ACUS11 KWNS 262155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262154
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-262330-

Mesoscale Discussion 2142
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southwestern NE into far northwestern KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 262154Z - 262330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated instances of large hail and locally severe wind
gusts will be possible for the next couple hours or so. Storm
coverage may remain too limited for a watch, though trends are being
monitored.

DISCUSSION...Within a zone of broadly confluent low-level flow
across parts of southwestern NE, diurnal heating amid lower 60s
dewpoints has aided in the development of isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon. A long/straight hodograph (around 35-40 kt of
effective shear) and steep midlevel lapse rates/moderate
surface-based buoyancy may continue to promote splitting supercells
and a risk of large hail and locally severe wind gusts. Given
minimal large-scale forcing for ascent, overall storm coverage may
remain too limited for a watch. However, given the favorable
environment and ongoing mode evolution, trends are being monitored.

..Weinman/Smith.. 08/26/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7JsyXvsG-f53doIsb5oIFSsXd-zd81uied8rHJSWRVAJYP6j78yioLukKnctAcSYoOuVFt-yfRyKIWCoJnPumLoQ_uw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 39560016 39830089 40380173 40670200 40960205 41180195
41400155 41430113 40949999 40469938 39999943 39719971
39560016

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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