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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0286

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Mar 22 22:37:29 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 222237
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222236=20
    PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-230030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0286
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0536 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

    Areas affected...Upper Ohio Valley into northern Mid-Atlantic

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 72...

    Valid 222236Z - 230030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 72
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging wind potential will
    continue at least into early evening. Storms moving east will likely
    weaken with time. The strongest storms are more probable along the
    cold front moving south.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered convection continues within WW 72 late this
    afternoon. The strongest storms are currently located in
    southeastern Ohio where steeper low/mid-level lapse rates exist.
    Anafrontal convection also is occurring in central Pennsylvania and
    is moving eastward. These storms have shown a general weakening
    trend as they move into a cooler, less unstable airmass. Additional
    storms may form along/behind the front as very subtle forcing for
    ascent approaches the region.

    Regional VAD data shows strong deep-layer shear with a relatively
    straight hodograph. The strongest storms will split as is currently
    occurring in southeast Ohio/northern West Virginia Panhandle.
    Mid-level lapse rates remain steep enough for isolated large hail.
    Low-level lapse rates are still steep in far southern Pennsylvania
    into adjacent West Virginia/Maryland. There, wind damage will remain
    possible into early evening.

    Environmentally speaking, a downstream watch to the east appears
    unlikely this evening. Local extensions could occur along the
    southern flank should strong/severe convection persist.

    ..Wendt.. 03/22/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5sSmjJpXB_nghzrD8DH6Ol218HwRIjZUtrsUygGXqK49MjfwgowbrqP9A78Ux9wUrnzkuOeDk= M-ysKDtyDo_uD5X_w0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

    LAT...LON 39347860 39218052 39368112 39758200 39998213 40228206
    40868126 41228070 41467982 41417884 41247809 40557626
    39857618 39527709 39347860=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)