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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2234

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Nov 18 18:41:41 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 181841
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181841=20
    LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-182045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2234
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1241 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

    Areas affected...east TX...western LA...and far southwest AR

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 181841Z - 182045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Increasing potential for a couple tornadic supercells
    should occur by late afternoon as warm-sector storms intensify ahead
    of a outflow-reinforced cold front. A tornado watch may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...As surface temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s as
    far northeast as the greater Houston Metro Area, warm-sector showers
    have deepened downstream within the warm conveyor across southeast
    TX. A 17Z sounding from Texas A&M at CLL well sampled the
    pre-frontal environment ahead of the outflow-reinforced cold front
    that has been marching east across east TX. While tropospheric lapse
    rates are weak, enhanced low-level shear persists where surface
    winds remain slightly backed ahead of the front (as shown in the 18Z
    LCH/SHV soundings). Surface winds/low-level flow have slowly veered
    farther southwest (where temperatures are warmer) per HGX VWP data,
    suggesting that initial storms might struggle to produce low-level
    mesocyclones until convection spreads farther northeast. The
    undercutting nature of the front will also limit tornado potential
    after passage. The more favorable kinematic/thermodynamic
    environment will probably become centered across the Sabine Valley
    in the next couple hours. This corridor will be monitored for a
    possible tornado watch.

    ..Grams/Smith.. 11/18/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4ULJkpFNeWZxJ__k331q1WdV8JIKufsfMqPYJ7hI4UZuuTPGN3pl7gHXV_sQURzo68fl9yO9a= IMD97k4ejWdADz4J7M$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

    LAT...LON 29619439 30039508 30969517 32139442 33149415 33439380
    33259302 32629270 31939266 30609282 29809328 29619439=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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