ACUS11 KWNS 282215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282215=20
IDZ000-NVZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-290015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0884
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0515 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Areas affected...southwest Idaho into eastern and central Oregon

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 248...

Valid 282215Z - 290015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 248
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe-weather threat continues across the watch area.
A potentially more focused area of severe storms will impact the
Harney Basin in the vicinity of Burns, OR and points west through
northwest for the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...As of 22:00 UTC, radar and IR satellite data indicated
a cluster of intense storms, including embedded supercell
structures, over Harney County, OR in the vicinity of Burns. Storm
movement was to the northwest at around 30 kt. Mesoanalysis places
that convection along a west-southwest to east-northeast-oriented
surface boundary that delineates a drier air mass to the south, and
a more moist and unstable environment to the north. The air mass to
the north is characterized by steep low to mid-level lapse rates,
which are yielding 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE amidst a kinematic
environment featuring 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear.

In addition to radar-observed rotation in the mid levels, some of
the storms have exhibited forward-propagating characteristics,
suggestive of damaging wind potential, in addition to the large hail
threat.

Elsewhere, convective outflow trailing additional storms across far
southwest ID has recently pushed through the Boise area, and may
serve as the focus for additional strong to severe storm
development. An additional strong thunderstorm over Washington
County ID may pose a large hail threat while moving into Baker
County OR.

..Mead.. 05/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9AqZVReEAHvqgiJCeB9V78UasBEZwIuVc6I6BKVbdA2CFcKcSP_ZAq8O-8FA-V2IJ2ZIXB4Wd= sqJY_6sVJmiyAVi_Qw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...LKN...OTX...PDT...MFR...PQR...

LAT...LON 42011499 41981725 42002085 42712092 42772131 43582131
43632196 45672190 46061786 45941677 45391636 44731617
43871615 42821507 42011499=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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