wave that has recently
    emerged off Africa.

    A couple of weak surface troughs are analyzed off the coast of the
    SE United States and Florida with isolated to widely scattered
    showers and thunderstorms from roughly 27N to 31N between 73W and
    79W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted from the southern Bahamas
    and Turks and Caicos Islands to near the approach to the Windward
    Passage with low level troughing in place. Gentle to moderate
    winds prevail elsewhere north of 20N and west of 61W. Slight to
    moderate seas prevail north of 20N and west of 61W.

    Another pair of weak surface troughs are in the NE portion of the
    basin from near the Canary Islands westward as the remnants of an
    old frontal boundary. No significant convection is noted near
    these features. Otherwise, broad high pressure ridging prevails.
    Moderate to fresh trades dominate from north of the monsoon trough
    and ITCZ between Africa and 56W, with 4 to 7 ft seas. Winds are
    mainly moderate and seas moderate across any remainder waters.

    For the forecast west of 55W, broad low pressure of 1016 mb
    centered near 29N62W is producing scattered moderate convection
    and strong winds E of its center to about 52W. This low is
    expected to move N and out of the area by tonight, and is showing
    signs of tropical organization. Additional development of this
    system is possible, and a short- lived tropical depression or
    storm could form during the next couple of days well E of Bermuda.
    Regardless of development, conditions will improve over area
    waters by Tue as the system moves away. Elsewhere,moderate to
    fresh trades will prevail S of 23N, with slightly higher winds
    pulsing at times as the northern extent of tropical waves most
    westward across the far southern waters this week.

    $$
    Lewitsky

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 25 12:17:00 2026
    568
    AXNT20 KNHC 251216 AAA
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1215 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026

    Updated for Special Features

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600| UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1045 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): An area of low pressure
    centered a few hundred nautical miles south-southeast of the Cabo
    Verde Islands along a tropical wave is producing disorganized
    showers and thunderstorms. The wave extends along 20W/21W and S of
    20N, with a 1010 mb low centered along the wave axis near 11N21W.
    Disorganized scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
    seen from 07N to 12N between 17W and 25W. Environmental conditions
    appear conducive for gradual development, and this system is likely
    to become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it
    moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central
    tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions could become less
    conducive for development by the weekend. This system has a high
    chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 7 days.

    Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!-TFXnY7nApjjxRggITbo0STunqNYIBD5__yQB6Z3aohh_3YZEuJgSUBCbsan3mI7p4M7xgHNGIpSr9XV7Xc9RCbMkNo$ for more details on
    this feature.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W south of
    20N moving westward around 15 kt. Convection as described below
    under Monsoon Trough/ITCZ.

    An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W south of 21N.
    It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is presently
    occurring with this wave.

    A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W south of 21N
    to northern Colombia moving westward around 10 kt. No convection
    is presently noted with this wave.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Africa near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 11N24W and
    westward to 12.5N35W to 11N40W and to 09N48W, where it transitions
    to the ITCZ to near 07N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated
    strong convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between
    43W-47W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north
    of the trough between 47W-50W, and within 30 nm of the trough
    between 38W-43W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A relatively weak 1017 mb high pressure is centered over the
    central Gulf near 25N89W, and is generally producing light to
    gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin, except moderate NE
    winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Slight seas of 3 ft or less
    prevail over the basin per buoy observations and recent satellite
    altimeter satellite data passes.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over
    the central Gulf through Wed, with the western Atlantic ridge
    remaining dominate over the basin thereafter. This will maintain
    gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas into the weekend.
    A surface trough will generate locally fresh winds north and west
    of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the
    period.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the western
    Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America
    continues to allow for moderate to fresh trade winds over the
    central Caribbean from the coast of Hispaniola to the coasts of
    northwestern Venezuela and northern Colombia, with a narrow zone
    of strong winds along the coasts near the Gulf of Venezuela and
    far NE Colombia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft with these trades.
    Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere from 11N
    to 18N, with gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas
    elsewhere.

    Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
    confined to south of 15N west of 80W, including some of the
    inland sections of Nicaragua. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
    are elsewhere south of 18N west of 77W.

    For the forecast, the current synoptic pattern across the region
    will continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant
    rough seas over the south-central Caribbean through the
    rest of the week and into the weekend. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to
    fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to
    gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. Winds
    will pulse at times through the week following passages several
    tropical waves that will quickly move west across the basin. Long
    period northeast to east swell from an approaching low pressure
    system, or possibly a tropical cyclone, may begin to impact the far
    eastern portion of the tropical N Atlantic zone starting Sat.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
    low pressure, Invest AL96, and a tropical wave that emerged off
    the coast of Africa yesterday.

    Low pressure of 1015 mb, Invest AL95, is north of the area near
    35N60W. Its associated trough extends from the low to 31N61W and to
    near 24N64W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection and
    fresh to strong south winds persist to the E of the trough N of 24N
    between 55W and 58W. In the eastern Atlantic, another weak surface
    trough is analyzed from near 29N32W to 25N34W. No convection is
    active with this trough. Otherwise, broad high pressure ridging
    prevails. A 1019 mb high center is over the western Atlantic at
    29N69W. To the south of this feature, fresh east to southeast winds
    are over the waters from the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos
    Islands to near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds and
    slight to moderate seas remain elsewhere north of 20N and west of
    61W. Moderate to fresh trades dominate from north of the monsoon
    trough and ITCZ between Africa and 56W, with 5 to 8 ft seas as noted
    in overnight satellite altimeter data passes. Winds are mainly
    moderate and seas moderate across any remainder waters.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned fresh to strong
    south winds and the convective activity N of 24N between 55W and
    58W will slowly diminish through early this evening as Invest AL95
    moves farther away from the forecast waters. Elsewhere, moderate
    to at times fresh trades, will prevail S of about 23N, with
    slightly higher winds pulsing at times as the northern extent of
    tropical waves most westward across the far southern waters into
    the weekend. Long period northeast to east swell from an approaching
    low pressure system, Invest AL96, or possibly a tropical cyclone,
    may begin to impact the far SE portion of the area starting Sat.

    $$
    Aguirre/JRL

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)