ACUS02 KWNS 181722
SWODY2
SPC AC 181720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold
front extending from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and the
southern Plains on Tuesday. Damaging winds and large hail will be
the primary threats.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough over the northern Plains into upper MS Valley
Tuesday morning will translate northeast into Ontario with an
associated belt of strong mid-level flow overspreading the Great
Lakes. The stronger mid-level winds will extend southwest into the
central High Plains, downstream from a positively tilted trough
moving through the Great Basin and lower CO Valley.

At the surface, low pressure associated with northern Plains
disturbance will develop from the upper Great Lakes through
southeast Ontario into Quebec. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will
move through the Great Lakes and OH Valley, with the trailing
extension of the boundary advancing through the mid MS Valley and
southern Plains. The cold front and any preceding outflow boundaries
associated with early-day convection will serve as the main foci for
diurnally enhanced strong to severe storm development.


...Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes and New England...

A southwesterly low-level jet will sustain a moist boundary layer
across the pre-frontal warm sector with dewpoints in the 60s to
perhaps low 70s in the OH Valley. The moisture will combine with
daytime heating to support MLCAPE ranging from 1000-1500 J/kg across
the mid/lower Great Lakes into New England, with as high as
2000-3000 J/kg forecast in the OH Valley. A broad zone of low-level
warm advection coupled with the glancing influence of the Ontario
short-wave trough are expected to support a gradual increase in
thunderstorm coverage and intensity through the afternoon along and
ahead of the synoptic cold front.

The strongest low/mid-level flow and resultant deep-layer shear is
forecast to reside across the Great Lakes and northern New England,
where transient bowing and/or supercell structures appear possible.
Weaker shear with southward extent into the OH Valley will be
supportive of multicell clusters. Damaging wind gusts appear to be
the primary hazard in both regimes, though isolated occurrences of
marginally severe hail are also possible.


...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains...

Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning along or
ahead of the cold front from the Ozarks into OK. Daytime heating of
the downstream air mass coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the
60s to low 70s and steepening mid-level lapse rates with
southwestward extent will support moderate to strong afternoon
instability with MLCAPE of 2000-3000+ J/kg. The 12z models suggest
that a subset of the early-day storms will intensify by afternoon
across the Ozark Plateau with additional thunderstorm development
anticipated along the synoptic cold front and preceding convective
outflow boundaries from the mid MS Valley into the southern Plains.
There is some model signal that one or multiple, weak disturbances
will translate from the southern Plains into Ozark Plateau during
the day, which will aid in the diurnally enhanced storm development.


As alluded to in the synopsis, the strongest mid-level flow and
associated vertical shear is expected remain confined to the
post-frontal air mass. The exception will be across parts of the TX
Permian Basin into the Big Bend and Edwards Plateau, where easterly
low-level winds ahead of front will augment modest mid-level flow to
support 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. As such, predominant
convective modes will be multicell clusters and line segments
capable of damaging winds and marginally severe hail. Large hail
potential (some hailstones in excess of 2") increases with
southwestward extent into TX owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates
and the potential for supercell storm modes, given the stronger
vertical shear.

..Mead.. 05/18/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 190549
SWODY2
SPC AC 190548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity across the Mid-Atlantic region
Wednesday may pose a risk for severe wind and hail. Large hail will
be possible with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
developing over the southern High Plains into southwest Texas.

...Synopsis...
A trough will continue to lift northward into Canada D2/Wednesday,
with a cold front extending from the Northeast southward across the
southern Ohio Valley into the lower Mississippi Valley and westward
into southwestern Texas and eastern New Mexico. Scattered strong to
severe storms are expected near the front in the mid Atlantic and
near the high terrain of western Texas.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Scattered showers and storms are expected along the cold front
Wednesday afternoon across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. The
downstream air mass will include a narrow plume of weak to moderate instability. Though deep layer shear and mid-level lapse rates will
be marginal, steep low level lapse rates will support a few
instances of strong to severe winds.

...Southwest Texas and eastern New Mexico...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
near the high terrain within the upslope flow regime across western
Texas and eastern New Mexico Wednesday afternoon. Forecast soundings
depict sufficient deep layer shear to support supercells. Moderate
to strong instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will
support potential for large hail and a few occurrences of severe
winds.

..Thornton.. 05/19/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 191719
SWODY2
SPC AC 191718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected Wednesday
afternoon into night across portions of southwest Texas into eastern
New Mexico. Large hail --potentially in excess of two inches-- will
be the predominant severe-weather hazard. Isolated occurrences of
severe wind and/or marginally severe hail are expected Wednesday
afternoon into early evening from the Cumberland Plateau into
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.

...Synopsis...

A low-amplitude short-wave trough will move through the base of an
eastern Canada trough, with a belt of strong mid/upper-level winds overspreading New England. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough initially
near the Four Corners will weaken Wednesday while moving into
confluent flow over the central High Plains. There is some model
signal for a lower-latitude impulse to move through northern Mexico
into NM and western TX Wednesday afternoon and evening.

In the low levels, a cold front will move south through New England
and the Mid-Atlantic with the western extension of the boundary
weakening through the forecast period across TX.


...Eastern New Mexico into southwest Texas and the Edwards
Plateau...

Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s will combine with
steep mid-level lapse rates to yield a moderately unstable air mass
by afternoon with MLCAPE increasing to 1500-2000 J/kg across
portions of southwest TX into the Edwards Plateau. Instability is
expected to decrease with northward extent in the immediate lee of
the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Sangre De Cristo mountains, due to
limited boundary-layer moisture content.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated
by mid/late afternoon along favored terrain, with initiation
potentially being aided by the mid-level disturbance mentioned in
the synopsis. A slight enhancement of the mid-level flow is forecast
across the area in association with the disturbance, which will
contribute to 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear across the
instability axis. As such, supercell storm modes appear likely,
especially across southwest TX where the strongest instability is
expected to reside. Large hail potentially in excess of 2" will be
the predominant hazard with the afternoon and early evening storms.
A number of the 12z models suggest that the daytime storms will grow
upscale into an MCS across portions of the Permian Basin and Concho
Valley into Edwards Plateau Wednesday evening into night with a risk
for locally damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Given the above considerations, a level 2/Slight Risk has been added
where confidence is highest in longer-lived supercell potential.


...Cumberland Plateau into Mid-Atlantic and southern New England...

A hot and a moist air mass is forecast to develop ahead of the front
Wednesday afternoon with MLCAPE increasing to 1000-2000 J/kg with
minimal capping. Convergence along the front along with terrain
influences are expected to foster a gradual increase in thunderstorm
coverage and intensity Wednesday afternoon from northern parts of
the Cumberland Plateau into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England. The strongest vertical shear is expected to reside to the
north of the surface warm sector, which coupled with poor mid-level
lapse rates, should limit the potential for organized storm modes.
Nonetheless, model soundings indicate the presence of 1.0-1.5 km
deep, well-mixed boundary-layers, which will be supportive of
locally damaging downburst winds through the afternoon into early
evening. Isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail are also
possible.

..Mead.. 05/19/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 200554
SWODY2
SPC AC 200552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND THE FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the central and
southern High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave will translate eastward across the central
Rockies on D2/Thursday. At the surface, a cold front will move
through the northern High Plains while a secondary stationary front
remains in place from the Carolinas through the Tennessee Valley
into Ozark Plateau. A few strong to severe storms capable of large
hail and damaging wind will be possible near the front range in
Colorado.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
Upslope flow into eastern Colorado will combine with modest
upper-level forcing for ascent to allow for isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms near the high terrain. Steep lapse rates,
MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg, and deep layer shear around 30-35 kts from
south of I-70 will allow for a few better organized cells capable of
large hail and damaging wind. This threat will decrease with eastern
extent into KS/OK where strengthening MLCIN will temper the severe
threat downstream.

Additional areas of scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible
across southern Oklahoma into northern/central Texas and across far
western Texas in the afternoon. Generally weak deep layer shear
should limit the severe risk. A few instances of gusty winds and
small hail will be possible.

...Elsewhere...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across the northern
Rockies into the northern Plains near the upper-low. Weak moisture
and limited instability will likely keep storms sub-severe. Widely
scattered thunderstorms will also be likely south of the stationary
front from the Carolinas into the Tennessee and Mississippi Valleys.
While marginal instability will be in place, weak deep layer shear
profiles will lead to more disorganized storms and limit the overall
severe threat.

..Thornton.. 05/20/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 201726
SWODY2
SPC AC 201724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are expected to develop across
eastern Colorado Thursday afternoon and evening. Large hail will be
the predominant hazard, with locally severe wind gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado or two also possible.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough and associated jet streak initially over the
northern Rockies Thursday morning will progress southeast into the
central Rockies by Thursday night. Farther to the south, a
short-wave trough will translate from the southern Plains into lower
MS Valley.

At the surface, a weak surface low is expected to develop from
southeast WY into western SD by Thursday evening, along a front
advancing through the northern High Plains. A lee trough will deepen
from the vicinity of low south through eastern parts of CO and NM.
Elsewhere, a cold front will push south from VA into the Carolinas
with the western extension of that boundary lifting north through
the lower MS Valley Thursday night in response to weak cyclogenesis
in that area.


...Central High Plains...

While low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, the presence
of steep low/mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE of
750-1000+ J/kg during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle.
Low-level upslope flow will be augmented by increased forcing for
ascent downstream from the approaching short-wave trough to foster
widely scattered thunderstorm development along favored terrain by
mid to late afternoon.

Strengthening mid-level flow coupled with the southeasterly
low-level wind component will yield effective bulk shear of 40-50
kt, supportive of supercell storm modes with the predominant hazard
being large hail. A brief tornado or two is possible, owing to
strengthening low-level shear by early evening. however, the
marginal moisture content is expected to limit a more robust threat.


...Western Dakotas...

At least a marginally unstable air mass is expected to develop ahead
of the front, supporting widely scattered thunderstorm development
by afternoon. Stronger vertical shear is expected to reside to the
south of the area, limiting the potential for organized storm modes. Nonetheless, locally strong wind gusts and sub-severe hail appear
possible with the strongest storms.


...West Texas...

There is some model signal that a broken band of thunderstorms may
evolve near the NM/TX state line by late afternoon or evening,
amidst a steep lapse rate environment. Some potential will exist for
locally strong wind gusts and/or hail with that activity.


...Eastern Oklahoma into Northeast Texas...

The 12z convection-allowing models indicate a broader-scale complex
of storms evolving across the area Thursday. Weak vertical shear and
poor lapses are expected to limit the potential for storm
organization. However, the presence of a moist and moderately
unstable air mass will support briefly vigorous up/downdrafts
capable of locally strong wind gusts.


...Deep South Texas...

Remnants of overnight storms may be ongoing Thursday morning with
another round of thunderstorms potentially moving through the area
late Thursday night into Friday morning. Some potential will exist
for a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail.


...Lower MS Valley...

The models suggest that low-level shear will strengthen late
Thursday night into Friday morning in response to weak cyclogenesis
over the area. Lapse rates will be poor, limiting instability.
However, given the presence of a moist/low-lcl boundary layer, some
potential for low-level updraft rotation will exist with any deeper
convective elements, with a non-zero risk for a brief tornado.


...Southern VA into the Carolinas....

A hot, well-mixed boundary layer is forecast ahead of the front
Thursday afternoon. However, forecast soundings indicate warm
mid-level temperatures (500 mb and above), which are expected to
limit overall parcel buoyancy. Nonetheless, a few locally strong
wind gusts appear possible with storms developing along and ahead of
the boundary.

..Mead.. 05/20/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210552
SWODY2
SPC AC 210550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across portions
of the southern Plains with potential for large hail and damaging
wind.

...Synopsis...
Two weak shortwaves, with one wave in central Plains and a secondary
wave into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys, are forecast within the
broader Northern Rockies trough through afternoon on D2/Friday. A
surface low will be located across eastern New Mexico/southeastern
Colorado with a front lifting northward into Kansas and a dryline
extending southward into southwestern Texas. Another surface low
will develop across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys with a warm
front lifting northward across Kentucky. These features will be the
focus for scattered thunderstorm development in both regions by the afternoon/evening.

...Southern and Central Plains...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across the Cap Rock
near the dryline in Texas and back into eastern New Mexico along the
high terrain Friday afternoon and evening. Steep low to mid-level
lapse rates will be in place across much of the region from eastern
New Mexico into western Texas. Dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s
and daytime heating will yield moderate instability amid deep layer
shear around 30-40 kts. This will promote initial supercells across
the high terrain with potential for additional multi-cell clusters
through time. These may grow upscale into an MCS into western
Oklahoma by the evening. The primary risk will be for large hail
before the damaging wind risk increases into the evening.
A few additional strong thunderstorms may extend into portions of
southern Kansas. The thermodynamic environment becomes less
favorable with northern extent due to widespread cloud cover and
morning precipitation. However, increasing mid-level flow and shear
may allow for a few organized cells with potential for large hail
and strong to severe wind further north.

...Tennessee and Ohio Valleys...
A warm front will lift across northern Tennessee into Kentucky
through the afternoon on Friday, with 60-70s dew points streaming
northward ahead of the approaching mid-level wave. Modest height
falls are expected across western Kentucky into the Ohio Valley,
with an increase in 850-700 mb flow. Widely scattered thunderstorms
are expected overnight into Friday morning. An increase in this
activity can be expected as a vorticity maxima and increasing large
scale ascent into the afternoon occurs. Though instability will be
marginal, guidance does suggest a plume of higher theta-e air may
advect into western/central Kentucky by the afternoon. In addition,
guidance suggests a few transient supercells will be possible with
potential for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.

..Thornton.. 05/21/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 211722
SWODY2
SPC AC 211720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible across western parts of Texas and Oklahoma. An isolated
hail threat may extend into central Kansas, with sporadic
occurrences of damaging wind and perhaps a few brief tornadoes from
the central Gulf Coast into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough over the northern and central High Plains Friday
morning will become negatively tilted while translating through the
upper MS Valley, ahead of a weaker, upstream disturbance moving
through the central Rockies into central High Plains. Meanwhile, a
series of lower-latitude disturbances will progress from the
southern Plains and lower MS Valley into the TN and OH Valleys.

At the surface, an area of low pressure will track from SD into
northwest MN with a trailing cold front advancing east/southeast
through the central Plains, and south into the southern High Plains
where it will link with a secondary low pressure. A dryline is
expected to sharpen through the afternoon from the intersection of
the cold front in the vicinity of the TX South Plains into the
Edwards Plateau. Elsewhere, a surface low is forecast to develop
from western TN into IN/OH with an associated warm front lifting
north into the OH Valley.


...Central and Southern Plains...

An axis of 50s to low 60s dewpoints is expected to reside ahead of
the cold front and dryline, with the steepest mid-level lapse rates
confined to the southern High Plains portion of the warm sector.
Resultant MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg is forecast over western TX into
the southern Panhandle, with instability decreasing with
northeastward extent across KS and NE.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop early in the day
along the front in NE with additional storms forming southwestward
along the boundary during the afternoon from central KS into the
southern TX Panhandle or TX South Plains, with more isolated
development possible south along the dryline. Additional storms are
possible in the immediate post-frontal environment in northeast NE.

The most favorable overlap of moderate instability and around 30 kt
of deep-layer shear is expected to reside over parts of western TX
and the Panhandle where the potential will exist for supercell storm
modes with the predominant hazard being large hail. Storms may tend
to grow upscale into an MCS with a wind and hail threat spreading
into parts of western OK and northwest TX Friday evening.

Lesser-organized multicell structures appear possible from central
KS into southeast NE. The best potential for marginally severe hail
is expected over central KS where comparably (to NE) stronger
instability will develop.


...Central Gulf Coast and Southeast into Ohio Valley...

Some enhancement of the mid-level wind field will occur in
association with the disturbances mentioned in the synopsis. Of
potentially greater importance to severe-weather potential is the
presence of a 25-40 kt low-level jet, which will persist through the
day from the central Gulf Coast north toward the OH River amidst a
moist and marginally to moderately unstable air mass with afternoon
MLCAPE of 500-1500+ J/kg.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected within the
northward-expanding warm sector, with the strongest instability
confined to cloud-free areas where greater daytime heating can
occur. Embedded strong to severe storms will be most probable in
those areas, and given the presence of 30-35 kt deep-layer shear,
some potential for storm organization will exist, despite the
existence of poor mid-level lapse rates. A corridor of stronger
low-level shear (i.e., effective SRH of 100-200 m2/s2) is forecast
from eastern MS and western AL through middle TN into OH, along the
low-level jet axis, where a few brief tornadoes appear possible.
Otherwise, locally damaging downburst winds appear to be the primary
hazard.

..Mead.. 05/21/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 220559
SWODY2
SPC AC 220558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from
the Raton Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and
southward near the middle Texas Coast. Additional severe
thunderstorms will be possible in portions of central Georgia.

...Synopsis...
A weak impulse will rotate across the central Plains on D2/Saturday
as a surface low moves northward across the Ohio Valley. A trailing
cold front will extend from the surface low back into the southern
Plains. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible
from the central/southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley
and across the Southeast. A few stronger storms may be possible
across portions of the southern Plains and the southeastern US.

...TX/OK Panhandles...
Weak forcing for ascent and easterly upslope flow across the Caprock
and into the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico will produce
scattered thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon. These are
progged to move eastward downstream across the Panhandles into
portions of western Oklahoma. Forecast soundings suggest a plume of
steep to low mid-level lapse rates will still reside across the
OK/TX Panhandles with mid 50s to 60s dew points and moderate
instability. Shear profiles will be marginal, with deep layer shear
around 25-30 kts. Nonetheless, a few more organized storms may
produce strong to severe wind and instances of severe hail.

...Middle Texas Coast...
Thunderstorm activity is expected to form near the Edwards Plateau
on Saturday afternoon and move south and east towards the middle
Texas coast. Ahead of this, moderate to strong afternoon instability
and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place across
portions of southern Texas. Some enhancement of
deep-layer shear is forecast across south TX, which will may provide opportunity for cold pool organization and damaging wind.

...Central/Southern Georgia...
A weak shortwave will move across Georgia Saturday afternoon as
widely scattered thunderstorm development occurs. Most guidance
suggests deep layer shear around 30-40 kts which may allow for a few
more organized cells. These may produce a few instances of strong to
severe wind.

..Thornton.. 05/22/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221730
SWODY2
SPC AC 221728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...GEORGIA INTO UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...PARTS
OF UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to potentially severe storms appear possible on
Saturday from the Raton Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles and southward near the middle Texas Coast. Additional
severe thunderstorms will be possible in portions of central Georgia
and parts of the Upper Ohio Valley.

...Southern High Plains...
Moderate mid-level flow across the central Rockies will persist in
the wake of a shortwave trough lifting into the northern Plains.
Flow will generally weaken with southern extent into the High
Plains. Even so, moist southeasterly winds into the higher terrain
will promote effective shear around 35 kt. The main question will be
the quality of the moisture with convection expected to impact parts
of the region on Friday evening into the overnight. The most likely
scenario is that isolated storm development occur within the Raton
Mesa and evolves eastward/southeastward. Storms would be initially
supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Shear does weaken
to the east so some clustering is possible as outflow interact.
Another possibility, though more uncertain, is that convection could
develop farther southeast along a remnant outflow boundary, but this
activity would likely move into an environment with weaker shear
quickly.

...Upper Ohio Valley...
A shortwave trough now in the Mid-South will lift northeast into the
Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Saturday. A modest surface low, though
slowly weakening with time, will pull upper 60s F dewpoints into
parts of the region. Morning precipitation is expected to clear out
and allow for at least filtered surface heating. The enhanced 850 mb
winds, proximity to the warm front, and modest effective shear
(around 30 kt) could potentially support a stronger storm or two.
Though conditional, a brief tornado would be possible in this
environment.

...Georgia/South Carolina...
A weak shortwave trough will move into Georgia. Low 70s F dewpoints
and temperatures in the 80s F will support 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE
despite weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered to numerous storms
appear possible near the shortwave as well as along the wedge front
in South Carolina. Shear will be weak, but a few water-loaded
downbursts may produce damaging winds.

...Hill Country/South Texas/Middle Texas Coast...
A shortwave trough within the subtropical jet will approach the
region during the afternoon/early evening. A very moist (70+
dewpoints) airmass will be in place. Isolated to widely scattered
convection will be possible from the Rio Grande vicinity and perhaps
along the Gulf Breeze front. Effective shear of 30-40 kt and steep low/mid-level lapse rates will support the threat of large hail and
severe winds.

..Wendt.. 05/22/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230555
SWODY2
SPC AC 230553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the southern/central Plains to the southeastern US into the lower Ohio
Valley. A few stronger storms may be possible from central Nebraska
into southwest Minnesota.

...Synopsis...
Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are likely south of a
stationary front extending from the southern Plains into the lower
Ohio Valley. A few additional thunderstorms will be possible across
the southern High Plains within the easterly upslope regime. A weak
shortwave trough will move across the central/northern Plains into
the Upper Midwest on D2/Sunday, which may be a focus of thunderstorm development across portions of Nebraska into Minnesota. Large hail
and damaging wind will be the primary threat with these storms.

...Nebraska into Minnesota...
A plume of mid 50s to 60s dew points will advect northward into
portions of eastern Nebraska into southern Minnesota Sunday
afternoon amid increasing southerly flow across the central/northern
Plains. A weak shortwave will move eastward across this area with
thunderstorm development likely by the afternoon. Forecast soundings
suggest that deep layer shear will be sufficient to support
supercells, with around 40 kts in the 0-6 km layer. In addition to
the increase in moisture, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will
also overspread the area. This, in combination with strong deep
layer shear, will favor potential for large hail (isolated very
large hail up to 2" in diameter). Well mixed profiles may also
support a few instances of strong to severe wind.

..Thornton.. 05/23/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231727
SWODY2
SPC AC 231725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN KS
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NE...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN...NORTHWEST
IA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible from parts of the
central Plains into the Upper Midwest, mainly Sunday afternoon and
evening. Isolated large to very large hail and localized severe
gusts will be possible.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Upper Midwest
will move over the Great Lakes region on Sunday. Broad southerly
flow between a surface ridge near the mid MS Valley and a lee trough
over the High Plains will result in some moisture return into parts
of the central Plains and Upper Midwest, though the magnitude of
this moisture return remains somewhat uncertain. Steep midlevel
lapse rates and relatively cool midlevel temperatures atop the
returning moisture will result in moderate to locally strong
destabilization by late afternoon.

Broad midlevel height rises are expected across the region, in the
wake of the departing shortwave trough. However, guidance suggests
that one or more weak midlevel vorticity maxima may aid in at least
isolated diurnal thunderstorm development near a weak surface
trough/dryline from central NE into southeast SD/southwest MN.
Deep-layer flow will remain generally modest, but veering wind
profiles and 30-40 kt of effective shear will conditionally support
supercells, if surface-based development can be sustained. Large to
very large hail and localized severe gusts could accompany any
supercell development during the afternoon and evening.

A Level 2/Slight Risk upgrade was considered for parts of the
region, but due to uncertainties regarding low-level moisture and
storm coverage, have opted to maintain a Level 1/Marginal Risk, with
a conditional area highlighting very large hail potential, should
any sustained supercells develop.

...Southeast/southern Appalachians...
Scattered thunderstorm development is again expected across the
region, within a moist and uncapped environment. A belt of 20-30 kt
midlevel flow to the east of the mid/upper trough across TX will
provide modest deep-layer shear, but weak midlevel lapse rates will
tend to limit updraft intensity. Locally damaging wind cannot be
ruled out with convection across the region, but the
organized-severe threat currently appears too limited and nebulous
to include probabilities at this time. If a robust MCV emerges from
extensive convection near the Gulf Coast, then somewhat more
organized severe potential could evolve through the day.

...LA Gulf Coast/Lower MS Valley vicinity...
Widespread convection is expected to persist from D1/Saturday into
D2/Sunday across parts of the LA Gulf Coast and lower MS Valley, as
the nearly stationary mid/upper trough over TX interacts with rich
moisture. Generally weak flow and lapse rates are currently expected
to limit the organized-severe threat. Any more organized potential
for a brief tornado or locally damaging wind would likely be
contingent on MCV development, but this scenario remains highly
uncertain at this time.

...Lower OH Valley/Allegheny Plateau...
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Ohio
Valley and Allegheny Plateau during the afternoon, in association
with the mid/upper trough moving across the Great Lakes region.
Modest midlevel flow will overspread the region and isolated strong
storms will be possible, but weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy
are expected to limit severe potential.

..Dean.. 05/23/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 240547
SWODY2
SPC AC 240546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential currently appears low for
Monday. Isolated strong storms may develop across parts of the Great
Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast.

...Synopsis...
A high amplitude ridge will build in from the west across the Plains
on D2/Monday with height rises and weakening mid-level flow amid
warming surface temperatures. An upper level low will begin to
deepen and move inland across the Pacific Northwest. Widely
scattered areas of thunderstorm development can be expected from the
Southwest to the Central Plains/Upper Midwest and across the
Southeast. A few strong storms will be possible across the Plains to
the Midwest and in the Southeast.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region...
While moderate buoyancy will extend across much of the Plains into
the Midwest Monday afternoon, generally weak flow should temper the
more organized severe threat. Modest west-northwesterly flow will
overspread portions of MN/WI and Upper MI with a quick weak
mid-level wave moving through the Great Lakes trough. Generally, the
best forcing for ascent will be early with height rises expected by
the afternoon. This leads to low confidence in thunderstorm
development, though the air mass could conditionally support severe
potential.

...Southern NM into west TX...
An isolated strong storm or two could be possible from southern New
Mexico into western Texas as an embedded shortwave moves across the
Southwest. Deeply mixed profiles across New Mexico may support a
strong to severe gust. However, the deeper moisture remains
displaced to the east across western Texas.

...Parts of the Gulf Coast/Southeast...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected overnight
D1/Sunday into D2/Monday across the Gulf coast states. Depending on
how this evolves and where resulting MCVs occur, a corridor of
severe wind potential may be possible. For now confidence in the
placement of mesoscale features remains too low.

..Thornton.. 05/24/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 241734
SWODY2
SPC AC 241732

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MN
ARROWHEAD REGION...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...PARTS
OF NM/FAR WEST TX...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of
the Minnesota Arrowhead region, central Plains and Midwest,
Southeast, and New Mexico/Far West Texas on Monday.

...MN Arrowhead region...
While large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best amidst modest
midlevel height rises, most guidance depicts strong heating and
potential for at least isolated storm development in the vicinity of
a cold front across parts of MN Arrowhead region during the
afternoon. Deep-layer flow will be modest, but southwesterly surface
winds veering to west-northwesterly aloft will result in 30-35 kt of
effective shear, sufficient for storm organization. Relatively steep
lapse rates and moderate buoyancy will support isolated hail and
localized strong/damaging gusts, if storms can mature across this
region.

...Central Plains into southwest MN/northwest IA...
While forcing will generally be weak, strong diurnal heating may
support isolated storm development in the vicinity of a weak surface trough/confluence zone from northern NE/southern SD into northwest
IA/southwest MN. Deep-layer flow will be weak, but modest midlevel west-northwesterlies may provide sufficient deep-layer shear for
some storm organization. Favorable lapse rates and buoyancy will
support potential for isolated hail and localized damaging gusts.

...NM into Far West Texas...
Relatively widespread convection is expected on Monday across parts
of NM into Far West TX, in association with mid/upper-level trough
over the Southwest. Buoyancy is expected to remain relatively modest
across NM, but generally unidirectional southerly flow within a
relatively well-mixed environment will support outflow-driven
clusters capable of localized severe gusts. Strong storms may spread
into parts of Far West TX Monday night, with a continued threat of
strong to localized severe gusts.

...Southeast...
A similar regime to previous days is expected across the Gulf
Coast/Southeast, with widespread convection expected to the east of
a persistent mid/upper-level trough over east TX. Water-loaded
downdrafts will again be capable producing localized wind damage,
with any more organized potential tied to uncertain MCV development.
A Marginal Risk has been included from the FL Panhandle into GA,
where there appears to be the greatest potential for preconvective heating/destabilization. If organized MCV development occurs, then
there may be some severe potential to the west and north of this
Marginal Risk area.

...Interior Northwest/Northern Rockies...
Thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from far eastern
OR/WA into ID/western MT/northwest WY, in advance of a vigorous
mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving into the Pacific Northwest.
Much of this activity may be relatively high-based and disorganized,
with strong outflow gusts possible. The most aggressive guidance
regarding moistening and destabilization suggests some marginal
supercell potential across northern ID and far western MT. Severe
probabilities may eventually be needed across parts of the region,
if guidance consensus trends towards a greater potential for
organized convection.

..Dean.. 05/24/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 250550
SWODY2
SPC AC 250548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into
southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon and evening. Across this
region, large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado will be
possible.

...Synopsis...
The pattern on D2/Tuesday will include a deepening mid-level low
across the Pacific Northwest and height rises with a building high
downstream across the central/northern US. A shortwave with multiple
embedded vorticity maximas will move across Texas. This will be the
focus of scattered severe thunderstorm development by the afternoon.


...Eastern New Mexico and Western Texas...
As forcing for ascent increases across Texas Tuesday afternoon,
widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected from the Davis
Mountains to the Edwards Plateau and to the southern Permian Basin.
Moderate instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates are
forecast across the region, with increasing deep layer shear to
around 30-40 kts. Mode will likely include a few supercells and
multi-cell clusters capable of large to very large hail and severe
wind gusts. Forecast soundings indicate low-level SRH may increase
through the late afternoon/evening, which could support some
increase in tornado potential.

Through time, cells are progged to cluster and move downstream into
portions of south Texas. Should cells be able to maintain cold pool organization, damaging wind potential may extend to the southern
Texas coast. The Slight Risk remains unchanged but a minor eastward
expansion was given to the Marginal Risk to account for this
potential.

...Montana...
Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected with the upper trough
across portions of southern Idaho into Montana. Modest instability
and strengthening deep layer shear amid deeply mixed profiles may
allow for a few stronger storms with potential for marginally severe
hail and severe gusts.

..Thornton.. 05/25/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 251734
SWODY2
SPC AC 251732

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will be possible across West/southwest Texas
into south-central Texas Tuesday afternoon and night, including
potential for large hail, damaging winds and a couple tornadoes.

...Eastern New Mexico and West/south-central Texas...
Forcing for ascent will arrive into the region Tuesday afternoon via
a lead shortwave trough, with increasing thunderstorm development
expected from the Davis Mountains to the Edwards Plateau and to the
southern Permian Basin. Moderate instability and steep low to
mid-level lapse rates are forecast across the region, with
increasing deep layer shear to around 30-40 kt. Mode will likely
include initially discrete supercells and multicell clusters capable
of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts, along with a
tornado risk as low-level winds/SRH increase particularly late in
the day across parts of the Permian Basin. Storms should grow
upscale by evening as they progress east-southeastward Tuesday night
toward south-central Texas with at least some continued severe
potential.

...Montana/Northern Intermountain West...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon into evening,
aided by forcing for ascent related to the amplifying upper trough
and the upper-jet exit region. Modest instability and strengthening
deep layer shear amid deeply mixed profiles may allow for a few
stronger storms with potential for marginally severe hail and
locally severe wind gusts.

...Upper Midwest including parts of Wisconsin/Minnesota...
While influenced by upper ridging and weak overall forcing for
ascent, a moist/moderately unstable environment will exist
along/south of generally southward-shifting front. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm development is plausible particularly
into peak heating. Diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates,
upwards of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE within a weak vertical shear (20-30
kt effective) could yield some pulse-type/multicellular storms
capable of marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging winds.

...Northern Maine...
As a shortwave trough/mid-level jet streak approaches from Quebec, a
few strong or locally severe storms could develop into the region
Tuesday late afternoon or early evening. Some questions linger
regarding the degree of destabilization of timing of relevant
features, but this will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame for
a potential need for severe probabilities.

..Guyer.. 05/25/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 260545
SWODY2
SPC AC 260544

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong storms are expected primarily over parts of
Virginia and Maryland Wednesday afternoon and early evening. A few
damaging gusts will be possible.

...Synopsis...
Height falls will occur over the northeastern states on Wednesday as
a positive-tilt upper trough moves across the Great Lakes and toward
the Mid Atlantic. This will flatten the upper ridge over the
Southeast, with increasing westerlies aloft. At the surface, a
trough will develop from southern New England into eastern VA, with
strong daytime heating. Dewpoints in the upper 60s F will be common,
aiding instability.

Elsewhere, a deep upper low will be nearly stationary from central
CA into western NV, with a surface trough developing during the
afternoon from UT into southern ID and eastern OR. Strong heating
within this trough may yield scattered thunderstorms moving
northwestward across parts of ID into OR, with locally gusty winds.

Farther north, instability may develop over WI and vicinity, near a southwestward-moving cold front and on the back side of the upper
trough. Isolated strong cells cannot be ruled out with gusty winds.

...Mid Atlantic Region...
Scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of IN/OH/PA
within a warm advection zone with westerly 850 mb winds. This
activity will generally shift east/southeast during the day, as the
air mass ahead of it destabilizes. Possible outflow from this
activity, as well as surface convergence within the heating air mass
should yield additional cells/clusters during the afternoon, moving east/southeast across VA, MD, and northern NC. Though lapse rates
aloft will not be particularly steep, high PWAT along with peak
heating and increasing winds aloft will support storm longevity,
with possible forward-propagating clusters. Increasing deep-layer
shear may also support cellular storm mode. A few strong to severe
wind gusts appear most likely during the late afternoon and early
evening.

..Jewell.. 05/26/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 261700
SWODY2
SPC AC 261658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts may occur on Wednesday
over parts of the Mid Atlantic Region.

...Mid Atlantic Region...
A strong shortwave trough will track southeastward across Ontario on
Wednesday, with mid-level height falls and cooling aloft occurring
over much of the northeast states. At the surface, the primary
surface boundary will extend from southern OH across WV/MD into
VA/DE. A warm/humid and moderately unstable air mass will be
present along and south of the boundary, promoting the development
of scattered thunderstorms from eastern KY to the coast. Storms
will track southeastward through the afternoon and early evening
through an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and moderately
strong westerly flow above the boundary layer. This would support a
risk of damaging wind gusts in the more organized cells/clusters.
Isolated afternoon thunderstorms may also form over the higher
terrain of western NC with a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds.

...TX Panhandle...
A shortwave trough currently over eastern NM will continue to rotate
northward across the Plains on Wednesday, with the upper thermal
trough present over eastern CO/western KS and the TX/OK Panhandles.
A convectively enhanced surface boundary is expected to lie across
the northern TX panhandle by afternoon, with strong heating
occurring to the south of front. This should provide sufficient destabilization for widely scattered thunderstorm development by
late afternoon. Despite relatively weak vertical shear, steep
mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft suggest a risk of
multicell storms capable of large hail.

..Hart.. 05/26/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 270526
SWODY2
SPC AC 270525

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
OREGON INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHWEST
MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday over western
Montana, northern Idaho, and into central Oregon/Washington. A few
damaging gusts or marginal hail will be possible.

...Synopsis & Discussion...
An upper low will move slowly from CA into NV on Thursday, with a
leading midlevel speed max forecast to move from UT northward across
ID, OR and WA. Cooling aloft will occur along with 40-50 kt 500 mb
winds enhancing deep-layer shear. A surface trough will also deepen
during the afternoon roughly from UT into eastern WA, with strong
heating and steepening lapse rates aiding destabilization.

Scattered storms are forecast to develop by early afternoon over
central OR, with additional activity extending northeastward across
northern ID, eastern WA and northwest MT. Though total CAPE values
are questionably high by some models, sufficient instability will
exist, along with favorable large-scale ascent and steep lapse
rates. This will favor northwestward-moving cells and perhaps a few
bows, with at least isolated severe gusts or marginal hail expected.

Elsewhere, scattered storms are likely during the afternoon and
evening from KS/OK into the Southeast. Winds aloft and shear will be
weak across this entire region, and severe storms are largely not
expected. Still, sporadic strong gusts cannot be ruled out.

..Jewell.. 05/27/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 271731
SWODY2
SPC AC 271730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE COLUMBIA BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are possible on Thursday over portions of
the Columbia Basin with more isolated storms across the broader
Northwest region. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, with
some threat for large hail.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough currently on the western periphery of
the broader mid-level low across California at mid-day Wednesday
will move around the low-pressure center and emerge across the
Northwest on Thursday. East of this low, a strong mid-level ridge
will be maintained across the central CONUS with a mid-level trough
in the east. This pattern will result in a mostly nebulous surface
pattern other than a more defined area of high pressure across the
Great Lakes.

...Northwest...
Low-level moisture will increase across the Columbia Basin Wednesday
and Thursday, primarily from the northeasterly surface flow. This
moisture, combined with cooling air aloft and robust surface
heating, will result in abnormally large instability across the
region. In fact, the GFS/NAM/RAP forecast soundings show record-high
MLCAPE values at OTX tomorrow afternoon. Given the climatological
extreme of these values, it seems unlikely to be as high as forecast
(1500-2000 J/kg). However, even 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE would result in
an environment favorable for severe storms, particularly across
northern Oregon and south-central Washington where even the HRRR
shows 1000 to 1200 J/kg MLCAPE. Very steep mid-level lapse rates
(near 9 C/km) and moderate shear will also support organized severe
storms.

The timing of the mid-level shortwave trough emerging across Oregon
appears to be well-timed with afternoon peak heating. Therefore,
expect storms to initially form across east-central Oregon and move north-northwestward through the evening. Most 12Z CAM guidance shows
upscale growth into a linear segment which would likely support a
damaging wind threat, particularly given the steep lapse rate
environment. For these reasons, have upgraded to a Level 2 Slight
Risk across portions of the Columbia Basin.

Expanded the wind probabilities across the Cascades slightly as the
environment appears to be favorable to the west of the crests.
However, it appears the marine layer should move into areas such as
Portland prior to the arrival of the storms. Therefore, have kept
severe probabilities east of this zone where the marine layer will
likely have a stabilizing effect.

..Bentley.. 05/27/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 280552
SWODY2
SPC AC 280551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MONTANA...AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms may produce marginal hail or strong gusts from eastern
New Mexico and western Texas across Oklahoma and toward northern
Louisiana on Friday. A few strong to severe storms may also occur
across western Montana with gusty winds and marginal hail. Isolated
damaging wind gusts are also possible across portions of the central
High Plains.

...MT...
An upper low will weaken as it moves from the Great Basin to the
central Rockies, with cool temperatures aloft persisting over much
of the region. A surface trough will deepen over central MT with a
cold front moving across ID and into western MT. Daytime heating and
steepening lapse rates may aid wind gust potential as storms develop
late in the day from western into central MT. Relatively strong
upper-level winds will elongate hodographs, and may support cells
producing marginal hail.

...Central High Plains...
Low-level moisture will spread westward into northern CO and eastern
WY as a low pressure trough develops from MT into eastern CO during
the afternoon. Steep lapse rates and 50s F dewpoints will result in
perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE supporting storms forming from southeast WY
into the Front Range. These storms may produce strong to locally
severe outflow winds.

...Southern Plains...
An upper-level jet of 50-70 kt will move into southern NM and
western TX, though midlevel winds will be at or below 30 kt. Strong
heating will occur over the region while southeast surface winds
maintain moisture influx. Storms should form during the afternoon
from eastern NM and spread across western TX and perhaps into
southwest KS. Cool midlevel temperatures may support marginal hail,
though gusty outflow winds will be the most common threat.
Additionally, a few storms may occur farther east from OK into
northeast TX, AR and LA where dewpoints and instability will be
greater. Any storms that can form within the uncapped air mass would
likely move southeastward with isolated strong gust potential.

..Jewell.. 05/28/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281720
SWODY2
SPC AC 281718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MONTANA...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms may produce marginal hail or strong gusts from eastern
New Mexico and western Texas across Oklahoma and toward Kansas on
Friday. A few strong to severe storms may also occur across western
Montana with gusty winds and marginal hail. Isolated severe storms
are also possible across portions of the central High Plains.

...Synopsis...
A closed low across the Great Basin will become an open wave on
Friday and start to advance northeast toward the central Rockies. As
this occurs, lee troughing will begin across the southern and
central High Plains and into eastern Montana. A strong mid-level
trough will move southward across eastern Canada into the Northeast.


...Western into north-central Montana...
Weak to moderate instability will build across western Montana on
Friday as dewpoints increase into the mid 50s and mid-level
temperatures cool. Mid-level flow is forecast to increase to 25 to
30 knots across western Montana which may provide sufficient shear
for a few more organized storms. These storms should develop by
mid-afternoon and move northward, potentially growing upscale into
one or more linear structures.

...Central High Plains...
Surface moisture is forecast to back up near the terrain across
northern Colorado and southeast Wyoming on Friday. This will lead to
weak to moderate instability across the region. In addition to
typical terrain circulations, guidance suggests a weak mid-level
shortwave trough may emerge across the region and provide additional
support for storm development. Shear is forecast to remain
relatively weak, but weak to moderate instability, and steep lapse
rates will support some threat for severe wind gusts and perhaps
isolated large hail.

...Southern High Plains into the central Plains...
A southern stream mid-level jet streak is forecast to emerge from
northern Mexico into the southern High Plains Friday
afternoon/evening. This ~40 knot jet streak will overspread portions
of the southern High Plains and the dryline. This should provide
ample shear for storm organization during the afternoon/evening.
Greater storm coverage and storm organization may exist between
Midland and Amarillo at the nose of this stronger mid-level flow.
However, it appears the greater moisture will remain farther east
and thus, storm intensity maybe somewhat mitigated. Therefore,
hail/wind probabilities remain 5% at this time.

Additional storms may develop from central Kansas to north-central
Oklahoma along a frontal boundary amid weak isentropic ascent.
Greater instability is expected within this zone, however, mid-level
flow is forecast to be weaker which may challenge storm
organization.

..Bentley.. 05/28/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 290559
SWODY2
SPC AC 290557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on
Saturday from parts of western and central Nebraska into southern
and western South Dakota. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also
be possible in the northern High Plains, and from parts of the
central Plains into the southern High Plains.

...Western and Central Nebraska/Southern and Western South
Dakota/Eastern Wyoming/Northeast Colorado/Southeast Montana...
At mid-levels, a low will remain over southwestern Wyoming on
Saturday, as a shortwave trough moves into the central High Plains.
At the surface, a trough will deepen over the central and northern
High Plains. Surface winds will be from a southeasterly direction
over much of Nebraska and South Dakota, which will result in
moisture advection throughout the day. By afternoon, surface
dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability over
much of the central Plains extending northwestward into the northern
High Plains. Low-level convergence is forecast to become maximized
near a well-developed dryline. In response, scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop near the dryline in the afternoon and move
north and northeastward across western and central Nebraska into
southern South Dakota.

To the east of the dryline and near the moist axis, MLCAPE is
forecast to increase into the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range by late
afternoon. Forecast soundings at 00Z in west-central Nebraska
suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range with
700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This will be favorable for
supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. The severe threat
is expected to persist into the mid to late evening, as a cluster of
strong to severe storms moves northeastward across central Nebraska
and south-central South Dakota. Widely-spaced severe thunderstorms
will also be possible across parts of southeast Montana, but
instability is forecast to be weaker which will keep any severe
threat more localized.

...Kansas/Oklahoma/West Texas...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be located over much of the south-central U.S. on Saturday. At the surface, a sharply defined
dryline is forecast to be located from central Kansas
south-southwestward into western Oklahoma and west-central Texas. To
the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will
contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Along and to the
east of much of the dryline, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the
30 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
environment will support an isolated severe threat. Hail and strong
wind gusts will be the primary hazards. Forcing is expected to be
relatively weak which will keep storm coverage isolated.

..Broyles.. 05/29/2026

$$

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