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  • DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 14:05:46 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 170645
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 170644

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0144 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

    Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
    OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and
    strong wind gusts from eastern Colorado into parts of Nebraska
    Wednesday afternoon/evening.

    ...Central Plains...

    Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the region on
    Wednesday. In the wake of a prior cold frontal passage, easterly
    low-level winds will maintain modest boundary layer moisture across
    the High Plains, with somewhat deeper moisture further east into
    central NE. A plume of steeper midlevel lapse rates will overspread
    the region, and a corridor of moderate to strong instability is
    forecast. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40+ kt effective
    shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs are evident in
    forecast soundings. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
    expected to develop within the low-level warm advection/upslope flow
    regime during the afternoon into the evening. Isolated large hail
    and strong outflow winds will be possible.

    ...Mid-South vicinity...

    An MCV may be located over KS Wednesday morning. This feature will
    migrate eastward as a surface boundary sags southward across parts
    of the Ozark Plateau into the Lower OH Valley. A corridor of rich
    boundary layer moisture will be in place near the surface boundary,
    promoting a narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability.
    However, forecast soundings indicated capping may rapidly increase
    downstream of the Ozarks into southeast MO and western TN/KY. It is
    possible that a narrow corridor of severe potential could develop
    somewhere from the Ozarks into the Mid-South as the MCV and surface
    boundary impinge on the area. However, confidence is low, precluding
    severe probabilities at this time.

    ..Leitman.. 08/17/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 19:32:52 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 171932
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 171931

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0231 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

    Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
    THE OZARKS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail, and
    strong wind gusts from the central/northern Plains to the
    Mid-Mississippi Valley. A tornado threat may also exist across the
    Ozarks to Mid-Mississippi Valley.

    ...Central High Plains to the northern Plains...
    Moderate instability with moderate to effective shear will be
    present across a large portion of the central High Plains into the
    northern Plains on Wednesday. As a weak mid-level shortwave trough
    crosses the region, storms are expected to develop across the
    Colorado Rockies and move into the adjacent Plains Wednesday
    afternoon. A hot, well-mixed environment will support severe wind
    gusts, but given the moderate to strong mid-upper level flow, a
    supercell could develop which would have a greater hail threat.

    Farther north, storm coverage is less certain as heights are
    forecast to rise slightly through the afternoon. However, a front
    will exist across the region which may be a focus for isolated
    storms. The wind profile should support supercells with any activity
    that develops. The primary threats with this activity would be large
    hail and severe wind gusts.

    ...Central Plains...
    Convective coverage is less certain across the central Plains as it
    is removed from the primary surface features. However, a supercell
    environment will be in place and some guidance (such as the RRFS,
    ECMWF, and FV3) have storms in this vicinity, likely related to
    outflow from morning convection across Nebraska. If these storms
    form any supercells would be capable of large hail and severe wind
    gusts.

    ...Ozarks to the Mid-Mississippi Valley...
    A more focused corridor of storms may develop along a frontal zone
    across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. Moderate to strong
    instability is forecast with a 50 to 55 knot mid-level jet streak
    across the region. Supercell should be the primary storm mode with
    any activity within this zone. In addition, this activity could pose
    some tornado threat as hodographs show moderate low-level
    directional shear and a warm front in the region.

    ..Bentley.. 08/17/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 18 07:28:58 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 180728
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 180727

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

    Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
    THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH
    CAROLINA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Thursday from
    Minnesota into Nebraska and northern Kansas, producing large hail
    and localized wind damage. Scattered storms may also produce locally
    severe gusts from eastern Virginia into North Carolinas.

    ...Northern Plains...
    An upper ridge will build over the West on Thursday, with tightening
    midlevel height gradient over the northern Plains. This will result
    in increasing winds out of the northwest, with over 40 kt at 500 mb.
    At the surface, a trough/wind shift is forecast to extend roughly
    from MN into NE, with steep lapse rates developing. Storms will
    likely form along this boundary during the afternoon, with scattered
    cells producing large hail. Some predictability issues exist amongst
    models, and therefore will defer a categorical upgrade to later
    updates. The combination of 40+ kt of deep layer shear, steep lapse
    rates and 60s F dewpoints may support hail at or above 2.00"
    diameter.

    ...Eastern VA and NC...
    A mid/upper wave will cross the Appalachians as a surface trough
    develops during the afternoon. This will bring midlevel winds of
    30-40 kt across MD/VA and into northern NC, aiding deep-layer shear
    as well as overall mean wind speeds. At least isolated severe storms
    appear possible from eastern VA into NC where 70s F dewpoints will
    support moderate instability, with favorable afternoon timing
    supporting localized wind damage.

    ..Jewell.. 08/18/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 18 19:31:56 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 181931
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 181930

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

    Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS
    PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO
    UPPER MIDWEST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    A few strong to severe storms are possible Thursday across parts of
    the Mid Atlantic and north central Great Plains into Upper Midwest.

    ...Discussion...
    In advance of weak, large-scale mid-level troughing slowly
    approaching the Pacific coast, mid-level ridging may continue to
    amplify northward through the northern U.S. and Canadian Rockies, to
    the north of a prominent mid-level high slowly shifting northeast of
    the Four Corners through this period. Downstream, broad mid-level
    troughing is forecast to begin to gradually shift to the north and
    east of the Great Lakes and Northeast, but weak lingering troughing
    upstream may continue dig southeast of the middle Mississippi/lower
    Ohio valley toward the southern Appalachians. One or two,
    convective generated or augmented, perturbations may accelerate
    northeastward out of the Ohio Valley through the northern Mid
    Atlantic after emerging from the latter regime. In their wake, it
    appears that a surface frontal zone will continue a southward
    progression, reaching the southern Mid Atlantic, northern Gulf
    States and southern Great Plains Red River Valley by 12Z Friday.

    Based on latest model output, convective potential through this
    period still appears relatively limited, or at least uncertain due
    to its dependence on sub-synoptic developments with low
    predictability at this time frame. As a result, the prior outlook
    for this period has largely remained unchanged.

    ...Mid Atlantic/Southeast...
    Latest model output suggests that stronger pre-frontal
    destabilization to the east of the Appalachians may be confined to
    the coastal plain, from northern North Carolina through the Delmarva
    Peninsula. Coupled with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric flow
    and forcing for ascent downstream of the approaching convectively
    augmented perturbation, the environment may become conducive to
    thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

    ...North central Great Plains into Upper Midwest...
    A narrow corridor of stronger destabilization appears at least
    possible ahead of a short wave perturbation digging within modest
    northwesterly mid-level flow. It is possible that this could become
    sufficient to promote a risk for widely scattered strong storms with
    potential to produce severe hail and wind late Thursday afternoon
    into evening.

    ...Southwest...
    Mid-level flow may transition to at least a bit more of a component
    to the south of east during this period, but still potentially
    conducive to propagation of convection off the higher terrain of
    central and southeastern Arizona, given sufficient destabilization
    in lower elevations. This remains uncertain due to potential
    impacts of convection Wednesday through Wednesday night, so will
    hold off on adding low severe probabilities for wind at this time.

    ..Kerr.. 08/18/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 19 07:38:28 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 190738
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 190737

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0237 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

    Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEBRASKA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered storms, some with severe wind gusts, are possible Friday
    afternoon over parts of the Carolinas. Isolated to scattered
    damaging hail and wind may occur over parts of the central Plains.

    ...Central Plains...
    Northwest winds aloft will increase across the central and northern
    Plains on Friday as a shortwave trough glances the area, and an
    upper ridge builds to the west. Temperatures aloft will also cool
    across this region, with -10 C at 500 mb pushing south to I-70 by
    Saturday morning.

    Strong and heating and a surface trough will develop during the
    afternoon across the northern to central High Plains, with southeast
    surface winds across the Plains. Sufficient moisture should remain
    in place for moderate instability to develop across much of NE and
    surrounding areas.

    While storm coverage is a bit uncertain, the conditional threat of
    large hail is high with elongated hodographs and deep-layer shear
    over 50 kt. Storms should form near the surface trough over
    southwest SD into northwest NE, and proceed southeastward. Swaths of
    damaging hail and wind are forecast.

    ...Carolinas...
    A weak upper trough will affect the northeastern quarter of the
    CONUS, with 20 kt midlevel winds extending south into the Carolinas.
    A front is forecast to move south across NC, with low pressure into
    SC an GA. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front,
    with mid 70s F dewpoints. Daytime heating will yield strong
    instability, with a strong signal for convection along this
    boundary. Numerous storms may occur, with strong to severe outflow
    winds.

    ..Jewell.. 08/19/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 19 19:09:46 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 191909
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 191908

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0208 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

    Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated to scattered damaging hail (some greater than 2 inch
    diamter) and severe wind gusts may occur over parts of the central
    Plains late Friday afternoon and evening. Scattered storms, some
    with severe wind gusts, are possible Friday afternoon over parts of
    the Carolinas.

    ...Central Plains...

    Northwest flow aloft will strengthen further on Friday, with 40-60
    kt at 500 mb common across the Mid-MO Valley. At the surface, low
    pressure will develop along surface troughing across western NE/KS.
    Rich boundary-layer moisture will be in place across eastern NE/IA
    and southward across the Lower MO Valley. A plume of steep midlevel
    lapse rates will reside across the High Plains and spread eastward
    toward the MO River during the evening. These steep lapse rates atop
    the moist boundary layer will support a corridor of strong
    instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE). Meanwhile, forecast soundings
    indicate supercell wind profiles with nearly 50 kt effective shear
    magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs.

    Initial supercells should develop near the surface trough over
    southwest SD/northwest NE, and shift southeast through evening,
    posing a risk for large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts.
    Forecast guidance depicts a 40 kt southwesterly low-level jet
    developing across KS overnight. This may maintain clusters/promote
    upscale growth into an MCS during the nighttime hours, spreading
    southeast toward northwest MO by Saturday morning. If this occurs,
    damaging wind potential could increase/become the predominant severe
    hazard overnight.

    Additional more isolated storms could develop ahead of a
    southward-advancing cold front across Iowa overnight. Any storms
    that develop will likely be elevated, but will form in an
    environment supporting severe hail.

    ...Southeast...

    Scattered to numerous storms are forecast within a very moist and
    unstable environment along a surface trough extending northeast to
    southwest from NC into GA/southeast AL. Vertical shear is expected
    to remain very weak. Nevertheless, a mix of single and multi-cell
    convection will pose a risk for wet microbursts during the afternoon
    and early evening.

    ..Leitman.. 08/19/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 07:32:12 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 200731
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 200730

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

    Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
    OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND OVER PARTS OF THE
    NORTHWEST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Afternoon storms may produce marginal hail or wind gusts from the
    Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes, and over parts of the
    Northwest on Saturday.

    ...Upper OH Valley to Lower Great Lakes...
    An upper trough will dig across the Great Lakes/OH Valley on
    Saturday with a 50 kt backside speed max in the midlevels from MN
    into IL. While winds aloft will be weaker farther east, cooling
    aloft will overspread the entire region. Meanwhile, a cold front
    will push across Lower MI, IN and OH during the day, with a plume of
    1500 J/kg MLCAPE developing. This will support clusters of storms
    with strong to severe gust potential. The cool temperatures aloft
    and effective shear to 30 kt may also support marginal hail.

    ...Parts of eastern WA...ID...western MT...
    A shortwave trough will move across the Northwest on Saturday, with
    a 50-60 kt midlevel speed max moving across the region along with
    cooling aloft. This trough will steepen midlevel lapse rates,
    resulting in an unstable air mass as daytime heating occurs. Storms
    are likely to form near the surface trough, and spread across
    northern ID and into western MT through the evening and overnight.
    The strengthening wind fields combined with favorable lapse rates
    will support cells with marginal hail, as well as corridors of
    strong wind gusts.

    ..Jewell.. 08/20/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 19:17:10 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 201917
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 201915

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0215 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

    Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
    OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE OHIO VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Afternoon storms may produce marginal hail or wind gusts from the
    Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes, and over parts of the
    Northwest on Saturday.

    ...Midwest...

    An upper trough will dig and pivot southeast across the region on
    Saturday. At the surface, a front will extend from Lower MI to
    southern IL at the start of the period, with the boundary tracking east/southeast across the Ohio Valley through early Sunday. Ahead of
    the boundary, 60s F surface dewpoints beneath cooler midlevel
    temperatures will support moderate destabilization by afternoon.
    Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
    surface boundary and spread southeast through evening. This activity
    will pose a risk for marginal hail and strong wind gusts.

    ...Northern Rockies...

    An upper shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and
    northern Rockies on Saturday. This will bring enhanced southwesterly
    flow and cooling aloft over much of the region. Steepening midlevel
    lapse rates will support weak destabilization, and isolated to
    widely scattered thunderstorms are expected. A deeply mixed boundary
    layer beneath strengthening flow aloft will support strong outflow
    winds with this activity. Small hail could also occur with stronger
    cells.

    ...Lower MO Valley to AR/Mid-South...

    Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the region on
    Saturday. A surface front will drop southward across MO/IL into the
    Ozarks and Mid-South vicinity. Ahead of the front, a seasonally
    moist airmass will be in place, and moderate to strong instability
    is forecast. Some forecast guidance suggests a remnant MCV or
    outflow from prior convection could focus thunderstorm develop along
    the sagging surface front. Where the greatest coverage of
    thunderstorms occurs remains highly uncertain. If confidence
    increases in subsequent outlooks, wind probabilities could be needed
    for portions of the region.

    ..Leitman.. 08/20/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 07:33:16 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 210733
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 210731

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0231 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

    Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
    TO CENTRAL MONTANA AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and wind gusts
    are possible in portions of the Northeast and across parts of
    southwest and central Montana.

    ...Southwest into central Montana...
    A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest
    and into eastern British Columbia. While the parent trough is
    forecast to deamplify through the period, moderate mid-level flow is
    forecast to remain across much of Montana. Weak to potentially
    moderate instability is forecast to develop across southwest into
    central Montana. The moderate mid-level flow should provide ample
    shear for storm organization including some supercell potential.
    Strong heating will support steep low-level lapse rates and some
    severe wind gust threat with the strongest storms.

    ...Portions of the Northeast...
    A mid-level trough will become negatively tilted as it pivots from
    the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Sunday. A broad 1006-1010mb
    surface low is forecast somewhere in the vicinity of western New
    York, southeast Ontario and southern Quebec. Storms are forecast by
    mid-day along a cold front that should extend from New York into
    central Pennsylvania on Sunday morning and move eastward through the
    day. The environment ahead of this front is forecast to have
    moderate to strong shear and relatively weak instability. Forecast
    soundings show a lower storm top environment due to warmer
    temperatures aloft. However, despite the weak instability, the
    expectation for at least some supercell threat, combined with decent instability within the hail growth zone and strong shear may support
    some large hail and damaging wind gusts Sunday afternoon/evening.

    ..Bentley.. 08/21/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 19:29:48 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 211929
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 211928

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0228 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

    Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
    SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN
    GREAT PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong thunderstorm activity posing at least some risk for severe
    hail and wind appears possible across parts of the northern Rockies
    and Great Plains, and across parts of the Northeast, Sunday through
    Sunday night.

    ...Discussion...
    Models indicate that prominent mid/upper ridging centered across the
    southern Rockies through southern Great Plains will be maintained
    through this period. However, initially amplified ridging extending
    through the westerlies to the north of this feature is likely to
    become suppressed by a notable mid-level short wave trough, slowly
    progressing east-northeast of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies
    through the southern Canadian Prairies and adjacent international
    border vicinity.

    Downstream, large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to only make
    very slow eastward progress east of the Mississippi Valley through
    Atlantic Seaboard/western Atlantic vicinity, while an evolving
    embedded low slowly shifts eastward near/north of the lower Great
    Lakes region, in response to at least a couple of shorter wavelength perturbations pivoting around it.

    In lower-levels, the primary surface cyclone is forecast to migrate
    northward toward James Bay, with a weaker secondary low perhaps
    migrating inland across parts of the northern Mid Atlantic/southern
    New England, before weakening further. It appears that the
    composite leading edge of cooler low-level air trailing this
    feature, will stall and weaken across parts of the southern Great
    Plains and Gulf Coast into southern Mid Atlantic.

    ...Central and eastern Montana...
    There remains a signal in latest model output that forcing for
    ascent within the base of the progressive short wave trough will
    support increasing thunderstorm development across the higher
    terrain of central Montana by late afternoon. Coincident with
    strengthening westerly mid-level flow to 30-40+ kt, and the
    evolution of a strongly heated and fairy deeply mixed downstream
    boundary-layer (with at least modest CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg),
    there appears potential for the evolution of an upscale growing and
    organizing cluster into early evening. If this occurs, the
    environment appears conducive to an accompanying swath of strong to
    severe gusts across parts of central into eastern Montana by late
    Sunday evening.

    ...Dakotas...
    Forcing aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection downstream of
    the progressive short wave trough may become increasingly conducive
    to upscale growing thunderstorm development from the west/central
    Dakotas state border through central/eastern South Dakota Sunday
    evening into Sunday night. Aided by inflow of seasonably moist
    boundary-layer air supportive of CAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg,
    there appears potential for activity to become organized with
    potential to produce a swath or two of strong to severe gusts. The
    21/12Z NAM, in particular, generates a fairly notable convective
    perturbation in association with this development. If this signal
    becomes supported by more model output in later runs, severe
    probabilities may need to be upgraded further.

    ...Northern Mid Atlantic into southern New England...
    Forcing for ascent aided by an initial short wave impulse pivoting
    around the southeastern through eastern periphery of the Great Lakes
    mid-level low probably will provide support for increasing
    thunderstorm development across parts of eastern New York and
    Pennsylvania into southern New England during the day Sunday.
    Inland destabilization and vertical shear across this region remains
    a bit uncertain, but it possible the environment could become
    supportive of strong storms with potential to produce severe hail
    and wind.

    ..Kerr.. 08/21/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 22 06:53:08 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 220652
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 220651

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0151 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

    Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
    THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS....

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts
    are possible from the northern to central High Plains on Monday.

    ...Central to the Northern Plains...
    The strong ridge which has been present for much of the last 3 weeks
    will continue across the southern Plains and the High Plains.
    However, the northern extent of this ridge will be flattened with a
    frontal zone extending from the northern Plains into the central
    High Plains. Moderate instability is forecast along this frontal
    zone where isolated to scattered storms are expected on Monday. The
    strongest shear is expected across North Dakota into Minnesota where
    a 40 knot jet streak will overspread the region. Isolated storms may
    form along the front in this region during the day, but the better
    signal for storms is during the evening when a mid-level shortwave
    trough approaches the region from southern Canada.

    The greater diurnal storm coverage is anticipated in the Nebraska
    Panhandle and into southwest South Dakota. However, the weaker shear
    across this region may result in only marginally organized storms.
    Therefore, a few severe wind gusts are possible and thus the
    Marginal is warranted, but the relatively unorganized storm mode
    precludes higher severe weather probabilities at this time.

    ..Bentley.. 08/22/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 22 19:29:02 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 221928
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 221927

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0227 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

    Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN
    PLAINS...PARTS OF THE GULF COAST...AND MAINE...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms with at least isolated severe gusts/hail are possible
    across the northern Great Basin to the High Plains and northern
    Plains Monday afternoon and evening. A couple of damaging gusts may
    also occur with storms in Maine and along parts of the Gulf Coast.

    ...Synopsis...
    An upper ridge will remain in place across the western and central
    CONUS while an upper trough begins to eject into the Atlantic from
    New England on Monday. The embedded impulse responsible for cresting
    the ridge over the northern Rockies and encouraging severe storm
    development on Day 2 (Sunday) will overspread the northern High
    Plains on Monday. Weak lee troughing over the Plains will encourage
    modest low-level moisture advection beneath stronger westerly flow
    aloft, resulting in enough deep-layer ascent, amid coinciding
    buoyancy and vertical wind shear, to support isolated strong to
    severe thunderstorms.

    ...Central High Plains to the northern Plains...
    Upslope flow of 60s F surface dewpoints beneath 8 C/km mid-level
    lapse rates along the central and northern High Plains will yield
    2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE as a mid-level impulse begins to overspread
    the region. Over 30 kts of 500 mb flow and resultant deep-layer
    shear will coincide with this buoyancy, supporting the development
    of multicells and perhaps supercells by late Monday afternoon.
    Should more sustained supercells develop, an instance or two of 2+
    inch diameter hail or a 75+ mph gust cannot be ruled out given the aforementioned mid-level lapse rates. Slight risk probabilities may
    be needed in future outlooks pending higher confidence in greater
    storm coverage.

    ...Parts of the northern Great Basin to central Rockies...
    A deep and dry boundary layer should develop by afternoon peak
    heating, resulting in inverted-V thermodynamic profiles from the
    northern Great Basin into the central Rockies. Stronger westerly
    mid-level flow will overspread this dry and unstable boundary layer,
    promoting elongated hodographs and the tendency for storms to
    organize into multicells. Given the organized storm mode and
    evaporative cooling potential with the dry boundary layer in place,
    a few severe gusts may occur with the stronger storms.

    ...Maine...
    Deep-layer ascent ahead of the ejecting upper trough will support
    scattered thunderstorm development during the late morning into the
    afternoon hours. A belt of 60 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will
    pivot around the upper trough and overspread Main during the
    afternoon, when buoyancy will be maximized. MLCAPE may exceed 750
    J/kg with over 50 kts of effective bulk/speed shear given highly
    elongated hodographs. Therefore, any storms that develop may become multicellular or transient supercellular in nature, posting an
    isolated damaging gust/hail threat through the afternoon.

    ...Parts of the Gulf Coast...
    Another hot and humid day is expected along the Gulf Coast, where
    strong surface heating amid mid 70s F dewpoints will yield MLCAPE
    over 2000 J/kg. Despite weak tropospheric flow, enough
    moisture-fueled buoyancy will support the potential for wet
    downbursts capable of damaging gusts during the afternoon.

    ..Squitieri.. 08/22/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 23 07:29:22 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 230729
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 230728

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0228 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

    Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWESTERN
    KANSAS AND VICINITY....

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across portions of
    the central Plains, the Southeast, and the Upper Midwest on Tuesday.
    A more focused region of severe wind gusts is possible across
    portions of the central High Plains.

    ...Upper Midwest...
    A mid-level shortwave trough will move southeastward from the
    Canadian Prairies into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. A surface low,
    and associated cold front, will move relatively quickly
    southeastward through the day. Mid 60s dewpoints are forecast ahead
    of this front which will result in moderate instability. Moderate
    flow associated with the mid-level jet streak will provide ample
    shear for storm organization. Storms will likely be ongoing at the
    beginning of the period near the Canadian border which may result in
    a somewhat messy storm mode through the day. However, farther south,
    more isolated storm development is possible. Given storm motion
    normal to the front and moderate mid-level flow, supercells will be
    possible. Relatively weak mid-level lapse rates and warmer
    temperatures aloft may limit the large hail threat somewhat.

    ...Central Plains...
    A reservoir of strong instability is forecast across the central
    Plains where low 70s dewpoints are expected on Tuesday
    afternoon/evening. A weak mid-level shortwave trough (perhaps
    enhanced by Day 2 convection) is consistently shown among guidance
    which should move across this region during the afternoon/evening.
    The combination of a strongly unstable warm sector and forcing from
    this mid-level shortwave trough should result in scattered to
    widespread storm development Tuesday afternoon/evening. Effective
    shear around 30 to 35 knots should result in a combination of
    multicells and supercells initially with one or more clusters
    developing by evening as storms grow upscale. The most favorable
    region for a greater coverage of severe wind gusts will likely exist
    across northwest Kansas and vicinity where diurnal timing is favored
    and storm mode transition is expected.

    ...Southeast...
    Strong heating is expected along the Gulf Coast south of a frontal
    zone. Shear will be very weak, but PWAT in excess of 2 inches and
    the hot air mass should support water-loaded downdrafts capable of
    isolated damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening
    hours. A slightly greater coverage of storms and severe potential
    may exist across MS/AL downstream of early morning elevated
    convection forecast to develop across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

    ..Bentley.. 08/23/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 23 19:32:30 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 231932
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 231930

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

    Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    At least widely scattered severe storms are likely across portions
    of the central Plains on Tuesday. More isolated severe storms may
    also occur across parts of the Southeast and the Upper Mississippi
    Valley.

    ...Synopsis...
    A synoptic scale mid-level anticyclone will overspread most of the
    western and central CONUS on Tuesday, with multiple mid-level
    impulses poised to pivot around the anticyclone across the Plains
    states into the Upper- and Mid-MS Valleys. The most pronounced
    impulse, in the form of a mid-level shortwave trough, will traverse
    the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon, supporting a surface trough
    with a cold front draping southwestward across the Plains. Along and
    ahead of the cold front, enough deep-layer shear and ascent, in
    tandem with adequate buoyancy, will support at least scattered
    severe storms across the southern and central High Plains into the
    Upper MS Valley.

    ...Central and southern High Plains...
    As a mid-level impulse crests the ridge and tracks southeastward
    across the northern Plains, a cold front will drift
    south-southeastward across NE. Meanwhile, upslope moist low-level
    flow will encourage both increased instability and convergence along
    the immediate lee of the Rockies over NM and CO. 8 C/km mid-level
    lapse rates will overspread 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding
    2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE, with the strongest buoyancy expected
    immediately ahead of the cold front over northeast CO into NE. Here,
    the greatest severe threat exists since 40 kts of effective bulks
    shear will also coincide with the aforementioned buoyancy, with
    severe wind- and hail-producing multicells and supercells expected.
    There is some indication for the potential of cold-pool mergers and
    subsequent development of an MCS. If this occurs, a severe wind
    swath would manifest across the central High Plains. Farther south
    into the southern High Plains, a deep and dry boundary layer will
    compensate for weaker vertical wind shear to support a severe gust
    threat in association with dry downbursts, driven by evaporative
    cooling.

    ...Upper MS Valley...
    A narrow tongue of at least mid 60s F surface dewpoints will advect
    ahead of a surface trough/cold front Tuesday afternoon. Though
    mid-level lapse rates may be modest, the rich low-level moisture
    will support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore, southwesterly
    surface winds beneath stronger northwesterly flow aloft support
    modestly elongated and curved hodographs, with supercells possible.
    All severe hazards are possible with these storms, including an
    instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail and perhaps a couple of
    tornadoes. An upgrade to Slight Risk may be needed in future
    outlooks if consensus and consistency among guidance members
    indicates relatively greater storm coverage.

    ...Portions of the Gulf Coast...
    Another day of deep-layer north-northwesterly flow, atop a very
    moist boundary layer (i.e. 70s F surface dewpoints), will encourage multicellular development amid 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. The stronger
    storm cores may support wet downdrafts, the strongest of which may
    produce isolated wind damage.

    ..Squitieri.. 08/23/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 24 07:30:46 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 240730
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 240729

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0229 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

    Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
    CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
    VALLEY...AND THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central
    High Plains, Ozarks into the Lower Mississippi Valley, and in the
    Midwest into the Great Lakes.

    ...Midwest into the Great Lakes...
    A mid-level shortwave trough will advance through the Great Lakes on
    Wednesday. A surface cold front will move southeastward through the
    period with thunderstorms developing along it by mid-afternoon.
    Upper 60 to low 70s dewpoints will result in moderate instability.
    Multicell clusters and perhaps a few supercells will be possible
    along and ahead of the cold front during the afternoon and into the
    evening. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the
    primary threat. However, some low-level wind shear could result in a
    localized tornado threat with any supercells which develop.

    ...Central High Plains...
    A weakening of the mid-level ridge will support scattered storm
    development within a weak upslope flow regime across eastern
    Colorado on Wednesday. These storms will form on the southwestern
    periphery of the stronger mid-level flow traversing the northeastern
    portion of the upper-level ridge. This may result in sufficient
    shear for a few south-southeasterly moving supercells capable of
    large hail and severe wind gusts.

    ...Ozarks into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
    A weak surface low will drift slowly southeastward along a frontal
    boundary into the ArkLaTex on Wednesday. Strong heating is expected
    with temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. This deeply-mixed
    and uncapped airmass will support scattered thunderstorm development
    by mid-afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft is relatively weak (~20
    knots). This will likely result in mostly unorganized storms with a
    few multicell clusters. Despite the relatively weak shear, the
    strong heating will support some damaging wind gusts.

    ..Bentley.. 08/24/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 24 19:31:54 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 241931
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 241930

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

    Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
    SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
    VALLEY...AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected across parts
    of the central and southern High Plains, Great Lakes into the Ohio
    Valley, and parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging/severe
    gusts are the main threat across these regions.

    ...Synopsis...
    An upper ridge will stagnate over the western and central CONUS
    through Wednesday, with an upper trough expected to progress over
    eastern Canada, resulting in a broad northwesterly upper-air regime
    with surface troughing over the MS Valley and Midwest. Seasonably
    rich low-level moisture will overspread portions of the High Plains,
    as well as the Great Lakes and portions of the Lower MS Valley,
    aiding in the development of scattered strong to severe
    thunderstorms.

    ...Central and Southern High Plains...
    Another day of moist upslope low-level flow is expected across
    portions of the central and southern High Plains, where orographic
    lift will support convective initiation by mid afternoon. 60s F
    surface dewpoints will advect northwestward beneath mid-level lapse
    rates of at least 8 C/km, yielding 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer
    shear should remain rather modest, but given modestly elongated
    hodographs, over 30 kts of effective bulk shear is likely in spots,
    which will support at least transient supercells. Isolated instances
    of severe wind and hail are the primary threats. If greater storm
    coverage and/or shear becomes apparent, a Slight Risk upgrade may be
    needed in future outlooks.

    ...Great Lakes into the OH Valley...
    A wedge of 60s F surface dewpoints will advect north-northeast ahead
    of the approaching surface trough, beneath 6-6.5 C/km mid-level
    lapse rates, resulting in 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Thunderstorm
    initiation should take place along/ahead of the surface trough as
    surface temperatures rise into the mid 70s F by afternoon. Modest
    veering and strengthening of the flow with height will encourage
    over 35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by hodographs
    with some curvature and elongation. Multicells, line segments, and
    supercells are the expected storm mode, with severe wind/hail the
    primary concerns. At the moment, expected limited storm coverage
    precludes Slight risk probabilities.

    ...Lower MS Valley...
    Thunderstorm development is expected Wednesday afternoon with the
    heating of a very moist boundary layer, characterized by mid 70s F
    surface dewpoints. Some organization into multicellular complexes is
    possible given modest vertical speed shear as the region is grazed
    by the aforementioned deep-layer northwesterly flow. MLCAPE will
    likely reach 2000-3000 J/kg supporting wet downbursts with damaging
    gust potential.

    ..Squitieri.. 08/24/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 25 07:31:42 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 250731
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 250730

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

    Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
    THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across
    portions of the central High Plains and the Mid-Atlantic to the
    Northeast.

    ...Northeast...
    A broad mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward toward the
    Northeast on Thursday. A weak surface low will move across Quebec
    with a cold front extending southward into the Northeast and eastern
    Great Lakes. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of the front
    with broad ascent supporting storm development both along and ahead
    of the cold front. Multicell clusters capable of damaging winds, and
    perhaps isolated large hail, are expected. A more focused region of
    greater potential may exist from central Pennsylvania into eastern
    New York. The potential for cloud cover across the region casts some uncertainty and therefore, confidence was not high enough for a
    Slight Risk at this time.

    ...Central High Plains...
    Isolated to scattered storms are expected within an upslope flow
    regime from eastern Colorado into western Nebraska and southwest
    South Dakota on Thursday afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show
    moderate instability with 30 to 35 knots of northwesterly effective
    shear. This could support some supercell potential including some 2+
    inch hail and 75+ mph wind gusts. Isolated storm coverage remains
    the primary limiting factor to greater severe weather probabilities
    at this time.

    ...Lower MS Valley...
    Moderate to strong instability is expected across the Lower MS
    Valley on Thursday. Shear will be weak, but there is some potential
    for a more focused cluster of storms to develop, perhaps associated
    with a remnant MCV from Day2/Wed convection across Arkansas. If a
    more organized cluster develops, the moist environment and moderate
    to strong instability may support some damaging wind gusts. Given
    uncertainties about the location and intensity of Day 1 and Day 2
    convection, confidence is not high enough to add severe weather
    probabilities at this time.

    ..Bentley/Afwa.. 08/25/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 25 07:35:14 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 250735
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 250734

    Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0234 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

    Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
    THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across
    portions of the central High Plains and the Mid-Atlantic to the
    Northeast.

    ...Northeast...
    A broad mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward toward the
    Northeast on Thursday. A weak surface low will move across Quebec
    with a cold front extending southward into the Northeast and eastern
    Great Lakes. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of the front
    with broad ascent supporting storm development both along and ahead
    of the cold front. Multicell clusters capable of damaging winds, and
    perhaps isolated large hail, are expected. A more focused region of
    greater potential may exist from central Pennsylvania into eastern
    New York. The potential for cloud cover across the region casts some uncertainty and therefore, confidence was not high enough for a
    Slight Risk at this time.

    ...Central High Plains...
    Isolated to scattered storms are expected within an upslope flow
    regime from eastern Colorado into western Nebraska and southwest
    South Dakota on Thursday afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show
    moderate instability with 30 to 35 knots of northwesterly effective
    shear. This could support some supercell potential including some 2+
    inch hail and 75+ mph wind gusts. Isolated storm coverage remains
    the primary limiting factor to greater severe weather probabilities
    at this time.

    ...Lower MS Valley...
    Moderate to strong instability is expected across the Lower MS
    Valley on Thursday. Shear will be weak, but there is some potential
    for a more focused cluster of storms to develop, perhaps associated
    with a remnant MCV from Day2/Wed convection across Arkansas. If a
    more organized cluster develops, the moist environment and moderate
    to strong instability may support some damaging wind gusts. Given
    uncertainties about the location and intensity of Day 1 and Day 2
    convection, confidence is not high enough to add severe weather
    probabilities at this time.

    ..Bentley.. 08/25/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 25 19:14:16 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 251914
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 251913

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0213 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

    Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE NORTHEAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts
    of the Northeast on Thursday. Damaging wind, hail and a tornado or
    two may accompany these storms.

    ...Ohio Valley into the Northeast...

    Modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the region to
    the east of the upper trough axis oriented from the Great Lakes to
    TN Valley on Thursday. At the surface, a front will develop
    east/southeast across the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes through
    the period. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface boundary
    will maintain 60s F dewpoints, supporting weak to moderate
    destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley toward the Hudson Valley
    (decreasing across New England). Scattered thunderstorm development
    is expected during the afternoon and continuing through the evening.
    Forecast soundings suggest supercells will be possible, with an
    accompanying risk of damaging winds, hail, and possibly a tornado or
    two where backed low-level winds persist.

    Scattered thunderstorm clusters are expected with southwest extent
    into southern OH/eastern KY/WV/VA as several shortwave impulses/MCVs
    migrate through southwesterly flow from the southern to central
    Appalachians. Vertical shear will be weaker further south, but a
    moist and unstable airmass could support strong wet microbursts.

    ...Central High Plains...

    The amplified upper ridge will develop eastward toward the High
    Plains on Thursday. Low-level moisture will be more limited across
    eastern CO/NM and vicinity. However, southeasterly low-level flow
    near a surface boundary will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F
    dewpoints across portions of NE toward the Black Hills in SD.
    Isolated storms are expected to develop over the Black Hills and
    within the low-level warm advection regime with southeast extent
    into NE. Supercell wind profiles suggest strong outflow winds and
    large hail (some possibly 2+ inch diameter) will be possible. Storm
    coverage with southward extent is uncertain, but will maintain the
    Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for now given a conditionally
    supportive environment.

    ..Leitman.. 08/25/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 26 07:21:20 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 260721
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 260720

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0220 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

    Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
    GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS....

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northern
    Georgia into the Carolinas and the northern Plains.

    ...Central Plains...
    The upper-level ridge across the Plains will start to deamplify on
    Friday. Simultaneously, a lee trough will develop across the
    northern Plains and into the central High Plains. Strengthening
    low-level flow will lead to a moistening/destabilizing airmass east
    of the lee trough. In addition, the low-level jet will strengthen to
    near 40 knots across the Plains. Increasing isentropic ascent
    associated with this strengthening low-level jet will be the primary
    forcing mechanism for storms across the region. 00Z guidance focuses
    this low-level jet east of the primary instability which creates
    considerable uncertainty for storm coverage and intensity. Given the environment for severe weather across the region, have highlighted
    the most favorable area with a 5% severe weather probability.

    ...North Georgia into the Carolinas...
    A very moist airmass will be present across the Carolinas on Friday
    with dewpoints in the 70s. Around 20 to 25 knots of mid-level flow
    may result in occasional storm organization, but weak lapse rates
    may limit storm intensity. Nonetheless, numerous storms in a very
    moist, moderate to strongly unstable environment will support some
    damaging wind potential. Therefore, a Marginal Risk has been added
    for this threat.

    ..Bentley.. 08/26/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 26 19:08:38 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 261908
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 261907

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0207 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

    Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM NORTH GA INTO SOUTHEAST
    VA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northern
    Georgia into the Carolinas and the northern/central Plains.

    ...Northern/Central Plains...

    An upper ridge, centered from the southern Rockies to the western
    Dakotas will persist on Friday. Some enhancement to
    west/northwesterly flow aloft is forecast, and a surface trough will
    develop across the northern and central High Plains. Southerly
    low-level flow to the east of the surface trough will transport 60s
    F dewpoints northward from the central into the northern Plains. As
    a low-level jet strengthens during the evening, thunderstorm
    development is possible. Capping may limit surface-based convection.
    However, forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles amid
    moderate instability and steep midlevel lapse rates. If storms
    develop, large hail will be possible.

    ...North GA into southeast VA...

    Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. on Friday.
    Surface high pressure will build over the Midwest while a surface
    trough extends from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the southern
    Appalachians. East of the trough, a very moist airmass will be in
    place. Daytime heating of this very moist/high PW airmass will
    support moderate destabilization, and thunderstorm clusters are
    expected to develop over higher terrain. Vertical shear will be
    weak, limiting organized convection. Nevertheless, wet microbursts
    could produce sporadic strong/locally damaging wind gusts.

    ..Leitman.. 08/26/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 27 07:30:02 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 270729
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 270728

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0228 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

    Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
    THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the
    northern Great Basin and across the northern Plains.

    ...Northern Great Basin Vicinity...
    A broad range of 00Z guidance (GFS/RRFS/NAM) shows moderate
    instability developing across northern Utah on Saturday amid strong
    surface heating. Forecast soundings show an uncapped airmass by
    mid-afternoon when scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to
    begin. 45 to 50 knots of mid-level flow will support storm organization/longevity and some damaging wind threat (some 75+ mph).
    The ECMWF is the least unstable, with more cloud-cover across the
    region, which may limit the severe weather threat somewhat.
    Nonetheless, even this ECMWF solution would likely support some
    severe wind threat. Therefore, a Marginal Risk seems warranted, and
    if all guidance trends toward the more unstable solution, an upgrade
    to Slight Risk may be needed in later outlooks.

    ...Northern Plains...
    Moderate to strong instability is forecast across the Northern
    Plains on Saturday within a moist region to the north of a surface
    low. Forcing will be relatively weak, but subtle height falls and
    perhaps a weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within the
    southwesterly flow, may be sufficient for isolated to widely
    scattered storms Saturday afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show
    long hodographs across the region which would support a supercell
    storm mode. A Marginal Risk has been added for this threat, but the
    lack of stronger forcing precludes higher probabilities at this
    time.

    ..Bentley.. 08/27/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)