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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0287

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Mar 23 00:20:30 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 230020
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 230020=20
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-230145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0287
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0720 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

    Areas affected...central/southern parts of IL/IN/OH

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 73...74...

    Valid 230020Z - 230145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 73, 74
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe hail should be the primary hazard with elevated
    thunderstorms spreading east-southeast into late evening in a
    portion of the Midwest.

    DISCUSSION...Convective development has largely been sustained about
    80 miles north of a southeastward-moving cold front approaching the
    OH River. This arc of elevated storms was rooted near 750 mb per
    ACARS data near IND and appears likely to be the primary focus for
    severe potential through late evening. The cores across central IN
    to central OH have had generally marginal severe hail MRMS
    signatures with several semi-discrete structures. Ample speed shear
    through the cloud-bearing layer will offer potential for updrafts
    capable of sporadic severe hail up to around golf-ball size,
    including left and right splits.

    Farther south on the front, attempts at surface-based storms appear
    to have largely failed within persistent MLCIN and weak large-scale
    ascent outside of the undercutting boundary. With nocturnal
    boundary-layer cooling ahead of the front, it seems unlikely that
    additional development will occur. Current elevated storms across
    south-central IL will probably be the back edge of sustained severe
    potential as they shift east-southeastward.

    ..Grams.. 03/23/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!55ukNJeMDJZsoSBXeeSMYu7X7FcMl_m1OPbh557436IbBpE4nS-WbJ6Z6XFi8PL2u3Az8yrmn= ALUbaV0pky6QmAnqsw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...

    LAT...LON 40968294 40868231 39998225 39558231 39128300 38938542
    38278775 38228833 38478867 39568852 40428684 40968294=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)