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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0285

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Mar 22 20:50:58 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 222050
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222050=20
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-222315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0285
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0350 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

    Areas affected...Southeast IL...southern/central IN...and
    southwest/central OH

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 222050Z - 222315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential for severe storms capable of producing
    severe hail and locally damaging gusts should increase later this
    afternoon into the evening. While timing is uncertain, a watch may
    eventually be needed for parts of the area.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows an ENE/WSW-oriented
    cold front moving quickly southward across central OH, IN, and IL.
    While surface temperatures have warmed into the middle/upper 80s
    amid middle/upper 50s to near 60 dewpoints ahead of the front, the
    latest ACARS soundings suggest that the low-levels remain relatively
    dry, and a lack of pre-frontal boundary-layer cumulus also confirms
    this. As a result, confidence in surface-based storm development
    ahead of the front is low. The one exception is in eastern/central
    OH, where isolated thunderstorms are evolving along the front and
    could pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds over the next
    hour or two. Nevertheless, as large-scale ascent preceding a
    midlevel wave overspreads the region later this afternoon into the
    evening, anafrontal convection is expected westward into western OH, southern/central IN, and southeastern IL. A plume of steep midlevel
    lapse rates atop the frontal surface and around 50 kt of effective
    shear should still support storm organization.=20

    Severe hail will be possible with any elevated supercells that can
    evolve, especially in the earlier stages of convective development.
    However, deep-layer westerly flow may tend to promote upscale growth
    into clusters/lines. While the expected elevated nature of these
    storms casts uncertainty on the damaging-wind risk, the steep lapse
    rates and antecedent heating of the pre-convective boundary layer
    could support damaging winds with the upscale-growing activity.
    While timing of storm initiation is a bit uncertain, a watch may
    eventually be needed for parts of the area.

    ..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/22/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8bumWvR721WqzdvrndjgrZ4O33HHZ9hVP4BM9BqxZI3nGHDWutnOjLcEQYKzqypmvfp-9tgOM= L4NDgWsV8PqJCn5Jt4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...
    ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 38918901 39358897 39698852 39958788 40278651 40518445
    40618321 40488267 40378241 39998216 39448213 39118241
    38868299 38638401 38438507 38278620 38088778 38188825
    38488879 38918901=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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