Forum: War Ensemble BBS

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 14:01:02 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 170542
SWODY2
SPC AC 170540

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...PARTS OF NEBRASKA...NORTHERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI...AND IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts
are expected Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the central
Plains and toward the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valley.

...Central Plains to Mid/Upper MS Valley...

The forecast for Tuesday has become less certain with time, with
current CAMs guidance suggesting early convection across parts
NE/IA/MO early in the period. This could have implication on
boundary layer destabilization later in the afternoon/evening and
how convection develops/evolves during that time.

Nevertheless, an otherwise favorable environment for severe storms
could develop as an upper trough continues to dig over the Great
Lakes, leading to modest height falls across the northern/central
Plains to the Midwest. Northwesterly flow aloft will increase to
around 40-50 kt in the midlevels, providing support for supercell
wind profiles across the region. Meanwhile, a moist boundary layer
will be in place ahead of a southeastward-advancing front. Morning
convection could result in a convective enhance surface boundary
and/or outflow across portions of the NE/KS/MO/IA. Where stronger
heating can occur within the very moist warm sector, resulting in
stronger differential heating, convection is expected to develop by
late afternoon into the evening. This could be storms along one or
more boundaries across the broader region. Large hail and strong
gusts will be possible with initial storms. A low-level jet is
expected to strengthen during the nighttime hours, and some
potential for MCS development is apparent, but conditional. Should
this occur, potential for damaging wind gusts would increase.

More isolated storms are expected across the High Plains from
eastern WY/northeast CO into southwest SD/western NE/KS are
expected, and into parts of MN/WI, posing a risk for strong gusts
and/or hail.

...Southeast...

A surface low is forecast to move across NC and lift northward along
the East Coast. This will bring a surface front across the
Southeast, where a very moist and moderately unstable airmass will
be in place beneath deep-layer northwesterly flow. Vertical shear
will remain weak, but multi-cell clusters could produce sporadic wet
downbursts within the high PW environment. Overall, severe potential
is expected to remain limited, precluding severe probabilities at
this time.

..Leitman.. 08/17/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 17:28:44 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 171728
SWODY2
SPC AC 171727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND
NORTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts
are expected Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the central
Plains and toward the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valley.

...Central Plains to Mid/Upper MS Valley...
The presence, or lack, of morning convection will have a significant
impact on the evolution of storms on Tuesday. From the 12Z HREF
cycle, a majority of the CAM members have a cluster of storms across
eastern Nebraska at 12Z. Given the environment in the region, this
cluster would at least have some marginal hail/wind threat. Most
guidance has this cluster dissipating as the low-level jet weakens.
Given a more stable environment east of this activity this seems
like the most likely scenario. If this cluster can persist until
late morning when the downstream airmass destabilizes to the south,
it could turn right and persist across Missouri, but evidence for
this is quite low.

Whatever boundaries any morning storms leave behind will likely be
the focus for diurnal storm development. Overall forcing is quite
low which may lead to isolated to widely scattered storm
development. However, 45 to 55 knots of mid-level flow from the
KS/NE border northward will provide ample shear for storm
organization, including supercells. In fact, some 2-3 inch hail
seems likely with any longer-lived supercells which may develop
within this most favorable environment.

Additional thunderstorms are expected during the overnight period
from northern Kansas to central Missouri, within a region of
isentropic ascent. The location of the 850mb front and the best
forcing still has some uncertainty, but thunderstorm activity will
be most likely from northeast Kansas to northwest Missouri. As
storms congeal and a cold pool forms, a wind-producing MCS may
develop out of this cluster. This is most prominently shown by the
WRF-NSSL and the WRF-ARW. Therefore, a CIG1 wind intensity has been
added across this region for this conditional 75+ mph wind threat
associated with a MCS in the forecast environment.

..Bentley.. 08/17/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 18 05:48:24 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 180548
SWODY2
SPC AC 180546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and strong
to severe wind gusts from the central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi
Valley and Ozarks. The greatest risk area is from the Ozarks into
the Lower Ohio Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Southern MO...Northern AR...Western KY/TN...Southern IL...
Gradual height falls will occur throughout the period as a
low-amplitude shortwave trough moves out of the Plains and toward
Mid MS/OH Valleys. Early day thunderstorms may be ongoing from MO
into the Lower OH Valley, but perhaps not particularly strong.
Behind this initial activity, strong instability will redevelop from
MO into northern AR, and western KY/TN with southwest low-level
winds and 70s F dewpoints near a southward moving front over
southern MO. Predictability is a bit low for the boundary position,
but storms may form anywhere from I-70 southward into northern AR
during the late afternoon, moving east/southeast during the evening.
Corridors of damaging wind and hail will be possible, with any brief
tornado chances depending on earlier outflows which may enhance
low-level shear.

...Central and Northern Plains...
A shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into the Mid
MS Valley on Wednesday, with 40 kt northwest flow at 500 mb across
much of the central Plains. Although a front will push south across
OK and the TX Panhandle, low-level moisture with 50s to 60s F
dewpoints will remain beneath this upper trough, and strong heating
will lead to clusters of storms within a weak surface trough/wind
shift by late afternoon. Favored areas will be from SD into NE where temperatures aloft will be cold and counteract the lack of low-level
moisture, and from the Front Range southward into northeast NM.
Scattered hail over 1.00" or locally severe gusts will be possible
through early evening as storms travel southeastward out of the High
Plains and across SD, NE and KS.

..Jewell.. 08/18/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 18 17:32:26 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 181732
SWODY2
SPC AC 181730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI...PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
One or two organized clusters of thunderstorms with potential to
produce swaths of damaging surface gusts appear possible across
parts of the Ozark Plateau into Mid South, and perhaps central and
southeastern Arizona, Wednesday through Wednesday night.

...Discussion...
An initially notable cyclone to the southwest of Hudson Bay is
forecast to weaken, with its broadening mid-level circulation
redeveloping across and east of southern Hudson/James Bays through
this period. To the south of this feature, broad cyclonic mid-level
flow will overspread much of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley through Northeast, downstream of initially building mid-level
ridging across the Pacific Northwest through northern Rockies, to
the north of a prominent mid-level high slowly shifting
northeastward toward the Four Corners region.

Beneath a plume of elevated mixed-layer now advecting along the
southern fringe of the westerlies, across the central Great Plains,
toward the Mid South, a lower-level baroclinic zone, likely
reinforced by convective outflow, may be in the process of advancing
southward across the Mid South/Ozark Plateau and south central Great
Plains (Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity) at the outset of the
period. In the wake of one possible MCV initially migrating
east-southeastward into the Mid South, and ahead of a possible
trailing MCV, and trailing digging short wave impulse, it appears
that the southward progression of the front may slow or stall across
the Ozark Plateau/Mid South, while continuing more steadily, but
slowly, across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. There is
substantive spread evident in the model output concerning these
developments, however.

...Ozark Plateau/Mid South...
Potential convective evolution Wednesday through Wednesday night
remains uncertain. However, it appears that a notable belt of
convectively augmented mid-level flow, including 30-50+ kt around
700 mb, will gradually nose from the lower Missouri through lower
Ohio Valley during the day. Depending on how the near-surface
boundary becomes oriented as this occurs, aided by a corridor of
seasonably high moisture content along it, there appears potential
for destabilization and shear to become conducive to organized
severe thunderstorm development. This may include supercells and/or
one or two evolving clusters accompanied by developing swaths of
strong to severe wind gusts through the period.

...Southern Rockies into Great Plains...
In the wake of the primary front, it appears that the boundary-layer
will remain sufficiently moist to support modest instability in the
presence of relatively weak mid-level inhibition across the middle
into lower Missouri Valley. Aided by forcing for ascent associated
with one lead digging short wave impulse, and a trailing one digging into/across the international border, at least widely scattered
strong to severe storm development appears possible through the
period, in the presence of favorable strong deep-layer shear.

A drier, but more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary-layer by
late Wednesday afternoon, near and to the lee of the Front Range
through Sangre de Cristo Mountains, may also become conducive to
widely scattered to scattered strong storms with potential to
produce severe wind and hail, aided by a weak short wave impulse
migrating around the Four Corners ridge.

...Arizona...
With the evolution/progression of the mid-level ridge, potential
steering flow for convective development is forecast to take on a
prominent easterly component with weak to modest strength by late
Wednesday afternoon across much of the Mogollon Rim through lower
deserts. Coupled with a preceding Gulf moisture surge, forecast
soundings indicate profiles supportive of at least weak to moderate
CAPE, even as the boundary-layer becomes hot and deeply mixed with
40-50F+ surface temperature/dew point spreads by peak afternoon
heating.

Initially more modest late afternoon instability in the lower
deserts around Phoenix may gradually destabilize with boundary-layer
moistening after sunset, eventually supporting the propagation of
convection into/across the Greater Phoenix area by late evening.
Details of the potential convective evolution remain uncertain, but
at least some model output suggest the evolution of a substantive
convective cluster is possible, which could become accompanied by
more widespread strong to severe gusts.

..Kerr.. 08/18/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 19 05:46:56 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 190546
SWODY2
SPC AC 190544

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE MID SOUTH...AND THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are possible Thursday across parts of the
Mid Atlantic, from Nebraska into Wisconsin, and over parts of the
Mid South.

...From NE into northwest WI...
Mid to upper level northwest winds will increase across the region,
with 30-40 kt at 500 mb common. At the surface, low pressure will
develop into northern MN with a cold front extending southwestward
across eastern SD and into northern NE by 00Z.

Although high pressure will exist east of this area, pockets of 60s
dewpoints will still exist ahead of the front, and, temperatures
aloft will be cool. Daytime heating will thus support
destabilization along the front, with scattered storms from
northeast MN/northern WI into NE. Favorable deep-layer shear around
40 kt along with the cool air aloft will support cells capable of
hail. Isolated hail near 2.00" cannot be ruled out over NE, but this
will depend on actual moisture return and potential for stronger
than forecast instability.

...Mid Atlantic...
Weak low pressure is forecast to translate eastward along a front
which will move into southern PA/central NJ, while another surface
low develops into eastern VA/northeast NC with a increasing
convergence there. Across this small warm sector, upper 60s to 70s F
dewpoints will lead to a zone of moderate instability, and scattered
storms should develop from southeast PA/NJ into MD, DE, and eastern
VA. Additional activity may develop southwestward into northern NC.
20-30 kt mean winds above 700 mb will support clusters of cells
moving southeastward during the late afternoon, with strong to
locally severe wind gusts possible. Isolated marginal hail cannot be
ruled out as upper level temperatures will be cool.

...Mid South...
A surface trough will develop from the Red River eastward across AR
and into northern MS, with a weak wind shift providing a focus for
storm development. CAM guidance continues to show a cluster of
storms developing after 21Z over northern MS into southwest TN. The
environment will be very warm and moist, with temperatures near 100
F and precipitable water values near 2.00". Shear will be weak, and
storms are likely to produce strong outflow winds, possibly severe
downbursts. Isolated marginal hail cannot be ruled out as
temperatures aloft will be relatively cool.

..Jewell.. 08/19/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 19 17:14:02 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 191713
SWODY2
SPC AC 191712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are possible Thursday across parts of the
Mid Atlantic, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large hail and
isolated wind damage will be possible with severe storms from
Nebraska into northwest Wisconsin.

...Mid-Atlantic...

A midlevel shortwave impulse is forecast to spread eastward from the
Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic through Thursday evening. This will
result in enhanced southwesterly flow atop a very moist boundary
layer. Strong heating along/east of a surface trough oriented from
northern MD through central VA/NC will support a corridor of
moderate destabilization. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near
a warm front across southern/central NJ south/southwest along the
surface trough into central/eastern VA/NC during the afternoon.
Effective shear magnitudes around 40 kt will support organized
cells, perhaps becoming linear segments with time. Damaging wind
gusts will be possible, supported further by steep low-level lapse
rates and high PW values. The strongest cells could also produce
hail.

...TN Valley/Southeast...

A surface tough will extend southwestward from the NC Piedmont into
northern MS/central AR Thursday afternoon. A seasonally moist and
hot airmass will be in place, fostering moderate to strong
instability. Weak convergence along the surface boundary will
promote scattered thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be
weak, but thunderstorm clusters could produce damaging outflow gusts
with the steep lapse rates/high PW environment. Forecast soundings
also show so cooler temperature aloft, and isolated hail could
accompany strong storms across parts of northern MS and the TN
Valley.

Further south into central/southern AL, southwest GA and the FL
Panhandle vicinity, isolated cells are expected within a similar
environment, but even weaker deep-layer flow is forecast.
Nevertheless, sporadic wet microbursts will be possible, posing a
risk for locally damaging gusts.

...Central Plains to MN/WI...

Northwesterly flow aloft will increase Thursday afternoon into
evening. At the surface, weak low pressure will migrate east across
northern MN toward the U.P. of MI. As this occurs, a weak surface
front will develop southeast across the region. Ahead of this
boundary, modest boundary layer moisture will remain in place
(generally low to maybe mid-60s F dewpoints). Supercell wind
profiles are evident in forecast soundings, with elongated/straight
hodographs noted above 2-3 km. Isolated to widely scattered storms
will develop by late afternoon/early evening, posing a risk for
large hail and locally damaging winds. With southward extent into
NE, a narrow corridor may exist for significant hail (greater than 2
inch diameter) given steep midlevel lapse rates/cool temperatures
aloft and somewhat higher boundary layer moisture compared to
further north.

...AZ...

Easterly midlevel flow on the southern periphery of an upper
anticyclone over the Four Corners will remain in place on Thursday.
Modest boundary layer moisture will persist over lower elevations
amid the steep lapse rate environment. This will promote MLCAPE
around 1000-1250 J/kg. Thunderstorms will develop over higher
terrain during the late afternoon. Damaging wind potential will
increase as storms consolidate and propagate westward over the lower
elevations of central/southern AZ during the evening.

..Leitman.. 08/19/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 05:45:48 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 200545
SWODY2
SPC AC 200543

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging hail (some greater than 2 inch diameter) and
severe wind gusts may occur over parts of the central Plains late
Friday afternoon and evening. Scattered storms, some with severe
wind gusts, are possible Friday afternoon over parts of the
Carolinas and Georgia.

...NE into northern KS...
Moderate northwest flow aloft will develop over the northern to
central Plains on Friday, as a surface trough develops over the High
Plains. This will result in directional shear with elongated
hodographs featuring 50 kt effective deep-layer shear. Storms are
expected to develop near the low-level lapse rate plume during the
late afternoon over central to western NE, with cells moving
southeastward into the mid 60s F dewpoints and producing very large
hail. Isolated significant wind gusts may also occur if
storms/outflows merge, possibly extending into northern KS during
the evening. Overall storm coverage is uncertain, but at least
scattered cells appear likely, with high conditional risk of severe
hail/wind.

...Carolinas...GA...
A very moist and unstable air mass is forecast over the region on
Friday, near a surface trough and south of a cold front pushing into
NC. Numerous storms are forecast to develop after 20Z, within a weak shear/strong instability environment. MLCAPE is forecast to be over
3000 J/kg, supporting vigorous updrafts and locally severe
microbursts and outflows.

..Jewell.. 08/20/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 17:24:42 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 201724
SWODY2
SPC AC 201722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging hail (some greater than 2 inch diameter) and
severe wind gusts may occur over parts of the central Plains late
Friday afternoon and evening. Scattered storms, some with severe
wind gusts and hail, also are possible across parts of the Midwest
and Southeast.

...Central Plains...

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread portions of the
region on Friday. Meanwhile, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates
will shift east across the central Plains toward the Mid-MO Valley.
A corridor of rich boundary layer moisture will be in place within east/southeast low-level flow across portions of KS/NE ahead of a
west-to-east oriented surface boundary. Moderate to strong
instability is forecast by late afternoon into evening, supporting
widely scattered thunderstorm development near the surface boundary.
Vertically veering wind profiles with elongated/straight hodographs
and 45+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support initial
supercells. Large to very large hail (some greater than 2 inches
diameter) will be possible. With time, a forward propagating cluster
could develop and move southeast across parts of NE and KS. Some
potential for severe gusts (a few near 70-80 mph) will be possible
given large instability and steep low-level lapse rates.

It is uncertain how far south the severe risk will persist into the
overnight hours. Forecast guidance, including CAMs, vary
considerably, but some potential could spread into parts of northern
OK late Friday/early Saturday. For now, have extended the Marginal
risk southward across KS to account for conditional severe
potential.

...IA/WI/IL...

Northwesterly flow aloft will modestly increase on Friday as an
upper trough deepens over the Midwest. Cooling aloft will also
result in areas of steepening midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally
moist airmass ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This
will aid in a corridor of moderate to strong destabilization across
portions of IA into northern IL and southern/eastern WI. Vertical
wind profiles will support supercell thunderstorms capable of large
hail and strong wind gusts. The southward extent of the risk into
central IL is a bit uncertain, but some risk could persist into late
evening.

...Southeast/Carolinas...

A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place in the
vicinity of a surface trough Friday afternoon. Strong heating and
weak confluence will aid in thunderstorm development along the
surface trough and higher terrain. Sufficient storm coverage could
result in clustering/forward propagating as storms move eastward
through the afternoon/early evening. Otherwise, weak vertical shear
will limit overall organization, but sporadic severe/damaging gusts
could occur from wet microbursts within the unstable/high PW
airmass.

..Leitman.. 08/20/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 05:50:18 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 210550
SWODY2
SPC AC 210548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN
IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...ARKANSAS AND VICINITY...AND THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of wind gusts and isolated
large hail will be possible in the Ohio Valley and Arkansas
vicinity. Severe gusts are possible across the central High Plains
and northern Idaho into western Montana.

...Northern Idaho and western Montana...
A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Northwest on
Saturday with modest diffluence ahead of it during the day. Strong
heating should result in steep lapse rates and weak instability
across the region. Storms should develop over the mountains by
midday and advance northeast. As 6km flow strengthens to ~40 knots
by mid-afternoon, adequate shear should be in place for a few
organized storms. The steep lapse rates and inverted-v thermodynamic
profile will support severe wind gusts as the primary threat.

...Central High Plains...
Diurnal, terrain driven thunderstorms will develop by early
afternoon and eventually move into the adjacent Plains by late afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to potentially
strong instability across the Plains with moderately steep lapse
rates and dewpoints perhaps into the low 60s. The primary limiting
factor will be shear with less than 30 knots of flow below 300mb.
However, enough flow should be present, when combined with the
moderate to strong instability, to support some storms capable of
severe wind gusts.

...Arkansas and Vicinity...
The most favorable environment across the CONUS on Saturday appears
to be from eastern Kansas to Arkansas beneath a belt of stronger
mid-level flow where moderate to strong instability may also be in
place. This environment would even support supercells. However,
storm coverage remains uncertain. Added a small 5% in the Arkansas
vicinity where at least isolated storms appear most likely. However,
with relatively nebulous forcing, perhaps related to remaining
convection from Friday, confidence is low where the strongest storms
may occur.

...Ohio Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough will amplify across the Great Lakes on
Saturday and become negatively tilted toward the end of the period.
As this occurs, a surface low will deepen somewhat across southern
Ontario with a cold front sweeping across Ohio and northern Kentucky
through the day. Despite relatively weak heating across the region
due to extensive cloud cover, moderate instability is forecast to
develop amid upper 60s dewpoints and cooling temperatures aloft.
This, combined with 25 to 30 knots of shear, should be sufficient
for multicells and occasional supercells capable of primarily
damaging wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 08/21/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 17:28:32 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 211728
SWODY2
SPC AC 211726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES...THE FRONT RANGE INTO CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS...THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS...MIDDLE/UPPER OHIO VALLEY
AND ADJACENT LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong storms may impact a corridor from near the northern
Rockies into the southeastern Great Plains, as well as the middle
and upper Ohio Valley vicinity, Saturday. These may pose at least
some potential to produce severe wind and hail.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that the increasingly deformed remnants of a
mid-level low will be forced inland across the northern U.S. Pacific
coast during this period, with a still vigorous remnant perturbation approaching the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late Saturday
night. Downstream, the center of a prominent mid-level ridge is
forecast to slowly shift across and east of the southern Rockies,
with amplified ridging within the westerlies to the north
overspreading much the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great
Plains.

To the east of this ridging, it appears that large-scale troughing
will undergo further amplification across areas east of the
Mississippi Valley through the Atlantic Seaboard. Within this
regime, guidance indicates that one vigorous short wave impulse will
dig southeast of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes through the
upper Ohio Valley by late Saturday night, trailed by a similar
strength impulse across northwestern Ontario toward the northern
Great Lakes vicinity. These are likely to be preceded by at least a
couple of increasingly sheared perturbations, including one
generally forecast to accelerate northeastward offshore of the
southern Mid Atlantic coast early in the period.

Near the southwestern flank of the larger-scale troughing, a
convectively generated or augmented perturbation might maintain
strength within modest north-northwesterly flow, around the eastern
periphery of the stronger mid-level ridging, across the southeastern
Great Plains toward northwestern Gulf coast.

In lower-levels, it appears that the leading edge of a series of
surges of cooler air, probably reinforced by convective outflow
across at least portions of the Great Plains, may reach central
Texas and northern portions of the remainder of the Gulf Coast into
southern Mid Atlantic Seaboard by 12Z Sunday. This is expected in
the wake of a modestly deepening surface low to the north of the
lower Great Lakes, and a weaker secondary low developing
near/offshore of the Mid Atlantic.

...Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region...
In advance of the vigorous lead digging short wave trough, and an
associated influx of surface cooling, a corridor of low-level
moistening may contribute to potential for moderate boundary-layer destabilization by late afternoon. It appears that this will have
to occur in the wake of early period warm advection driven
convective cloud cover and precipitation likely to overspread the
region. However, breaks in the cloud cover and the onset of cooling
aloft may become sufficient to support scattered vigorous
thunderstorm development. Despite generally modest to weak vertical
shear, modest steepening of lower into mid-level lapse rates of
temperature and potential wet-bulb temperature may be sufficient to
contribute to profiles conducive to localized downbursts, in
addition to marginally severe hail.

...Front Range into southeastern Great Plains...
Latest convection-allowing guidance and other model output remains
rather varied concerning the potential evolution of storms and the
associated risk for severe weather through this period. However,
there do appear at least a couple of corridors with a somewhat
higher likelihood for thunderstorm initiation and organization
Saturday through Saturday night.

One may develop on the eastern periphery of the mid-level high
across the southeastern Great Plains, where stronger
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may focus near the nose of an increasingly suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air. Wind fields/vertical shear may be modest to weak, but a corridor of
higher low-level moisture content may support storm inflow with
large CAPE ahead of a remnant convective perturbation, supporting
potential for the evolution of an intensifying and organizing south/southwestward propagating storm cluster with risk for severe
hail and wind.

Another may focus in moistening upslope flow along/east of the
Laramie mountains through Colorado Front Range by late Saturday
afternoon. Perhaps aided by a weak short wave impulse slowly
pivoting across this region, around the periphery of the mid-level
high, convection may consolidate into an intensifying and organizing
cluster propagating into the adjacent Great Plains by Saturday
evening, aided by updraft inflow of air characterized by moderately
large CAPE.

...Eastern Idaho into western Montana...
Multiple waves of scattered thunderstorm development appear possible
across the region Saturday into Saturday night, ahead of the inland
advancing short wave trough. In the wake of an initial round of overnight/early period convection, models suggest that boundary
layer moistening will be sufficient to support increasing, though
still rather modest to weak, CAPE with heating and deep mixing by
late Saturday afternoon. Still, thermodynamic profiles may become
conducive to a few localized downbursts into Saturday evening.

..Kerr.. 08/21/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 22 05:59:26 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 220559
SWODY2
SPC AC 220557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND
MONTANA....

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm activity posing at least some risk for severe
hail and wind appears possible across parts of the northern Rockies
and Great Plains, and across parts of the eastern Great Lakes to the
Northeast, Sunday through Sunday night.

...Montana...
A deamplifying mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Pacific
Northwest into eastern British Columbia on Sunday. As this occurs, a
lee cyclone across Montana will advect moisture northwestward into
central Montana with some 60F dewpoints expected. Moderate mid-level
flow along the southern periphery of this mid-level trough will
overspread a weak to moderately unstable airmass across Montana. The
majority of the forcing will be farther north across Canada,
however, weak height falls and terrain driven circulations should be
sufficient enough for storm development by mid-afternoon across
central Montana. 30 to 35 knots of shear should be sufficient for
storm organization including some supercell potential. In addition,
strong heating will result in steep lapse rates and an environment
supporting damaging winds.

...Dakotas...
Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast across
central South Dakota and vicinity on Sunday afternoon, southwest of
a frontal zone. Persistent southwesterly 1km flow is expected for
much of the day. Isentropic ascent within this zone will support the
potential for thunderstorms for much of the day. Thunderstorm coverage/intensity may increase as a mid-level shortwave trough
approaches the region during the afternoon. In addition, the
low-level jet is expected to strengthen during the evening which
will result in more widespread storm development. The environment,
featuring moderate to strong instability and 35-45 kts of effective
shear, within a zone of moderate forcing, may result in some strong
storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.

...Eastern Great Lakes into the Northeast...
A strong mid-level trough across the Great Lakes will become a
closed upper low across southern Ontario on Sunday. An individual
mid-level trough revolving around the primary trough will become
negatively tilted as it pivots through the Northeast. A secondary
mid-level shortwave trough will dig into the western portion of this
trough and emerge around the base of the trough late Sunday evening.
These features amid the deepening upper low will result in
persistent ascent across the region where weak instability will also
be present. Shear may be relatively weak (20 to 25 knots), which may
limit overall storm organization. However, the cool temperatures
aloft should be sufficient for isolated large hail and damaging wind
gusts.

...Arkansas and Vicinity...
Most guidance shows a moderate low-level jet and isentropic ascent
across eastern Oklahoma and into Arkansas late Sunday night and
early Monday. Forecast soundings, other than the HiRes NAM, show
relatively meager instability. Therefore, while thunderstorms are
likely along this zone given the strong forcing, severe storms may
struggle amid relatively weak instability. Therefore, no
probabilities have been added at this time.

..Bentley.. 08/22/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 22 17:33:06 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 221732
SWODY2
SPC AC 221730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm activity posing at least some risk for severe
hail and wind appears possible across parts of the northern Rockies
and Great Plains, and across parts of the eastern Great Lakes to the
Northeast, Sunday through Sunday night.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will prevail across the western CONUS as an upper
trough slowly traverses the Northeast tomorrow (Sunday). A mid-level
impulse will crest the upper ridge tomorrow afternoon across the
northern Rockies while a small impulse embedded in the
aforementioned upper trough overspreads the northern Appalachians.
From the northern Rockies to northern High Plains, as well as parts
of the Northeast, stronger flow above the boundary layer will
promote adequate vertical wind shear, in tandem with buoyancy, to
promote strong to severe thunderstorms. Elsewhere from the central
Rockies to the Gulf/Carolina coastlines, strong surface heating amid
pockets of low-level moisture will support scattered thunderstorm
development, with an isolated severe storm possible.

...Northern Rockies...
By mid to late afternoon, a well-mixed boundary layer should develop
beneath a plume of cooler temperatures aloft (e.g. 8+ C/km mid-level
lapse rates) with the passage of the aforementioned mid-level
impulse. A belt of stronger mid- to -upper level westerly flow will
also accompany this impulse, resulting in elongated hodographs and
30-40 kts of effective bulk (speed) shear coinciding with the steep
low- and mid-level lapse rates. Multicells and transient supercells
should develop, accompanied by a risk of severe gusts and perhaps an
instance or two of hail. A gust over 75 mph is possible.

...Northern High Plains into South Dakota...
Convective evolution and morphology remains unclear in this region.
Steep lapse rates will emanate from the northern Rockies and
overspread a moistening warm sector (e.g. mid 60s F dewpoints),
yielding 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Modestly curved and elongated hodographs
suggest multicells and supercells as the main storm mode, at least
initially. Severe gusts/hail would accompany these storms if they
can become sustained. There is also some indication by the latest
CAMS that storms may merge into a cold-pool-driven MCS, though
guidance consensus is weak on this scenario. Nonetheless, any MCS
development that does occur would support severe gusts, including a
75+ mph gust.

...Portions of the eastern Great Basin to the central Rockies...
A cluster of multicell storms should develop around the eastern
Great Basin into the central Rockies by afternoon peak heating.
Stronger flow aloft will glance the region to the north, atop a
strongly mixed boundary layer. Forecast soundings show classic
inverted-V profiles extending to 500 mb, with surface-500 mb lapse
rates reaching at least 9 C/km. As such, severe gusts are possible
with the stronger multicells that form.

...Portions of the Northern Appalachians into New England...
By afternoon, surface temperatures should warm well into the 70s F
as earlier showers and thunderstorms make way for at least partly
clearing skies. While not overly steep, mid-level lapse rates
exceeding 6.5 C/km will result in marginal buoyancy, amid stronger
flow aloft (yielding elongated hodographs). A couple instances of
damaging gusts/hail will be possible with the stronger multicells
that manage to sustain themselves.

...Gulf to Carolina Coastlines...
A heated and moist boundary layer should develop by afternoon given
the presence of mid 70s F surface dewpoints and temperatures rising
well into the 80s F. Such rich low-level moisture will support
2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE from LA to extreme eastern NC despite
mid-level lapse rates only reaching 6-6.5 C/km. Across the Gulf
Coast, pulse-cellular storms are expected given weak flow aloft,
with damaging gusts originated from wet downbursts the main threat.
Along the Carolina Coastline, southwesterly mid-level flow will be a
bit stronger given the upper trough glancing by to the north.
Multicells capable of isolated severe gusts are possible. Locally
higher severe probabilities may be needed in future Day 1 outlooks
if greater storm coverage becomes apparent.

...Portions of southern Arizona...
Locally stronger southeasterly mid-level flow will pivot around the
upper ridge and overspread a deep and dry boundary layer by late afternoon/early evening. Meanwhile, surface temperatures around 100
F, amid 60 F surface dewpoints and overspread by modestly cooler
temperatures aloft, will yield 9+ C/km tropospheric lapse rates and
over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given the modest flow aloft and
aforementioned buoyancy, a few organized multicells may occur,
accompanied by an isolated severe gust threat.

..Squitieri.. 08/22/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 23 05:53:36 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 230553
SWODY2
SPC AC 230551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...THE SOUTHEAST...AND NORTHERN MAINE...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with at least isolated severe gusts/hail are possible
across the northern Great Basin to the High Plains and northern
Plains Monday afternoon and evening. A couple of damaging gusts may
also occur with storms in Maine and along parts of the Gulf Coast to
the eastern Carolinas.

...Northern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the Canadian prairies on
Monday with some weak height falls overspreading North Dakota and
northern South Dakota. A weak surface low will accompany this trough
with a cold front extending into the Dakotas. Moderate to
potentially strong instability is forecast ahead of this cold front.
Subtle forcing from the height falls and weak convergence along the
front may support isolated storms during the afternoon/evening.
Long/straight hodographs would support supercells capable of large
hail and severe wind gusts. Steep lapse rates will support some
potential for 75+ mph wind gusts. In addition, if any longer lived
supercells can develop, 2+ inch hail is also possible. Stronger
forcing, hinted at by the more amplified mid-level trough on the 00Z
NAM, would support greater storm coverage and potentially greater
hail/wind probabilities in later outlooks.

...Northern Great Basin into the central High Plains...
Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop over the higher
terrain from the northern Great Basin to the central Rockies. As
storms move into the adjacent Plains, where strong heating and steep
lapse rates are forecast, severe wind gusts are possible. Storm mode
will be single cell to multicell, with only 15 to 25 knots of shear
across the region. However, the thermodynamic profile will support
an isolated severe wind threat.

...Southeast...
Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s amid mid 70s F dewpoints will
yield MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg from Louisiana to the North Carolina
coast. Despite weak tropospheric flow, enough moisture-fueled
buoyancy will support the potential for wet downbursts capable of
damaging gusts during the afternoon.

...Maine...
Deep-layer ascent ahead of an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough
will support scattered thunderstorm development during the late
morning into the afternoon hours across central and northern Maine.
A belt of 60 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will pivot around the
upper trough and overspread Maine during the afternoon, when
buoyancy will be maximized. MLCAPE may exceed 750 J/kg with over 50
kts of effective bulk/speed shear. Therefore, any storms that
develop may become multicellular or transient supercellular in
nature, posting an isolated damaging gust/hail threat through the
afternoon.

..Bentley.. 08/23/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 23 17:30:42 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 231730
SWODY2
SPC AC 231728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms producing scattered severe gusts appear likely across
the central High Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow
(Monday). Isolated severe thunderstorms, posing mainly a
damaging/severe gust or sparse hail threat, may also occur across
parts of the Northern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, the
Gulf to Carolina Coastline, and Maine.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will persist across the western and central U.S. as an
upper trough is poised to traverse the Northeast and impinge on the
Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A pronounced mid-level shortwave trough
will crest the ridge and eject into the northern Plains by tomorrow
afternoon, encouraging surface lee troughing along the central High
Plains to the U.S./Canada border. Adequate low-level moisture
advection northward across the Plains, beneath seasonably cooler
temperatures aloft, in conjunction with stronger mid-level flow (and
thus vertical wind shear), will encourage strong to severe
thunderstorm potential over the northern Plains. Meanwhile, some
severe threat may exist with storms across the northern Great Basin,
Maine, and parts of the Gulf coastline.

...Northern Plains to the central High Plains...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected develop
ahead of a surface lee trough from the Canadian border to the
southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon. Mid to upper flow will be
strongest across the northern High Plains into the northern Plains,
where 30-40 kts of westerly 500 mb flow will support similar values
of effective bulk shear. The latest high-resolution guidance
consensus depicts a higher density cluster of multicells and perhaps
supercells developing somewhere around the Black Hills of SD and
propagating south-southeastward into NE. Given merging cold pools,
scattered severe gusts are possible, along with a couple instances
of severe hail. Closer to the Canadian border, convective coverage
is less certain, though 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and modestly
curved/elongated forecast hodographs suggest supercell potential
exists in this area. An upgrade to a Slight Risk may be needed
pending guidance trends involving greater storm coverage.

Tropospheric flow across the southern to central High Plains will be
weaker compared to points farther north. However, the presence of a
dry boundary layer extending upward to at least 700 mb, amid 1000+
J/kg MLCAPE, should support some risk for dry downbursts with the
stronger storm cores, perhaps accompanied by an isolated severe gust
threat.

...Portions of the northern Great Basin to the central Rockies...
By afternoon peak heating, scattered high-based thunderstorms should
develop amid classic inverted-V profiles. Since these storms will
develop along the periphery of stronger flow aloft (driven by a
departing mid-level shortwave trough), some organization is
possible. Multiple dry microbursts may occur, some of which may pose
a severe gust threat. An upgrade to a Slight Risk may be needed if
guidance consensus trends upward in convective coverage.

...Maine...
By late morning into early afternoon, partially clearing skies will
encourage surface temperatures to rise into the 70s F, resulting in
marginal instability (e.g. a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE) given
relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Nonetheless, a southerly mid-
to upper-level jet streak will overspread northern New England
during the afternoon, resulting in highly elongated hodographs and
30-40 kts of effective bulk (speed) shear. As such, any storms that
can develop and become sustained should become organized multicells
capable of supporting a few damaging gusts.

...Portions of the Gulf to Carolina coastlines...
By late morning into the afternoon, the heating of a very moist
boundary layer (e.g. 70s F surface dewpoints) will yield 2000-4000
J/kg MLCAPE, despite poor mid-level lapse rates. Once convective
temperatures are reached, several pulse storms and multicells will
develop, capable of producing wet downbursts and at least isolated
damaging gusts. Vertical wind shear will be locally stronger along
the NC coastline, where a supercell cannot be ruled out.

A consensus among CAMS depicts a relatively more organized cluster
of multicells emanating from a warm-air-advection regime across the
Ozark Valley, which will mature over southern MS into LA. Here,
there may be a locally denser cluster of damaging gusts, hence the
introduction of Category 2/Slight Risk severe wind probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 08/23/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 24 06:02:34 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 240602
SWODY2
SPC AC 240600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the
central Plains on Tuesday. More isolated severe storms may also
occur across parts of the Southeast and the Upper Mississippi
Valley.

...Upper Midwest...
A mid-level shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the
Upper Midwest on Tuesday with an associated surface low and cold
front moving across Minnesota and eventually into Wisconsin. Low 60s
dewpoints ahead of this cold front will result in weak to moderate
instability by mid-afternoon. Storm organization may be somewhat
lacking during the afternoon, but as the mid-level jet streak
overspreads the warm sector during the evening, a more favorable
environment is expected across northwest Wisconsin and vicinity.
Within this zone, a few supercells may occur during the evening with
a greater severe weather threat. However, the limited temporal and
spatial scale, and some concerns about storm coverage during this
timeframe, preclude Slight Risk issuance at this time.

...Central Plains...
Moderate to strong instability is forecast within a northwesterly
flow pattern across the central Plains. Weak height falls and strong
heating should result in scattered storm coverage across most of the
High Plains by the mid to late afternoon. 00Z guidance has trended
toward a stronger convective signal and greater instability across
southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Have shifted the Day 3 Slight
Risk area accordingly. While storms remain likely across much of
this region, the more organized severe threat will likely be near
the greatest instability.

...Southeast...
Moderate to strong heating is expected amid a very moist airmass
(mid 70s dewpoints) from the Gulf Coast to the GA/SC coast. Within
this zone, strong to isolated severe storms capable of water-loaded
downdrafts and some damaging wind potential are expected.

..Bentley.. 08/24/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 24 17:11:34 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 241711
SWODY2
SPC AC 241709

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely over the central Plains tomorrow
(Tuesday), with more isolated severe storms possible over the Upper
Mississippi Valley and Gulf coastline. Over all areas, severe gusts
are the main threat, though a couple instances of hail or a tornado
are also possible over the Upper Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will dominate most of the CONUS as an upper trough
over the Northeast ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Tuesday).
Multiple embedded impulses are expected to pivot around the upper
ridge over the central U.S., encouraging surface troughing over the
Plains states. Low-level moisture advection beneath seasonably cool temperatures aloft, along with modest forcing for ascent with the
surface trough, will encourage strong to severe thunderstorm
development across portions of the High Plains to the Upper MS
Valley.

...Portions of the central Plains...
Upslope flow of low-level moisture toward the higher
terrain/immediate lee of the Rockies will encourage thunderstorm
development tomorrow afternoon across the central High Plains. A
deep and relatively dry boundary layer will develop through the day,
with high-based pulse cellular and multicellular storms expected
(given relatively poor tropospheric vertical shear). Lapse rates
from the surface to 500 mb will reach the 8-9 C/km range, with
robust updrafts likely. These storms will quickly become outflow
dominant, leading to the cold-pool merger and the subsequent
organization of one or more loosely organized MCSs. Given steep
boundary layer lapse rates, efficient evaporative cooling will
promote the potential of severe gusts with the more organized storm
clusters, from far southern NE to the TX Panhandle.

...Parts of the Upper MS Valley...
By late afternoon, thunderstorms are poised to develop immediately
ahead of a surface trough as a 500 mb impulse and associated wind
maximum overspreads the Upper MS Valley. Surface dewpoints should
reach the low to mid 60s F, but will be overspread by modest
mid-level lapse rates (i.e. 6-7 C/km), yielding 2000-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Forecast hodographs are elongated, with some low-level
curvature noted. Supercells are expected to be the main storm mode,
accompanied by a sparse risk of all severe convective hazards.

...Eastern parts of the Gulf Coast...
Pulse cellular storms will develop along the Gulf Coast again
tomorrow, where mid 70s F surface dewpoints will yield enough
buoyancy to support strong thunderstorms. MLCAPE will likely exceed
2000 J/kg over several locales, with PWATS well over 2 inches
expected. As such, water-loaded downdrafts will promote wet
microbursts capable of producing wind damage.

..Squitieri.. 08/24/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 25 05:57:50 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 250557
SWODY2
SPC AC 250556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected across parts
of the central and southern High Plains, Great Lakes into the Ohio
Valley, and parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging/severe
gusts are the main threat across these regions.

...Central High Plains...
Upslope flow across the central High Plains will lead to moderate to
strong instability across much of eastern Colorado by Wednesday
afternoon. Strong heating and orographic ascent will result in
scattered storm development by late afternoon. Moderate
northwesterly flow aloft should result in 30 to 35 knots of
effective shear, sufficient for some supercell development. Large
hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with this storm
activity. The Slight Risk area is focused where the best combination
of shear and instability is expected. Farther north across Wyoming
flow should be stronger, but most guidance shows weaker instability.
Moderate to strong instability should extend into eastern New
Mexico. However, mid-level flow will be weaker and therefore, storm organization is less certain.

...Great Lakes...
A surface low will traverse northern Ontario on Wednesday with a
cold front extending southward into the western Great Lakes. Mid-60s
dewpoints are forecast to advect northward ahead of this cold front
which will lead to moderate to potentially strong instability.
Moderate mid-level northwesterly flow normal to the front should
provide sufficient shear and storm motion for a supercellular storm
mode. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat,
however, some tornado threat may also exist. Low-level hodographs
are small, but do show modest directional shear. This low-level
shear combined with a supercell storm mode may result in a tornado
or two.

...Lower MS Valley...
Several MCVs from Day 1/Tuesday convection may exist at 12Z
Wednesday across portions of the central Plains. As these features
move southeast toward the moist and unstable airmass across the
Ozarks and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, scattered thunderstorm development is likely. Relatively weak deep-layer flow may keep
storm mode relatively unorganized. However, the moist airmass and
moderate to strong instability, combined with one or more MCVs as a
forcing mechanism should combine for some damaging wind threat from water-loaded downdrafts Wednesday afternoon/evening.

..Bentley.. 08/25/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 25 17:07:56 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 251659
SWODY2
SPC AC 251658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE MIDWEST...AND THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected across parts
of the central and southern High Plains, Great Lakes into the Ohio
Valley, and parts of the Ozarks to Lower Mississippi Valley.
Damaging/severe gusts are the main threat across these regions,
though large hail is also possible, particularly across the High
Plains.

...Mid-MS Valley to Lower MI/northwest OH...

An upper trough will modestly deepen as it pivots across the region
on Wednesday. Modest northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the
area as a surface low and trailing cold front move east/southeast
through early Thursday. A plume of mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are
forecast ahead of the surface front across MO/IL/IN and into lower
MI/northwest OH. This will support moderate destabilization through
evening. Sufficient vertical shear for organized cells is expected,
with forecast soundings indicating 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes
and elongated/straight hodographs. Widely scattered convection will
pose a risk for damaging gusts and hail. Low-level hodographs are
somewhat small in forecast soundings, a tornado or two will be
possible (mainly across IN into southern Lower MI) where 0-1 km SRH
will be maximized near the surface front where low-level winds are
forecast to be more southerly.

...Ozarks/Lower MS Valley...

An MCV from prior day convection is forecast to be located near
northeast OK Wednesday morning. Downstream from this feature, a very
moist (70s dewpoints) and strongly unstable airmass will be in
place. Deep-layer west/westerly flow will remain modest, but some
local enhancement to shear aided by the MCV is possible. Scattered
convection will develop by early/mid afternoon. Given large
instability, high PW and potential for forward propagation via storm mergers/outflow interactions and sufficient storm coverage, wind
damage will be possible, and an upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5)
risk has been included with the Day 2 update.

...Central/Southern High Plains...

Modest deep-layer northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the
region on Wednesday. Low-level upslope flow within modest low-level
moisture and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE will support scattered convection
developing near higher terrain during the afternoon. Effective shear
magnitudes around 20-30 kt will be sufficient for at least transient
organized updrafts. Cool temperatures aloft and elongated hodographs
above 3 km will support large hail, with some potential for 2+ inch
stones within sustained updrafts across eastern WY/CO where shear
will be strongest. Otherwise, steep lapse rates will support strong
outflow winds.

..Leitman.. 08/25/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 26 05:59:14 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 260558
SWODY2
SPC AC 260557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts
of the Northeast on Thursday. Damaging wind, hail and a tornado or
two may accompany these storms.

...Mid Atlantic to the Northeast...
An embedded mid-level trough will rotate around a broader trough
across the Great Lakes. This embedded shortwave trough will advance
from near Lake Erie to the VT/NH region during the day Thursday. A
surface cold front will move from northern Ontario into Quebec with
a trailing cold front extending southward into the Great Lakes.
Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast ahead of this
front as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Mid-level flow
is not exceptionally strong, however, some stronger flow is evident
above 7km on forecast soundings. This wind profile will support a
predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, a few supercells
may also be possible. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the
primary threat, but a tornado or two may also occur farther north
across eastern New York and vicinity where forecast soundings
exhibit some modest low-level veering.

...Central High Plains...
An amplified mid-level ridge will shift east toward the Plains on
Thursday. Low-level southerly flow will advect low 60s dewpoints
northward into western Nebraska and far southwest South Dakota. This
should result in moderate instability across the region. Forecast
soundings show a favorable environment for supercells with 40+ knots
of effective shear and 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, rising
heights associated with the eastward shifting ridge may keep
convection mostly suppressed. Nonetheless, isolated storms are
possible within this favorable environment which would support a
conditional 2+ inch hail and 75+ mph wind gust threat.

..Bentley.. 08/26/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 26 17:15:36 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 261715
SWODY2
SPC AC 261713

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts
of the Northeast on Thursday. Damaging wind, hail and a tornado or
two may accompany these storms. Strong wind gusts and hail also may
occur over parts of the central Plains, and the Northern Rockies
vicinity.

...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...

Upper troughing will persist over the eastern U.S., with the trough
axis remaining roughly oriented from the Lower Great Lakes toward
the central/southern Appalachians. This will result in modest
southwesterly deep-layer flow across region, with somewhat strong
vertical wind profiles expected across the Northeast (and decreasing
with southward extent across central/southern Appalachians). A
surface trough/weak front will extend from the Upper OH Valley
southward toward northern GA Thursday morning, with this feature
drifting eastward through early Friday. Southerly low-level flow
east of the surface trough/boundary, will maintain a seasonally
moist boundary layer (60s F dewpoints). This will support moderate destabilization across the region, with pockets of strong
instability possible near/west of the I-95 corridor from northern VA
into southern/central NY.

Vertically veering wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings,
with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes suggesting organized
storms structures and possible transient supercells. Damaging winds
and occasional hail will be the main hazards with storms through
Thursday evening. Low-level hodographs are somewhat small, but
favorably curved, with 0-1 km SRH approaching 100 m2/s2 where backed
low-level winds persist. Given the moist boundary layer and
sufficient steep low-level lapse rates, a tornado or two also will
be possible.

Vertical shear decreases with southward extent across the
Appalachians. However, high PW and sufficient instability will exist
that thunderstorm clusters could produce wet microbursts and
sporadic wind damage of marginal hail as far south as northeast
TN/northwest NC.

...Central Plains...

Northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the region on Thursday as
the western upper ridging begins to shift east over the High Plains.
This will likely suppress convective coverage somewhat. However,
modest vorticity maxima rotating through northwesterly flow aloft
and stronger heating across the modestly moist airmass, along with
possible outflow from prior convection will support isolated
thunderstorm development from the Black Hills southeast into
Nebraska. Elongated hodographs and effective shear around 35+ kt
amid steep midlevel lapse rates suggest large hail will be possible,
with some potential for hail greater than 2 inch diameter. Overall
storm coverage is expected to remain low, precluding higher severe probabilities.

Additional thunderstorms are possible with upslope flow along the CO
foothills vicinity. Weaker vertical shear is expected compared to
further north, but the environment will still support marginal hail
with stronger updrafts.

...Northern Rockies...

Southwesterly flow aloft will increase as an upper shortwave trough
moves eastward from the Pacific Northwest into MT and Alberta. Steep
midlevel lapse rates will support modest destabilization by early
afternoon and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop over higher terrain. Strong heating will result in deep
boundary layer mixing and steep low-level lapse rates. Given
stronger flow aloft, isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be
possible as convection develops east/northeast through early
evening.

..Leitman.. 08/26/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 27 06:01:58 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 270601
SWODY2
SPC AC 270559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH
GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northern
Georgia into the Carolinas and Virginia and the northern/central
Plains.

...North Georgia to the Carolinas...
Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop
south of a stalled cold front from the southern Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic where upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present.
Lapse rates will be quite weak (~6 C/km), but most guidance shows
temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s which should provide
pockets of moderate to strong instability. Effective shear is
forecast to be weak (15 to 20 knots), but only slight modifications
in the effective layer calculation result in significantly greater
effective shear (30 to 35 knots) given moderate to strong flow above
7km. Therefore, any storms that can take advantage of this stronger
flow aloft may be longer-lived and capable of some damaging wind
gusts.

...Central/Northern Nebraska into central and eastern South Dakota
and Vicinity...
A mid-level ridge will slowly deamplify through the day on Friday
across the northern Plains. As this occurs, lee troughing will
strengthen through the day with a lee cyclone forecast to develop
across western South Dakota by early Saturday morning. Strengthening southeasterly flow ahead of the lee trough will advect low to
potentially mid 60s dewpoints into South Dakota. This will result in
moderate to potentially strong instability in the region. However,
most forecast soundings show the environment remaining capped for
much of the day which casts some doubt on diurnal storm coverage.
Some 00Z CAM guidance shows storms prior to 00Z across western
portions of the Marginal Risk area, but without strong forcing, it
is unclear if these storms will develop. Given the capped airmass,
the primary storm focus will likely be across northeast Nebraska and
eastern South Dakota, at the nose of the low-level jet where
warm-air advection will strengthen in the evening. Forecast
soundings show moderate to strong instability and strong shear
within this zone after 00Z. Large hail may be the primary threat in
the evening with the wind threat more dependent on potential upscale
growth.

..Bentley.. 08/27/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

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