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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2206

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Nov 4 19:27:22 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 041927
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041926=20
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-042130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2206
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0126 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

    Areas affected...The Texarkana region into western Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 041926Z - 042130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe/tornado threat appears to be gradually
    increasing from the Texarkana region into western Arkansas. Watch
    issuance is expected for western AR, but timing remains uncertain
    due to questions regarding short-term storm coverage across the
    Texarkana region.

    DISCUSSION...Radar imagery out of KFSM and KSHV has shown a few
    deeper/more robust thunderstorms beginning to develop with transient
    mid to low-level mesocyclones across the Texarkana region and across
    parts of western AR. Stable billow clouds noted earlier in satellite
    imagery have begun to erode as daytime heating and a lifting warm
    front promote steady destabilization (MLCAPE up to around 1500 J/kg
    per mesoanalysis estimates), suggesting that convection is gradually
    becoming rooted near the surface. Additionally, the KFSM VWP is
    sampling 0-1 km SRH between 150-180 m2/s2, which is adequate to
    support a tornado threat with discrete convection. Watch issuance is
    expected for portions of western AR where convective trends and
    recent high-res guidance suggests a severe/tornado threat is
    developing. Further south, weaker forcing for ascent casts some
    doubt on thunderstorm coverage for the short term and when watch
    issuance will be needed this afternoon/evening (though trends will
    continue to be monitored).

    ..Moore/Hart.. 11/04/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4QfvcYomrd1_E9xFtIsJPOUZWLPkn0dy2Kq1neP0L3QwB35kDOOhEOhBZNJTXRpGaOriTrMBu= pqdXvLtjd27Q6_x7X8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

    LAT...LON 32639509 33609451 34639445 35179445 35449436 35589409
    35619368 35569329 35459303 35299295 35059293 34649309
    34099330 33459366 32969398 32709418 32519441 32429467
    32399487 32419502 32639509=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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