ACUS02 KWNS 040628
SWODY2
SPC AC 040627

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SABINE TO
LOWER MS VALLEYS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI...

...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado or two and locally damaging winds may occur on
Tuesday across a portion of the Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys,
and central to southern Wisconsin.

...Gulf Coast States...
Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a
slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Some
of this activity might produce small hail along the TX Gulf Coast
portion where the surface front will likely shift off the coast by
mid-morning. Farther northeast, adequate low-level shear should be
maintained through at least midday, yielding potential for rotating
convection. But mid-level lapse rates will remain weak, and
large-scale ascent will be pulling away from the region through the
day. Some convective redevelopment is possible along the
front/residual outflows midday into the afternoon. Locally strong
gusts and a brief tornado will be possible during the first half of
the period. Low to deep-layer shear magnitudes are expected to
diminish from south to north during the evening.

Across the FL Keys, based on latest NHC track/intensity forecast for
PTC 18 along with 00Z guidance, tornado potential is expected to
remain negligible through 12Z Wednesday.

...Central/southern WI...
A conditional, low-probability setup from low-topped convection is
evident from about midday to mid-afternoon Tuesday. A deep surface
cyclone around 995 mb should track northeast from IA to central WI.
Some models suggest a mesoscale-focused corridor of modest diabatic
surface heating may overlap the northwest periphery of mid to upper
50s dew points. This could yield scant surface-based buoyancy
immediately ahead of the cyclone. However, this heating may occur
once low-level winds begin to veer, yielding low confidence in
whether enlarged hodographs will overlap the meager instability.
Still, with most 00Z CAMs indicating discrete convection,
low-probability tornado/wind highlights appear warranted.

..Grams.. 11/04/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 041728
SWODY2
SPC AC 041726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE
TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
A tornado or two and locally damaging winds may occur on Tuesday
across a portion of the Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys, and
central to southern Wisconsin.

...Synopsis...

A compact upper shortwave trough will shift northeast across the
Middle and Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes vicinity on
Tuesday. As the same time, another upper trough over the northern
Rockies will dig south/southeast through the period, maintaining
broad upper troughing over the West and into the Plains. Moderate to
strong deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with the initial
shortwave trough over the MS Valley will overspread east TX to the
Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure initially over northeast
KS/northwest MO/southeast NE will lift northeast into southern
Ontario by Wednesday morning. A cold front/composite outflow will
extend from the Mid-MS Valley into east TX and the TX Gulf Coast
vicinity. This boundary will slowly shift east through the period.
Meanwhile, a warm front will be draped across the upper Great Lakes
vicinity. Strong mid/upper level flow and these low-level boundaries
and surface low will focus some potential for strong thunderstorms
on Tuesday, mainly over WI and parts of southeast Texas to the Lower
MS.

...East TX/Lower MS Valley...

Convection will be ongoing Tuesday morning across east TX toward the
TX coast as a cold front slowly progresses east. A corridor of
modest instability will be in place ahead of the front from the TX
coast/Sabine Valley into LA. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to
remain poor. However, a moist boundary-layer (dewpoints in the low
70s F) and moderate low-level and deep-layer shear will support
organized convection. Forecast soundings indicate enlarged, looping
hodographs, becoming elongated above 3 km. This suggests rotation
may accompany convection, and a tornado or two will be possible,
particularly across parts of LA into southwest AR where low-level
shear will be somewhat more favorable compared to points further
south near the TX coast. Otherwise, line segments and cells may also
produce locally strong gusts. The severe risk should move offshore
the TX coast by around midday/early afternoon, while persisting
through the afternoon to early evening further north across LA and
the southeast AR vicinity. Overall, severe risk should be tempered
by poor lapse rates and only modest destabilization, along with
generally weak large-scale ascent further removed from the ejecting
upper shortwave trough.

...WI...

Warm advection ahead of the surface low/cold front moving from IA
into WI will result in showers/thunderstorms and widespread cloud
cover through the morning. This will limit diurnal heating, through
forecast soundings suggest some areas could warm into the mid 50s to
near 60 F by mid afternoon. This could allow for weak
destabilization, though may be ill-timed as low-level winds begin to
veer with time. While this lends to uncertainty in severe potential,
at least a low-end/conditional risk for a tornado or two, or locally
strong gusts appears possible.

..Leitman.. 11/04/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 050559
SWODY2
SPC AC 050558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FL
KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A few brief tornadoes will be possible within outer bands of
Tropical Cyclone Rafael, from late morning into the evening
Wednesday across the Keys and the far southern Peninsula of Florida.

...Keys/southern Peninsula of FL...
Latest NHC forecast has Tropical Storm Rafael intensifying to a
hurricane by 12Z Wednesday and moving across western Cuba into the
eastern Gulf through early Thursday. Most 00Z guidance has trended
farther northeast with the attendant belt of stronger low-level flow
relative to 24 hours ago. As such, near-easterly surface winds
veering to south-southeasterlies will yield hodograph enlargement.
This increase should be favorably timed to the diurnal heating
cycle, with peak low-level SRH anticipated during afternoon. Amid
increasingly rich mean-mixing ratios of 17-18 g/kg, deeper outer
band cells will likely rotate across the FL Straits and progress
west-northwest across the Keys and adjacent peninsula. At least a
few waterspouts appear probable and these may move across land as
tornadoes. Overall threat should diminish Wednesday night as
low-level SRH gradually subsides, and deep convection becomes
confined to the Gulf.

..Grams.. 11/05/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051729
SWODY2
SPC AC 051728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of brief tornadoes will be possible within outer bands of
Tropical Cyclone Rafael, from late morning into the evening
Wednesday across the Keys and the far southern Peninsula of Florida.

...Keys/southern Peninsula of FL...
Tropical Cyclone Rafael is forecast to move northwestward across
western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday
night per the latest National Hurricane Center forecast. Low-level
flow fields are forecast to strengthen across the Florida Straits
and Keys, with hodographs enlarging through early evening. This
increase should be favorably timed to the diurnal heating cycle,
with peak low-level SRH anticipated during the late afternoon. Mid
to upper 70s surface dewpoints will contribute to buoyancy
sufficient for some of the stronger updrafts to intermittently
rotate with a couple of tornadoes possible. The tornado threat will
probably lessen with time Wednesday night as low-level SRH weakens,
and deep convection becomes confined to the Gulf.

..Smith.. 11/05/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 060651
SWODY2
SPC AC 060650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF WEST
TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, beginning in the late
afternoon Thursday across parts of west and central Texas. The most
likely corridor for large hail will be over a part of west Texas on
Thursday evening/night.

...West/central TX...
A mid/upper low will drift east across AZ/NM through much of the day
Thursday. By Thursday night, it should accelerate as an attendant
mid-level jet becomes confined to the southeast quadrant of the
cyclone. While a surface ridge will initially nose down the southern
High Plains from an anticyclone over the central High Plains, this
will eventually lose amplitude. Weak cyclogenesis should occur late
in the period along an inverted surface trough in parts of west TX.

A persistent increase in low-level moisture from the western Gulf
will return northwestward through the period. While some elevated
convection will be possible during the day, initially from central
to northwest TX, the bulk of convective development should occur in
the evening/night as the low-level jet broadly intensifies. This
will be coincident with a gradual increase in mid-level height falls overspreading west TX Thursday night.

A mesoscale corridor of relatively greater supercell potential
appears evident during the evening/night. This appears centered on
parts of the Lower Pecos Valley/Permian Basin and the western
Edwards Plateau regions near the surface trough. While low-level
lapse rates should be weak, strong southwesterly speed shear in the
mid to upper levels will be favorable for a primary threat of large
hail with a mix of cells/small clusters. An abrupt cutoff to
surface-based severe convection is expected to the north/west of
this corridor, especially as weak cyclogenesis occurs. While
consistency has increased in guidance relative to 24 hours, where
exactly this demarcation is will likely be modulated by how
widespread elevated convection becomes during the evening to night.

..Grams.. 11/06/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 061727
SWODY2
SPC AC 061726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST
TX...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of west and central
Texas, with the greatest threat expected Thursday evening/night
across parts of west Texas. Large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a
tornado or two are all possible.

...Parts of west and central TX...
A deep mid/upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward
across AZ/NM on Thursday, before accelerating later Thursday night
into early Friday morning. An expansive surface ridge will initially
cover much of the western/central CONUS, though weak cyclogenesis is
expected later in the period in the vicinity of an inverted surface
trough over west TX. Seasonably rich surface moisture will stream
westward across parts of western/central TX through the day, with
increasing moisture also expected atop a relatively shallow
cool/stable layer into parts of northwest TX and southwest OK by the
end of the period.

Elevated convection will be possible near/north of the effective
warm front through the day, with isolated diurnal storm development
also possible within the moistening/destabilizing warm sector. Storm
coverage and the organized severe threat are expected to increase
later in the evening into the overnight hours, as the low-level jet
nocturnally intensifies and the mid/upper-level low approaches the
region.

Moderate instability and rather strong deep-layer shear will support
the potential for a few supercells and organized clusters,
especially across parts of the Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau
regions. A threat for large hail and localized severe gusts will
accompany the strongest storms. Also, while the bulk of the
nocturnal convection may tend to be somewhat elevated, increasingly
rich low-level moisture will support some potential for
surface-based supercells near the surface trough/low, with favorably
veering wind profiles supporting a threat of a tornado or two.

...Lower FL Keys...
Hurricane Rafael is forecast to move westward across the southern
Gulf of Mexico on Thursday; see NHC forecasts and advisories for
more information. Relatively strong low-level flow to the east of
Rafael may still be in place across the lower Keys at the start of
the forecast period, though weakening is expected through the day as
Rafael moves away from the region. While a low-probability tornado
threat cannot be ruled out across parts of the lower Keys, the
magnitude of the threat from 12Z onward appears too limited for
probabilities at this time.

..Dean.. 11/06/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 070647
SWODY2
SPC AC 070645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL TO
NORTH TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening
Friday across parts of central to north Texas.

...TX...
A deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move north-northeastward from NM
into the central High Plains. A weak surface low will similarly
track northward from northwest TX into western KS before occluding.
A trailing outflow-reinforced cold front should push east into
central TX by late afternoon Friday. A surface ridge initially
across the Mid-South will limit more substantial moisture return
north of the Red River.

Extensive convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across
parts of west TX/OK. An isolated/marginal severe threat could
accompany the storms during the morning across the Edwards Plateau
vicinity, where more favorable mid-level instability will be.
Surface-based destabilization will struggle across northern parts of
TX and this should support increasingly pronounced differential
heating from south to north across central TX. Guidance consensus
suggests a separate arc of afternoon thunderstorm development should
occur within a warm conveyor ahead of the surface front. This could
foster a mesoscale uptick in severe potential approaching the I-35
corridor late day. While low-level SRH should be modest where MLCAPE
is more than meager, rich western Gulf moisture will support
potential for a few supercells. Hail/wind may be the primary
threats, but a couple tornadoes are also possible. Guidance does
differ with how quickly the outflow-reinforced cold front pushes
east during the day, yielding moderate uncertainty of where a
greater severe threat may be.

Given the north-northeast track of the upper low and associated weak
surface cyclone, forcing for ascent should progressively wane during
the evening from south to north. This suggests the severe threat
will likely diminish after sunset.

..Grams.. 11/07/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071730
SWODY2
SPC AC 071728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early/mid evening
Friday across parts of central to north Texas. A couple of tornadoes
will be possible, along with isolated hail and damaging winds.

...Texas...
The Marginal Risk has been expanded somewhat with this outlook, but
higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for some part
of central/north TX, if a mesoscale corridor of greater potential
becomes apparent.

A deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move north-northeastward from NM
into the central High Plains on Friday. A weak surface low is
forecast to move from parts of western north TX into western KS. A
trailing outflow-reinforced cold front will move eastward across
parts of central/north TX through the day and into the evening. Rich
low-level moisture will be in place along/east of the front across
parts of TX, though a surface ridge extending from the Midwest into
the Mid-South will limit the northward extent of substantial
moisture return. A diffuse warm front will likely become established
somewhere across north TX, with low 60s F dewpoints to the north of
the this front, and upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints south of the
front.

Widespread convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across
parts of west TX/OK. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could
support an isolated severe threat with the strongest early-day
storms. Diurnal redevelopment will be possible across parts of
central/north TX, both within a moist warm-conveyor east of the
front, and also in the vicinity of the front itself by late
afternoon. While stronger low-level flow will be lifting northward
away from the warm sector through the day, somewhat backed low-level
flow will maintain modestly favorable low-level shear/SRH, while
deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection.
Rich low-level moisture will support MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg
(greater with southward extent) across the effective warm sector
during the afternoon and early evening.

A few supercells could evolve along/ahead of the cold front and
near/south of the effective warm front during the afternoon and
evening across parts of central/north TX, with at least some threat
for all severe hazards. Guidance continues to vary regarding the
evolution of early-day convection and related timing of the cold
front, but a mesoscale corridor of somewhat greater severe threat
could evolve with time, with potential for a couple of tornadoes and
isolated hail/damaging gusts.

..Dean.. 11/07/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 080647
SWODY2
SPC AC 080646

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night.

...Western Gulf Coast to Lower MO/OH Valleys...
A vertically stacked cyclone will pivot northeastward from the
central High Plains into the Upper Midwest during the period. An
occluded/cold front will initially arc southeast to south from the
surface low. The trailing portion will slow and become nearly
stationary from AR to the TX Gulf Coast by early Sunday. A warm
front will attempt to advance north across the Lower MS Valley into
the Mid-South by late afternoon Saturday. Rich low-level moisture
will be present along/south of the front. But the belt of strong
mid-level south-southwesterlies in the southeast quadrant of the
cyclone will remain displaced well north of the warm front. Poor
mid-level lapse rates will greatly hamper warm-sector buoyancy. Much
of the thunderstorm activity should remain elevated and driven by
the warm conveyor in a weakly buoyant profile.

..Grams.. 11/08/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 081712
SWODY2
SPC AC 081711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
An upper cyclone over the central Plains will shift east/northeast
through the period, becoming positioned over the Upper Midwest
vicinity by Sunday morning. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow
will overspread portions of the mid/upper MS Valley and Great Lakes
ahead of this feature. Surface cyclogenesis is not expected to be
strong, with low pressure over northwest KS actually weakening as it
shifts northeast with time. Nevertheless, a broader area of low
pressure will develop over the northern Plains to the Upper MS
Valley.

A warm front oriented over the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South vicinity
will lift north through the period on increasing southerly low-level
flow. This will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to spread
northward across the Mid-South into the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valleys,
with higher dewpoints further south across the Lower MS Valley. Warm
850 mb temperatures will result in poor low-level lapse rates and
the boundary-layer will remain capped through the period. Midlevel
lapse rates are also forecast to remain poor, and instability will
be scant. Furthermore, strong vertical shear will remain displaced
from the deeper boundary-layer moisture. While elevated
thunderstorms will be possible within the warm advection regime from
the western Gulf Coast to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley region, severe
storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 11/08/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 090554
SWODY2
SPC AC 090552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough and its attendant surface cyclone over the Upper
Midwest at 12Z Sunday will progress east, reaching the Ottawa Valley
by early morning Monday. A surface front, trailing southwestward,
will sink slowly southeast over the OH Valley to Mid-South and
remain quasi-stationary over the Ark-La-Tex. A confined low-level
warm/moist conveyor will support a threat for elevated thunderstorms
from the Mid-South to the OH Valley. Surface-based storms will be
possible southwestward to the western/central Gulf Coast. Poor lapse
rates, weak buoyancy, and diminishing vertical shear will preclude
severe storms.

Across south FL, as moisture increases within a southeasterly
low-level flow regime, isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Sunday night.

..Grams.. 11/09/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 091721
SWODY2
SPC AC 091720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

...Synopsis...
A compact upper-level cyclone over the middle MO Valley is forecast
to quickly translate eastward, reaching the eastern Great Lakes and
upper OH valley Sunday evening. At the surface, low pressure and a
trailing cold front will accompany the upper low, moving into
southern Canada by early Monday. Showers and elevated thunderstorms
are likely along the front from the OH Valley, to the Mid-South and
ArklaTex. Primarily elevated and within weak buoyancy and limited
vertical shear, organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely.
Additional scattered air mass storms are possible across parts of
the Carolinas, southern FL and the Gulf Coast.

...Mississippi Valley...
In the immediate wake of the departing upper-level cyclone, weak and
broad troughing will persist over parts of the middle and lower MS
Valley. A northeast to southwest oriented frontal zone will bound
the western edge of a plume of seasonably high surface moisture with
dewpoints in the mid 60s F. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to
be ongoing along and east of the front early Sunday. However, as the
upper cyclone departs, forcing for ascent and stronger flow aloft
will gradually diminish from west to east. Given the expected
coverage of cloud debris and preceding precipitation, poor low and
mid-level lapse rates are expected with sparse surface heating. This
should limit diurnal destabilization to generally less than 1000
J/kg of MUCAPE. While scattered thunderstorms are expected along and
near the front through much of the day and into the evening poor
lapse rates, weak buoyancy, and diminishing vertical shear will
likely preclude severe potential.

..Lyons.. 11/09/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 100630
SWODY2
SPC AC 100628

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected Monday or Monday night.

...Southeast...
Isolated, elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the
Carolina Coastal Plain. Weak tropospheric lapse rates will be a
limiting factor to updraft intensity. Low-level flow will become
increasingly veered during the day, yielding a predominately zonal
flow regime. This should result in thunder potential shifting
entirely offshore around midday.

A few thunderstorms embedded within a corridor of slow-moving
convection will be possible along a portion of the central Gulf
Coast, before activity gradually wanes during the day. Isolated
thunderstorms may also develop across a portion of south FL during
the afternoon.

...Western WA/OR and northern CA...
A leading shortwave trough and attendant surface cold front should
move onshore Monday morning. In its wake, low to mid-level lapse
rates will steepen amid meager buoyancy. An upstream shortwave
impulse and persistent onshore low-level winds should support
scattered, low-topped convection. Some of this will be sufficiently
deep to foster sporadic lightning through Monday evening.
Thunderstorm probabilities will diminish Monday night as the plume
of steep mid-level lapse rates shifts farther inland.

..Grams.. 11/10/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101723
SWODY2
SPC AC 101722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday along parts of the eastern
Gulf Coast, Atlantic Seaboard and in the western states. No severe
threat is expected across the continental U.S. Monday or Monday
night.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough will move through the eastern U.S. on Monday, as
a cold front advances southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and
southern Appalachians. Ahead of the front, thunderstorms will be
possible on Monday within a moist airmass across the eastern
Carolinas. Isolated storms may also occur along a sea breeze
boundary in coastal parts of south and east Florida. In addition,
some lighting strikes may occur in the central Gulf Coast, in
association with the outer bands of Tropical Cyclone Rafael. In the
western U.S., thunderstorms may develop on Monday ahead of a
mid-level trough from the Sierras northward into western Oregon and
western Washington. No severe threat is expected across the
continental U.S. Monday and Monday night.

..Broyles.. 11/10/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110644
SWODY2
SPC AC 110642

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
TX TO FAR SOUTHWEST KS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail will be possible in parts of the southern
High/Rolling Plains on Tuesday evening.

...Southern High/Rolling Plains...
Zonal upper flow over the southern states will buckle as a
full-latitude trough progresses eastward across the West. This
trough should reach the Great Plains by 12Z Wednesday. Primary
embedded shortwave impulse is expected to eject from the Four
Corners into the central Great Plains. Low-level moisture quality
downstream will be lacking, owing in part to the preceding presence
of post-TC Rafael in the western Gulf. Modified moisture return will
still emanate northward from northeast Mexico. Low to mid 50s
surface dew points should reach the TX Panhandle by 00Z, with upper
50s farther south in west TX. This should yield a narrow ribbon of
weak buoyancy (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg), ahead of a sharpening
surface trough.

Confidence remains low in whether surface-based storms will become
sustained prior to sunset, given the limited buoyancy and rather dry
mid-levels within the southwesterly flow regime. More probable
convective development is expected during the evening, as
large-scale ascent increases with approach of the trough and
strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection occurs. Favorable
speed shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support potential for a
few elevated supercells. Mid-level lapse rates appear modest, and
this may hold hail magnitudes to marginally severe. The severe
threat will probably be confined to the early/western portion of sustained-storm activity, but small hail may persist
east-northeastward in parts of OK/KS Tuesday night.

..Grams.. 11/11/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 111725
SWODY2
SPC AC 111724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few elevated storms -- possibly capable of producing hail -- may
develop across parts of the southern High Plains and into western
Oklahoma Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
As an upper-level trough shifts across the northeastern U.S. and
eventually vacates the CONUS, a second/high-amplitude trough
crossing the western states is forecast to cross the High Plains and
emerge into the Plains States during the second half of the period
tomorrow (Tuesday).

At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure will cover the
eastern half of the U.S. in the wake of a prior cold-frontal
passage, while remnants of Rafael linger over the western Gulf.
Overnight, a cold front -- associated with the western upper trough
-- is forecast to shift out of the Rockies and into the Plains.

...Texas Panhandle/South Plains region into western Oklahoma...
Boundary-layer moisture return is forecast to be meager ahead of the
advancing cold front, as northeasterly winds will persist across the
western Gulf of Mexico west of the remnants of Rafael. As such,
surface-based, diurnal convective development appears unlikely.
With that said, elevated theta-e advection should be sufficient to
allow thunderstorm development to occur across portions of the
southern High Plains region and into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma
overnight. Ample cloud-layer shear combined with 500 to 1000 J/kg
elevated CAPE expected to evolve may allow a few storms to develop
some mid-level rotation. As such, hail potential still appears
sufficient to warrant maintenance of Level 1/MRGL risk across this
area.

..Goss.. 11/11/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 120658
SWODY2
SPC AC 120657

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST...FOR COASTAL WA/OR/NORTHERN
CA...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal tornado/wind threat is apparent on Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night across a part of the central Gulf Coast States. Thunderstorms with strong to locally severe gusts are also possible
near the immediate coasts of Washington, Oregon, and northern
California.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from
the Great Plains toward the Midwest and OH/TN Valleys on Wednesday.
In conjunction with this shortwave trough, a weak surface low will
move from the east-central Plains toward the Great Lakes region, as
a trailing cold front moves through parts of the middle/lower MS
Valley. Farther west, a deep mid/upper-level trough will progress
farther inland across the western CONUS, as an embedded shortwave
moves across northern CA into the interior Northwest.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast region...
Rich low-level moisture (with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints) is
forecast to gradually spread northward across the lower MS Valley
region from later in the D1/Tuesday period into D2/Wednesday. Weak
lapse rates will tend to limit instability, while stronger
mid/upper-level flow will generally remain north of the richer
moisture. However, deep-layer shear will likely become at least
marginally supportive of organized storms, while some enhancement to
low-level flow/shear is forecast as the shortwave trough to the
north glances the region. This evolution could support a few
marginal supercells and/or stronger clusters during the afternoon
and evening, with a threat of locally damaging winds and possibly a
tornado or two.

Elevated storms will also be possible through the day/evening to the
north of the richer surface moisture. While effective shear will be
sufficient for a few strong elevated storms, the severe potential
with northward extent will tend to be limited by weak midlevel lapse
rates and generally marginal MUCAPE.

...WA/OR/northern CA coasts...
Cooling temperatures aloft will support weak destabilization in the
vicinity of the WA/OR/northern CA coasts through the day on
Wednesday. While convection will be rather low-topped, instability
may become sufficient (with SBCAPE potentially in the 200-500 J/kg
range) for occasional thunderstorms. The strongest low-level flow
will precede the primary destabilization, but persistent and rather
strong deep-layer southwesterly flow could support modestly
organized line segments and/or weakly rotating cells, with a threat
of isolated severe convective gusts and perhaps some small hail. A
brief tornado also cannot be ruled out, though the favored location
(if any) of any longer-lived rotating cells remains uncertain at
this time.

..Dean.. 11/12/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 121717
SWODY2
SPC AC 121715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...AND COASTAL PORTIONS
OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal tornado/wind threat is apparent on Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night across a part of the central Gulf Coast States. Thunderstorms with strong to locally severe gusts are also possible
near the immediate coasts of Washington, Oregon, and northern
California.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Plains through the
MS Valley on Wednesday, becoming more negatively tilted as it does.
An occluded surface low associated with this system will begin the
period over the mid MO Valley before moving eastward across IA and
reaching the northern IL early Thursday morning. More consequently
for the severe-weather potential, a secondary triple-point low is
expected to progress eastward across the northern portion of the
Southeast states, along the northern edge of an eastward-evolving
warm sector. Cold front associated with this low will gradually move
eastward across the Southeast states during the day.

Farther west, an upper-level trough is forecast to progress farther
inland across the western CONUS, as an embedded shortwave trough
moves across northern CA into the interior Northwest/northern Great
Basin.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast...
General expectation is for a triple-point surface low to evolve over
the Mid-South vicinity through the early afternoon as low-level
moisture continues to advect northward across the central Gulf Coast
region. Dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s are anticipated ahead of
this low and associated cold front. The airmass is expected to
destabilize amid this low-level moisture, but overall buoyancy will
still be modest given the lack of steep lapse rates. The combination
of destabilization and increasing ascent is forecast to result in
thunderstorm development across the warm sector, but along and ahead
of the eastward-progressing cold front.

The stronger shear will likely be displaced north of the stronger
buoyancy, but enough shear is expected across the warm sector to
support organized storms if updrafts can persist and deepen. This
evolution could support a few marginal supercells and/or stronger
clusters during the afternoon and evening, with a threat of locally
damaging winds and possibly a tornado or two.

Elevated storms will also be possible through the day/evening to the
north of the richer surface moisture. While effective shear will be
sufficient for a few strong elevated storms, the severe potential
with northward extent will tend to be limited by weak midlevel lapse
rates and generally marginal buoyancy.

...WA/OR/Northern CA coasts...
Cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -24 to -28 deg C at 500 mb)
associated with the upper trough are expected to spread eastward
throughout the day. These cold mid-level temperatures and associated
steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to modest buoyancy along
the coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest. Highest storm
coverage is anticipated over the northern CA coast vicinity from the
late morning into the early afternoon along as the frontal band
moves through, but persistent forcing for ascent within this
modestly buoyant airmass is expected to result in more cellular
storms throughout the remainder of the afternoon and evening. A more
linear mode is anticipated within the frontal band, with a few
convectively enhanced gusts possible. Low-topped cellular activity
is anticipated in the wake of the frontal band, with a few instances
of small hail, and potentially even a brief tornado, possible.

..Mosier.. 11/12/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 130701
SWODY2
SPC AC 130659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms will be possible near the central and northeast
Gulf Coasts early on Thursday, and later across coastal parts of the
Carolinas Thursday evening and night. Organized severe potential
appears relatively low at this time.

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted mid/upper-level trough initially over the
Midwest/Ohio Valley is forecast to dig southeastward on Thursday and
evolve into a closed mid/upper-level low as it approaches the Mid
Atlantic. As this occurs, a surface low is forecast to deepen
Thursday night along a frontal boundary near the Coastal Carolinas.
Farther west, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move
eastward and amplify as it approaches the Pacific Coast and
eventually moves inland.

...Central/northeast Gulf Coast vicinity...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across parts
of AL/GA and the FL Panhandle, aided by the mid/upper-level
shortwave trough moving across the Ohio Valley and attendant
low-level jet. Low-level flow will tend to veer and weaken through
the day, which will tend to result in less convective organization
with time. However, if organized convection from late on
D1/Wednesday can persist into Thursday morning, then rich low-level
moisture and sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear could support
a threat of isolated damaging winds and possibly a tornado.
Probabilities may eventually be needed if it appears that some
severe threat may continue from overnight Wednesday into the first
part of Thursday.

...Coastal Carolinas...
Uncertainty remains regarding the northward extent of appreciable
surface moistening/destabilization near the Coastal Carolinas, as
the surface low deepens and tracks east-northeastward into Friday
morning. However, there appears to be some potential for the
effective warm front to overlap parts of coastal NC and the Outer
Banks during the evening, as stronger deep-layer flow and ascent
overspread the region. Increasingly widespread precipitation will
tend to limit destabilization, but favorable wind profiles will
support organized convective potential where modest buoyancy can
develop. Probabilities may eventually be needed near the coast and
Outer Banks, if confidence increases regarding the potential for
isolated damaging winds and/or a tornado later in the forecast
period.

..Dean.. 11/13/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 131727
SWODY2
SPC AC 131726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast and
Florida Panhandle early on Thursday, and later across coastal parts
of the Carolinas Thursday evening into Friday morning. Organized
severe potential appears relatively low at this time.

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the
Upper Midwest through the TN Valley early Thursday morning before
continuing eastward across the OH Valley while developing a closed
mid-level circulation. By early Friday morning, the resulting upper
low is expected to be over the Mid-Atlantic with enhanced mid-level
flow throughout its base from the TN Valley to off the Southeast
coast. In response to this evolution, a surface low is expected to
deepen as it moves northeastward over the coastal Carolinas.

At the same time, upper ridging is expected to build across the
Plains in response to a deepening upper trough forecast to move over
the West Coast late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible across the Pacific Northwest coast,
fostered by cold temperatures aloft and persistent large-scale
forcing for ascent.

...Central Gulf Coast into the FL Panhandle...
A triple-point low will likely be centered over central AL early
Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from
this low off the AL coast and a warm front extending
east-southeastward across central GA. This warm front is expected to
become more stationary throughout the day as the dry and cool
airmass to its north remains in place. The surface low and
associated front are still expected to continue eastward, with this
overall evolution confining the warm sector to south of central GA.
The low-level jet is expected to weaken throughout the day while
also remaining displaced north of the warm sector.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of
the cold front early Thursday morning. However, the evolution
described above is expected to result in gradually diminishing
coverage while also limiting storm organization/strength. A few
stronger storms are possible early, but overall severe potential
appears too low to introduce any probabilities.

...Coastal Carolinas...
Triple-point low initially over central AL is forecast to progress
eastward along the stationary front across GA before then continuing northeastward across the eastern SC and coastal NC along a
developing warm frontal zone. Low-level moisture advection will
precede this low, with low to mid 60s dewpoints likely penetrating
slightly inland across the eastern Carolinas. Even with this
moisture advection, buoyancy will be limited by poor lapse rates,
with some guidance even suggesting surface-based convective
inhibition persists throughout Thursday night/early Friday morning.
Most favorable location for a few stronger storms is expected to be
near the surface low, where mesoscale lift will augment the larger
scale forcing, helping to overcome any remaining convective
inhibition. Moderate deep-layer shear will be in place throughout
the region, suggesting any deep updrafts could become more
organized. However, overall severe coverage is expected to remain
too low to introduce any probabilities.

..Mosier.. 11/13/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 140640
SWODY2
SPC AC 140638

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A deepening cyclone initially centered near the NC Outer Banks on
Friday morning is forecast to quickly move offshore through the day,
as a trailing cold front moves across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf
of Mexico. A deep mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward
across the western CONUS, with some further amplification of this
trough expected through the forecast period.

Thunderstorm potential will be low across most of the CONUS due to
generally limited moisture/instability. Some thunderstorm potential
may linger very early in the period across coastal NC, before the
low moves farther offshore with time. Weak convection with sporadic
lightning flashes will be possible across parts of central/northern
CA into the Great Basin in association with the western trough.
Confidence in sufficient coverage remains too low to include any
general thunderstorm areas across the West at this time.

..Dean.. 11/14/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 141721
SWODY2
SPC AC 141720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A maturing mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to begin the period over
eastern NC before then continuing eastward into the western
Atlantic. A few lightning flashes are possible within the warm
conveyor of this cyclone early Friday morning, but any higher storm
coverage is expected to remain well offshore.

The upper pattern farther west across the majority of the CONUS is
expected to amplify as a strong trough gradually progresses from the
West Coast to the Intermountain West, and downstream ridging across
the Plains builds as it moves through the MS Valley. By early
Saturday morning, the upper troughing is forecast to extend from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward to off southern CA/northern Baja
Peninsula, and upper ridging will likely extend from the central
Gulf of Mexico through the Upper Great Lakes into northwestern
Ontario.

A few flashes are possible along the trough as it moves across
northern/central CA and into the Great Basin, supported by cold
mid-level temperatures and strong ascent. However, coverage is
currently expected to remain below 10%. A dry continental airmass
and warm mid-level temperatures will remain over the Plains,
precluding any buoyancy.

..Mosier.. 11/14/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 150650
SWODY2
SPC AC 150648

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday from the central
Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes, but no severe
threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level low will move into the Dakotas on Saturday, as
southwesterly mid-level flow remains in place across the much of the
Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will
be possible from the afternoon into the overnight within a broad a
corridor of strong low-level flow from Kansas northeastward into the
upper Great Lakes. Instability is expected to be minimal, and a
severe threat is not expected across the continental U.S. Saturday
and Saturday night.

..Broyles.. 11/15/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 151707
SWODY2
SPC AC 151705

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday from the central
Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes, but no severe
threat is expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward to off the southern CA/northern Baja Coast, covering
much of the western/central CONUS early Saturday morning. The mean
upper trough is forecast to gradually progress eastward throughout
the day while a pair of embedded shortwave troughs evolve eastward/southeastward. The northernmost shortwave will likely
progress across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest while the southernmost wave progresses southeastward across southern CA into
the northern/central Baja Peninsula. By early Sunday morning,
enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is expected to extend between
these two shortwaves, from northern Mexico across the southern High
Plains and central Plains into the Upper Midwest.

Surface low associated with the northern shortwave trough will
likely begin the day over western SD before then progressing
northeastward across the central/eastern Dakotas and northwestern MN
throughout the period. An associated cold front will push eastward/southeastward across the northern and central Plains and
into the Upper Midwest in the wake of this low.

Airmass modification is anticipated across the Plains throughout the
period as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western
Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to
the northern Plains shortwave trough. However, this early-stage
moisture return will remain confined to the southern Plains where
warm mid-level temperatures will preclude any buoyancy. A plume of
elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection farther
north, beginning across parts of the central Plains late Saturday afternoon/early evening and continuing into the Upper Midwest late
Saturday night into early Sunday. Highest coverage is expected
across WI early Sunday morning. Limited buoyancy throughout these
areas will keep storm strength modest and keeping the
severe-thunderstorm threat low.

..Mosier.. 11/15/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 160657
SWODY2
SPC AC 160655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts
of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening through
daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a
tornado or two.

...Southern High Plains...
A mid-level low and an associated trough will move into northern
Mexico on Sunday, reaching the southern High Plains Sunday night.
Ahead of the trough, strong moisture advection will occur across the
southern Plains. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase in the
50s F across parts of west and northwest Texas, and into the 60s F
across much of west-central and north-central Texas. A large area of
convection is expected to develop by early Sunday evening ahead of
the trough from southeast New Mexico into parts of far west and
west-central Texas. This will occur as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens across the southern High Plains. Aided by strong
large-scale ascent, and a rapid low-level jet response, scattered
strong to severe storms are expected to develop over parts of the
southern High Plains. Model forecasts are in relatively good
agreement, showing potential for MCS development late Sunday evening
into Sunday night.

Although instability will remain weak ahead of the system, a steady
ramp up of instability and low-level moisture is expected over the
southern Plains. Between 03Z and 09Z on Sunday evening, ECMWF
forecast soundings increase MLCAPE into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range
over parts of west-central and northwest Texas. This suggests that
the severe threat that develops with the MCS should continue into
the overnight period. The current thinking is that a line of strong
to severe storms will become organized and move across west-central
and northwest Texas from late Sunday evening into the overnight. The
primary mode is expected to be linear, although isolated discrete
supercells, with tornado potential, may develop ahead of the line.
Otherwise, the primary threat should be for severe gusts along the
leading edge of a quasi-linear convective system. The severe threat
may continue to the end of the period, as a band of focused
large-scale ascent couples with a strong low-level jet to maintain
strong convective development with the MCS.

..Broyles.. 11/16/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 161728
SWODY2
SPC AC 161726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts
of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening through
daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a
few tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted mid-level trough will eject into the southern
Plains tomorrow (Sunday) into tomorrow night as a second mid-level
trough impinges on the Interior West. By tomorrow night into early
Monday morning, surface low development is expected across western
TX as strong upper support and an 80 kt mid-level speed max
overspread the southern Plains. Low-level warm-air advection
accompanying the developing surface low will support modest
boundary-layer destabilization across central TX into southern OK,
where adequate lift and shear will support some potential for severe thunderstorms.

...Southern Plains - Sunday Night into early Monday Morning...
By around 06Z Monday morning, a surface low should begin to
materialize just south of the TX Panhandle with the ejection of the aforementioned mid-level trough. Despite poor low and mid-level
lapse rates, modest surface-850 mb theta-e advection will support a
corridor of 500-750 J/kg SBCAPE across central TX into extreme
southern OK during the 06-12Z time frame. Given strong forcing for
ascent and south-southwesterly 500 mb flow oriented roughly parallel
with an approaching cold front, a squall line is expected to develop
and advance northeast in tandem with the surface low. Modest veering
but rapid strengthening with height of the vertical wind profile
will support large, curved hodographs ahead of the squall line.
0-500 m SRH may exceed 200 m2/s2, with 0-3 km SRH reaching 400 m2/s2
in spots. However, questions remain regarding how much SRH can be
effectively ingested into thunderstorm updrafts given scant buoyancy
profiles. Still, effective downward momentum transport of the strong
synoptic flow aloft may support severe gusts within the squall line. Furthermore, if strong enough low-level WAA can appreciably
destabilize the nocturnal boundary-layer, then isolated QLCS
tornadoes may also occur. Any QLCS tornadoes that can develop will
most likely occur with any LEWPS or mesovortices within portions of
the squall line preceding the surface low track, where low-level
winds will be most backed and low-level shear will be strongest.

..Squitieri.. 11/16/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 170655
SWODY2
SPC AC 170654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a
tornado will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern
Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is
expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and
evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains
eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley...
A negatively-tilted mid-level trough is forecast to be in the
southern High Plains at the start of the period. A squall-line is
expected to be ongoing ahead of the trough at 12Z from central and
north Texas into southern Oklahoma. Along the leading edge of this
organized linear MCS, a wind-damage threat is expected Monday
morning. A tornado will also be possible with any rotating element
within the line. The line is expected to weaken by midday as the
mid-level trough moves away to the northeast, with the associated
low moving into the central Plains. As surface heating takes place,
additional thunderstorms are expected to develop during the
afternoon across parts of the southern and central Plains. Isolated
severe gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger cells.
Ahead of the trough, an isolated wind-damage and/or tornado threat
may develop across the lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks during the
late afternoon. The severe threat is expected to be marginal due to
very weak instability.

...Sabine Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley...
In the wake of the mid-level trough, southwesterly mid-level flow
will be in place across the western Gulf Coast states on Monday. A
moist and unstable airmass is forecast to move from far southeast
Texas late Monday afternoon into southern Louisiana during the
evening. Thunderstorms will likely develop across much of the Lower
Mississippi Valley, as low-level flow increases in the evening.
Model consensus suggests that MCS development will be likely across
parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. A relatively large number of
storms should help to overturn much of the airmass. Also, the
stronger mid-level flow is forecast to remain well to the north,
suggesting that any wind-damage threat associated with the MCS
should be marginal.

..Broyles.. 11/17/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 171731
SWODY2
SPC AC 171730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a
few tornadoes will be possible across parts of north Texas into
central Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is
expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and
evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains
eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted and pronounced mid-level trough over the
southern Plains will quickly eject into the MS Valley in tandem with
a rapidly deepening surface low tomorrow (Monday). A potentially
severe squall line is expected to be ongoing at the start of the
period across north TX into central OK. Through the afternoon
though, stronger upper support should become increasingly displaced
from the better low-level moisture and instability to the south,
supporting a more isolated severe threat across portions of the MO
Valley into the southern MS Valley later in the day toward evening.
An additional round of isolated strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms may also develop closer to the surface low over
central and eastern KS tomorrow afternoon as well.

...Southern Plains into the MO Valley...
A QLCS/squall-line should be in progress immediately ahead of a
surface low across southwestern OK into northwestern TX at 12Z
Monday morning. The squall line will continue to move east-northeast
with the surface low amid a 70+ kt southerly low-level jet,
overspread by 70-90 kts of southwesterly 500 mb flow from the
ejecting trough. Large and curved hodographs should precede the
squall line amid 500 J/kg SBCAPE, driven mainly by mid 60s F surface
dewpoints beneath poor mid-level lapse rates. Despite meager
buoyancy through the troposphere, strong forcing for ascent and
impressive deep-layer/low-level shear profiles may still support
severe gusts and a few tornadoes during the morning hours.

Through the afternoon and evening hours, QG ascent associated with
the northeastward ejecting mid-level trough, and the surface low,
will outpace the richer low-level moisture closer to the Red River,
which may dampen the severe threat to a degree. Nonetheless, the
persistence of strong shear and forcing with the eastward-tracking
squall line will support the potential for a severe gust or a
tornado.

...Southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley...
As the mid-level trough and surface cyclone track toward the Mid-MS
Valley through the day, trailing portions of the aforementioned
squall line will interact with an increasingly moist and unstable
boundary layer across southeastern TX into the Lower MS Valley.
Furthermore, guidance consensus shows that the entrance region of
the low-level jet may also persist across eastern TX and points east
ahead of the squall line, encouraging modestly elongated and curved
hodographs and 200+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH. As such, a couple of severe
gusts and perhaps a tornado or two may develop if more pronounced
mesovortices or embedded supercell structures can develop within the
squall line.

...Central and eastern KS...
Behind the initial squall line and broader
cloudy/precipitation-laden WAA regime, some clearing may take place
immediately ahead of the surface low track, allowing for marginal boundary-layer destabilization. As such, a couple of thunderstorms
may develop ahead of the surface low amid modestly steep
tropospheric lapse rates and unidirectional vertical wind
profiles/strong speed shear. Any of the more robust updrafts that
can develop may produce a severe gust, tornado, or instance of
marginally severe hail during the afternoon.

..Squitieri.. 11/17/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 180634
SWODY2
SPC AC 180633

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a
tornado will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on
Tuesday.

...Central Gulf Coast States...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place over much of the
Southeast on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the
region. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front in the
Gulf Coast states, with surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower
70s F. As surface heating takes place during the day, thunderstorm
development is expected from near the front eastward across the much
of the moist sector. Although instability will be weak, strong
low-level flow will aid convective development, and a few severe
storms will be possible. The greatest severe threat will exist in
the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast, where the combination of
low-level shear and moisture may be enough for an isolated tornado
threat.

..Broyles.. 11/18/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 181703
SWODY2
SPC AC 181702

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a
tornado will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on
Tuesday.

...Central Gulf Coast...
The potent mid-level trough moving across the central Plains and
Midwest on D1/Monday will move into the Great Lakes and weaken on
D2/Tuesday. A slow advancing cold front will be left in its wake
from the southern Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast. An
anomalously moist airmass will be in place with all time daily
maximum PWAT values likely from Slidell, LA to Wilmington, OH with
likely top 5 monthly all time maximum values. As a result, extensive
cloudcover and precipitation is expected across the warm sector
which will limit instability. In addition, forcing will be weakening
through the day. The combination of the meager instability and lack
of forcing will limit severe weather potential except for where
upper 60s dewpoints are forecast, which should support at least some instability and damaging wind threat.

The best potential for severe weather will be across far southeast
LA, far southern MS/AL, and the FL Panhandle, where low 70s
dewpoints will support around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE. Ahead of the
front, significant low-level wind shear will be present with 40
knots of flow at 1km and low-level veering winds. Therefore, some
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible with any
stronger storms which can develop in this region during the day.

...Pacific Northwest...
Cellular convection is possible along the Pacific Northwest coast
after 06Z Wed as temperatures cool aloft and 200-400 J/kg MLCAPE
develops along the coast. Any of these storms could have some gusty
winds associated with them given around 40 knots of synoptic flow
around 500 meters above the surface.

..Bentley.. 11/18/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 190551
SWODY2
SPC AC 190550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms
are most likely over parts of Florida and the Carolinas, and along
the coastal Pacific Northwest.

...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, a deep upper trough will extend from a low over
northern MN southward toward the Ozarks, and will pivot northeast
across the OH Valley and Midwestern states, becoming negatively
tilted. A tight midlevel temperature gradient and 130 kt speed max
will relax somewhat through 00Z. Then, a secondary strong speed max
will develop overnight from the mid MS Valley into the southern
Appalachians.

Meanwhile, an upper ridge will gradually move east toward the
Rockies, with resulting northwest flow regime across the Plains.

At the surface, high pressure will be entrenched from the Rockies
into the central and southern Plains, and extending into the Gulf of
Mexico where strong offshore flow will exist. A low will develop
near Lake Erie during the day, with the cold front pushing into the
Mid Atlantic to the Carolinas late in the day.

...Carolinas...
Low-level moisture with 60s F dewpoints will spread north across the
eastern Carolinas and into southeast VA through 00Z ahead of the
cold front. Deep-layer shear will increase as the upper trough
swings east, with very weak instability developing.

Forecast soundings indicate poor low-level lapse rates/heating, with substantial midlevel drying. In addition, a prominent subsidence
inversion is present in several model depictions. Given a lack of
appreciable low-level flow fields to support wind gusts, strong
storms are not expected.

...Florida...
Area of thunderstorms are forecast over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
early on Wednesday, with a plume of instability ahead of a cold
front. While some of this activity will move across the Peninsula,
it appears the boundary layer will be relatively cool. As such,
despite the moderate low-level SRH during the morning along the
western coasts, most of it should be rendered in-effective.

...Ohio and Vicinity...
A very strong vorticity maximum will travel east across IN, OH, the
upper OH Valley and into western PA and Lake Erie on Wednesday.
Large-scale ascent will be strong, with rapidly cooling temperatures
aloft. Shallow convection may develop with limited heating along the
cold front, which will itself result in gusty winds with 30 kt
ambient flow just off the surface. While severe storms are unlikely,
a flash or two cannot be ruled out given such cool temperatures
aloft.

...Coastal Pacific Northwest...
Strong cooling aloft on the north size of a midlevel temperature
gradient will exist over northwest OR into western WA with a slowly
weakening midlevel jet. Weak low-level CAPE will develop mainly over
the water. However, some cams show low-topped storms possibly moving
ashore, and wind shear will be strong. While locally strong gusts
cannot be ruled out, the severe risk appears low at this time.

..Jewell.. 11/19/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 191729
SWODY2
SPC AC 191727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms
are most likely over parts of Florida and the Carolinas, and along
the coastal Pacific Northwest.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper trough/low will evolve eastward from the Upper MS
Valley into the Great Lakes through the period. In response, a
surface low will deepen and gradually occlude over the Great Lakes,
while a related cold front moves eastward across the eastern states.
Strong midlevel height falls preceding the upper trough will promote
scattered showers with isolated/embedded lightning along/ahead of
the cold front. Despite strong deep-layer westerly flow/shear
accompanying the trough, limited heating/poor lapse rates and dry
air aloft should limit updraft intensity. Over the western FL
Peninsula, richer boundary-layer moisture will be in place
along/ahead of the front, where guidance indicates a weak frontal
wave low during the morning. Here, strong low-level flow (and curved
low-level hodographs) could favor a few strong/rotating storms
approaching the coast, though weak instability/lapse rates should
limit the severe threat over land.

Farther west, several perturbations embedded in a belt of strong mid/upper-level westerly flow -- within the base of a midlevel low
off the BC coast -- will promote isolated thunderstorms across the
Pacific Northwest coast through the period. Elongated hodographs
(with ample low-level curvature) will conditionally support a few strong/embedded cells capable of locally strong gusts and possibly
waterspouts. However, any severe threat onshore appears too
conditional for severe probabilities at this time.

..Weinman.. 11/19/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 200650
SWODY2
SPC AC 200648

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A stable pattern in terms of thunderstorm potential will exist
across the CONUS on Thursday, with a large upper cyclone over the
eastern states and a ridge over the Rockies. High pressure will
stretch from the Great Basin/Rockies across the Plains and into the
Southeast, with a low over the Northeast. This will result in
offshore flow across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic, and
maintain a relatively CAPE-free air mass over land.

A very low change of sporadic lightning flashes may brush parts of
southern New England as moisture and elevated theta-e wraps
northwestward toward the surface low. However, this instability will
be elevated in nature, with such low values suggesting less than 10%
chance of lightning.

..Jewell.. 11/20/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 201706
SWODY2
SPC AC 201704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper level low will rotate eastward across the eastern
CONUS tomorrow. A surface low will deepen and eventually occlude
into the interior Northeast during the afternoon/evening. Isentropic
ascent will lead to some elevated instability and thunderstorm
potential from the Mid-Atlantic to New England tomorrow morning and
afternoon. Weak instability should mitigate any severe weather
concerns.

Cold air aloft will result in some weak instability across the
northeast Pacific. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the
Washington coast, primarily during the morning and early afternoon.

..Bentley.. 11/20/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210614
SWODY2
SPC AC 210612

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Pacific Northwest Coast
on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A large, deep upper low will exist over the northeast Friday
morning, and will gradually weaken as it drifts east through the
period. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will slowly shift east from the
Rockies into the Plains, while yet another trough pushes across the
Pacific Northwest region late.

Substantial northwest surface winds will maintain relatively stable
conditions from the Plains to the East Coast, with no instability
forecast over much of the CONUS.

The exception will be again along the coastal counties of WA and OR,
as strong cooling aloft occurs. Scattered low-topped convection will
be most likely over the ocean overnight. A few thunderstorms may
move onshore, but at this time the stronger shear farther north does
not appear to overlap with the minimal instability required for a
severe threat.

..Jewell.. 11/21/2024

$$

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