ACUS11 KWNS 290010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290010=20
IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-290215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0886
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0710 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Areas affected...central and eastern Oregon into southwest Idaho

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 248...

Valid 290010Z - 290215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 248
continues.

SUMMARY...Through 02 UTC, the greatest threat for severe wind gusts
up to 60 to 70 mph and large hail up to golf-ball size will exist
from central into northeast Oregon. More isolated severe weather
remains possible elsewhere in the watch area.

DISCUSSION...As of 00 UTC, mosaic radar data showed a broken band of
severe storms, including supercell and bowing structures, across
portions of Deschutes, Crook, Wheeler, and Grant Counties in central
OR, moving west or northwest at 40-45 mph. The downstream
environment east of the Cascades remains moderately unstable with
steep lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s supporting
MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. And given the presence of modestly strong
deep-layer shear, the setup should sustain the ongoing storms, with
an attendant threat for damaging wind gusts up to 60-70 mph and hail
up to golf-ball size.

Farther to the northeast, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in the
vicinity of the Blue Mountains south of Pendleton, amidst a slightly
more unstable environment. Numerous splitting supercells have been
observed over the past couple of hours, and that trend may continue
before storms congeal into clusters. Large hail up to golf-ball size
will be the predominant hazard initially, with a transition to more
of a damaging wind threat should storm grow into a complex with an
organized cold pool.

The severe-weather threat is a little more uncertain across
south-central into southeast OR into far southwest ID, where
instability has diminished.

..Mead.. 05/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ll8oITWYu5TGAM-NwhpAH9SBGZhEjtVadurMSkKuw4D6Vo3OrOZ6XFzWbiO7fvpzW1NKVpyB= Bxa1hy_mWiXD3aqnmk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...MFR...PQR...

LAT...LON 42782129 43592136 43622197 45712169 45692027 46011847
46021692 45581657 45311661 45071617 43451611 43011595
42691492 42001499 41992100 42782129=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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