ACUS11 KWNS 221902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221902=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-222030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0284
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Ohio into central Pennsylvania...northern West Virginia...and western Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 221902Z - 222030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms is increasing.
Supercells and small bowing segments will support a severe wind/hail
risk through the afternoon. A tornado is also possible. A Severe
Thunderstorm watch will eventually be needed.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery depicts a gradual deepening
of cumulus on the southern periphery of a cloud deck, and ahead of
an approaching cold front, where surface temperatures have warmed
above 80 F. Surface dewpoints range from the upper 40s to mid 50s F,
resulting in meager buoyancy (i.e. 1000 J/kg SBCAPE per the 18Z PIT
observed sounding). Despite relatively poor moisture, steep
tropospheric lapse rates and enlarged hodographs (per recent CCX/PBZ
VADs), will support the development of potentially longer-lived
updrafts with any storms that manage to mature. Supercells and small
bowing segments are possible. 50+ kts of effective bulk shear amid
7.5-8.5 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates will support severe hail
potential with sustained supercells, with some stones potentially
reaching 2 inches in diameter. Furthermore, given the well-mixed
boundary layer and strong speed shear in place (per 18Z PIT observed
sounding), efficient damaging wind production is possible. A gust or
two may exceed 65 kts.=20

Storms are expected to initiate in the next few hours, so a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch will eventually be needed.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 03/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7PIbmU6WPG8CFiFL1s7XO90YU8gbX2zC7k7EbS146cRVx_wpPE8n4HHVWr5uCYHwM5dyAPPra= uARFdWpjiHFAk5_K3g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 40268195 40748003 41097790 41037701 40797661 40447643
40097649 39877669 39637706 39407768 39387845 39397911
39338019 39368087 39418132 39518167 39608189 40268195=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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