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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2215

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Nov 7 13:06:37 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 071306
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071306=20
    OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-071700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2215
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0706 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

    Areas affected...Northeast NM...Extreme Northwest TX Panhandle...Far
    Western OK Panhandle...Southeast CO

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 071306Z - 071700Z

    SUMMARY...Moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall (i.e. rates
    exceeding 1"/hr.) are expected to persist across northeastern NM and
    eastern CO, and into adjacent portions of western KS and the western
    TX/OK Panhandle through the morning.

    DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery shows a notable baroclinic
    leaf across northeast NM and eastern CO, downstream of a deep upper
    low centered over AZ. This synoptic pattern is favoring strong
    mid-level warm-air advection across the warm sector of this cyclone, contributing to a broad area of precipitation across much of
    central/eastern NM and eastern CO, and into adjacent portions of
    western KS and the western TX/OK Panhandles. Thermodynamic profiles
    from east-central NM northward are cold enough for snow, and recent observations suggest moderate to occasionally heavy snow is ongoing
    across the region. The upper low is expected to drift slowly
    eastward throughout the day. With the slow motion of will keep much
    of this region in a favorable location for continued moderate to
    heavy snow, with snowfall rates occasionally topping 1" per hour
    across the lower elevations. The mid-level warm-air advection is
    currently maximized across northeast NM, suggesting the heaviest
    snowfall is most likely across southeast CO for the next few hours.

    ..Mosier.. 11/07/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Zb8o7a1PqD9QM1urSxZKOIT6rxVo_BUjKlsetmqyjMal6faCxK7SwWdf7YrImN5wactLz59Z= PzQWvCcXtUHDYc0mfs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 37950413 39090394 39290264 38250206 36540236 35730337
    35760453 37950413=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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