ACUS48 KWNS 110754
SWOD48
SPC AC 110752

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-6/Sat-Mon...

An upper trough will begin to deepen as it moves over the northern
Rockies and into the northern/central High Plains on
Saturday/Saturday night. As this occurs, a lee cyclone will deepen
as it shifts east across the central Plains toward the MO Valley by
early Sunday. Modified Gulf moisture will return northward in
response to increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface
cyclone and attendant cold front. Medium range guidance is in fairly
good agreement that any deeper/higher quality moisture will remain
confined to east TX and the immediate Gulf coast on Sunday. With
northward extent into the Mid-South, Mid-MS and Lower OH, and TN
Valleys, 50s F dewpoints appear more likely. The upper trough will
intensify and shift east across the Midwest and south-central U.S.
on Sunday, but stronger flow aloft will remain displaced from better
quality moisture return. While some severe potential could develop
from east TX into the Lower OH/TN Valleys as a strong cold front
tracks east across the central U.S. on Sunday, probabilities appear
less than 15 percent at this time.

This system will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Monday,
though any severe potential along the East Coast appears low at this
time as the primary forcing for ascent lags behind the surface
front.

...Days 7-8/Tue-Wed...

An amplified upper ridge will build across the western U.S. during
the end of Tuesday and Wednesday while upper troughing persists
across the East. Surface high pressure and the prior cold frontal
passage into the Gulf will leave a stable and dry airmass in place,
precluding severe potential.

..Leitman.. 03/11/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 120817
SWOD48
SPC AC 120815

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower
OH Valleys...

An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east
to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime
hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the
trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an
already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the
Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a
strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and
much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio
to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning.

While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of
the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and
the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected
with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions.
Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front,
potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest
moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least
weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of
strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold
front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and
Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and
just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will
exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15
percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into
the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north
and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley
vicinity in subsequent outlooks.

...Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic...

Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as
the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS
Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly
flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic.
Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward
through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal
surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support
backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear.
Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation
occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be
inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead
of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing
cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to
severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the
warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain.
Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear
convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for
portions of the region.

...Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday...

Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday through Thursday
as strong surface high pressure builds in the wake of the earlier
cold frontal passage. A dry/stable airmass will prevail as Gulf
moisture remains well offshore.

..Leitman.. 03/12/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 130900
SWOD48
SPC AC 130858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will
develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.

Models are in good agreement with the large scale pattern on
Monday/D4, depicting a deep upper trough moving out of the
Mississippi Valley and ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the
Mid Atlantic and into to the Northeast.

Given the antecedent upper ridging on the previous day, low-level
southerly winds will help to moisten the air mass well ahead of an
approaching cold front. By 12Z Monday, 60s F dewpoints will already
extend from northern GA across the Piedmont and into southeast VA,
and this plume of moisture will rapidly spread north with near 60 F
dewpoints into southeast PA by 00Z.

There appears to be two regimes for severe potential on Monday.
First, up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE may develop well ahead of the
approaching cold front, and there is some indication that scattered
convection may occur across the warm sector from mid to late
afternoon. If this occurs, supercells would be most likely, with
potential for a few tornadoes from the Carolinas into eastern VA.

Models also indicate an elongated pressure fall/rise couplet, which
when combined with 50-70 kt 850 mb winds and extreme low-level
shear, could easily result in a QLCS along the cold front with
corridors of significant damaging winds and embedded tornado risk.

Beyond Monday/D4, stable air behind this system will likely preclude
any severe threat through Friday/D8.

..Jewell.. 03/13/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 131953
SWOD48
SPC AC 131951

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will
develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.

Models are in good agreement with the large scale pattern on
Monday/D4, depicting a deep upper trough moving out of the
Mississippi Valley and ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the
Mid Atlantic and into to the Northeast.

Given the antecedent upper ridging on the previous day, low-level
southerly winds will help to moisten the air mass well ahead of an
approaching cold front. By 12Z Monday, 60s F dewpoints will already
extend from northern GA across the Piedmont and into southeast VA,
and this plume of moisture will rapidly spread north with near 60 F
dewpoints into southeast PA by 00Z.

There appears to be two regimes for severe potential on Monday.
First, up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE may develop well ahead of the
approaching cold front, and there is some indication that scattered
convection may occur across the warm sector from mid to late
afternoon. If this occurs, supercells would be most likely, with
potential for a few tornadoes from the Carolinas into eastern VA.

Models also indicate an elongated pressure fall/rise couplet, which
when combined with 50-70 kt 850 mb winds and extreme low-level
shear, could easily result in a QLCS along the cold front with
corridors of significant damaging winds and embedded tornado risk.

Beyond Monday/D4, stable air behind this system will likely preclude
any severe threat through Friday/D8.

..Jewell.. 03/13/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 132006
SWOD48
SPC AC 132004

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

AMENDED TO EXPAND D4/MONDAY THREAT AREAS

...DISCUSSION...
...Updated discussion for D4...
The majority of deterministic and ensemble model guidance agree on a
deep midlevel trough and associated cold front that will move
eastward across the Appalachians and to the Atlantic coast by
Tuesday morning. Severe storms could be ongoing at the beginning of
the period along the northeast Gulf coast into GA. The warm sector, characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s, will expand
northward (generally east of the Appalachians) through the day as
far north as PA. Though clouds could limit downstream surface
heating somewhat, very strong wind profiles and focused forcing for
ascent will favor a continuation of convection along the front, as
well as pre-frontal convection, with the potential to produce
relatively widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes.

...Previous discussion below...
Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will
develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.

Models are in good agreement with the large scale pattern on
Monday/D4, depicting a deep upper trough moving out of the
Mississippi Valley and ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the
Mid Atlantic and into to the Northeast.

Given the antecedent upper ridging on the previous day, low-level
southerly winds will help to moisten the air mass well ahead of an
approaching cold front. By 12Z Monday, 60s F dewpoints will already
extend from northern GA across the Piedmont and into southeast VA,
and this plume of moisture will rapidly spread north with near 60 F
dewpoints into southeast PA by 00Z.

There appears to be two regimes for severe potential on Monday.
First, up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE may develop well ahead of the
approaching cold front, and there is some indication that scattered
convection may occur across the warm sector from mid to late
afternoon. If this occurs, supercells would be most likely, with
potential for a few tornadoes from the Carolinas into eastern VA.

Models also indicate an elongated pressure fall/rise couplet, which
when combined with 50-70 kt 850 mb winds and extreme low-level
shear, could easily result in a QLCS along the cold front with
corridors of significant damaging winds and embedded tornado risk.

Beyond Monday/D4, stable air behind this system will likely preclude
any severe threat through Friday/D8.

..Thompson.. 03/13/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 140851
SWOD48
SPC AC 140850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
On Tuesday/D4, a large upper trough will move across the Northeast,
though the associated surface cold front will already be well
offshore the East Coast with high pressure over land. Behind this
upper trough, models indicate a large upper ridge will be situated
over the Southwest for several days, with a northwest flow pattern
across the Plains. Given this pattern, minimal appreciable moisture
return is expected over the CONUS, and severe storms appear unlikely
through Saturday/D8.

..Jewell.. 03/14/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 150852
SWOD48
SPC AC 150850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe storms appear unlikely across the CONUS for the D4-8 period,
as an upper ridge holds over the Southwest with a mean upper trough
over the East. This pattern will keep a surface high over much of
the east/southeast CONUS, with northerly winds over the Gulf Of
America for much of the period.

Models do indicate the upper ridge over the Southwest may weaken
into the Sat/D7 and Sun/D8 time frame, with perhaps the pattern
trending toward zonal. Even so, potential for any significant
instability to develop over land remains minimal.

..Jewell.. 03/15/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 160648
SWOD48
SPC AC 160646

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A northwest flow regime will persist across the Plains through
Saturday/D6 as an upper high holds over the southwestern states. The
ridge is expected to break down late D6 through the remainder of the
period into Monday/D8, as a strong wave moves southeastward into the
Great Lakes, and a weaker wave potentially moves into the Great
Basin/Four Corners states on Sunday/D7. This overall pattern will
maintain relatively stable conditions over most of the CONUS, with
high pressure over the southeastern states including the Gulf of
America. Further, as the stronger wave potentially moves across the
Great Lakes and into the Northeast, a reinforcing cold front is
likely to plunge south over much of the central and eastern states
into the D7/D8 time frame. While limited moisture may precede this
cold front, overall potential for destabilization appears to be
minimal.

..Jewell.. 03/16/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 170614
SWOD48
SPC AC 170612

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge will hold over the Southwest from Fri/D4 into Sat/D5,
but will begin to flatten as a progressive, low-amplitude wave moves
into the far northern Rockies and Plains. This feature is then
forecast to amplify across the Great Lakes and Northeast during the
Sun/D6 to Tue/D8 period, while an upper ridge possibly re-builds
over the Southwest. However, predictability becomes low for that
pattern change.

In association with the northern wave, low pressure with a trailing
cold front may develop from the Plains to the Mid Atlantic from
Sun/D6 into Mon/D7. Given the antecedent dry conditions, only
marginal moisture return and destabilization are expected. While
this may support scattered thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley
region on Sunday/D6, substantial severe weather is not anticipated.

Behind that system, a reinforcing high will likely spread south
across the Plains and much of the East, resulting in stable
conditions.

..Jewell.. 03/17/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 180719
SWOD48
SPC AC 180717

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge is forecast to break down across the Southwest late
Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, with a weak wave embedded in the
northwesterly flow regime aloft. During the same time, a stronger
but low-amplitude feature will move rapidly east/southeast along the
Canadian border, across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.

In association with the northern/Great Lakes disturbance, a cold
front is forecast to push south into the Plains on Sunday/D5,
extending into the OH Valley by late in the day. This front will
interact with marginal moisture return across the Mid MS/OH Valleys,
and continue into the Southeast on Monday/D6. This front is forecast
to be roughly parallel to the upper flow, and would likely undercut thunderstorms that develop along it. MUCAPE on the order of 500-1000
J/kg seems reasonable, which will support marginal severe at best.

For the latter days of the period, the forecast becomes less
predictable, however, models on a run to run basis appear to be
trending toward higher heights/possible ridging over the Southwest,
with little to no threat of severe storms.

..Jewell.. 03/18/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 190901
SWOD48
SPC AC 190859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
On Sunday/D4, thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the OH
Valley into the Appalachians, and perhaps as far south as the TN
Valley, as an upper trough amplifies across the upper MS Valley and
into the Great Lakes. A cold front is forecast to extend
southwestward from a low over NY/PA, with perhaps lower 60s F
dewpoints and MUCAPE on the order of 500-1500 J/kg possible. Models
appear to have a wide range of instability values for Sunday, and as
such predictability is low. However, there is at least some
potential for strong to perhaps a few severe storms over the mid to
upper OH Valley. The most likely scenario is for a marginal setup
given the northwest flow pattern and modest-moisture-content warm
sector.

This front will push south toward the Gulf Coast on Monday/D5, with
high pressure building in to the north. The upper trough will move
across the Northeast on Monday, with another possibly amplifying
across the Great Lakes/Northeast Tuesday/D6 into Wednesday/D7. As
this occurs, an upper ridge is likely to exist across the Southwest,
with little overall severe potential for those days.

..Jewell.. 03/19/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 200844
SWOD48
SPC AC 200842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. on
Monday, as a cold front advances southward into the Carolinas.
Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Carolinas
Monday afternoon. Instability is forecast to be weak, but a marginal
severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwest mid-level flow is forecast over
much of the eastern two-thirds of nation. This pattern will keep a
warm and dry airmass in place over the continental U.S., making
thunderstorms unlikely in most areas.

...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
Mid-level flow is forecast to become more westerly across the
central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. In response, low-level
moisture return is forecast from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid
Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible from
Thursday afternoon into the overnight period across the lower to mid
Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, as a mid-level jet streak
passes through the north-central U.S. On Friday, a continued chance
for thunderstorm development will be possible from the mid
Mississippi Valley into the southern Appalachians. Although a severe
threat may develop on either Thursday or Friday, low predictability
exists concerning any specific scenario.

..Broyles.. 03/20/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 210831
SWOD48
SPC AC 210829

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western
Atlantic from Tuesday into Wednesday, as a surface high moves
eastward across the eastern U.S. A dry airmass is forecast across
most of the U.S., which should be unfavorable for thunderstorms in
most areas.

On Thursday, a low is forecast to develop in the northern U.S., as
low-level moisture returns quickly northward into the parts of the
Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible
across this unstable airmass, mainly Thursday night, along the
southern edge of a passing mid-level jet streak. The greatest
potential for severe thunderstorms is expected from the mid
Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley along and near a cold front.
At this time, the amount of spread concerning potential outcomes is substantial. An area may need to be added once model solutions begin
to agree more, and confidence increases concerning where the
greatest severe threat will be.

...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8...
On Friday, the front is forecast to move southward across the
Tennessee Valley, where isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms
will be possible during the day. The front is forecast to move
southward to near the Gulf Coast by Saturday. Isolated storms would
again be possible near the front. Although the current thinking is
that any severe threat will be marginal on Friday and Saturday,
uncertainty is substantial due to the extended range in the forecast
period.

..Broyles.. 03/21/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 220842
SWOD48
SPC AC 220840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5...
An upper-level ridge will move into the Rockies on Wednesday, as
northwesterly mid-level flow remains from the Great Plains to the
eastern U.S. On Thursday, the ridge will become less amplified as it
moves into the Great Plains. At the surface, low-level moisture is
forecast to return northward into the lower to mid Mississippi
Valley. Within this moist airmass, a pocket of moderate instability
is expected by late Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm development
will be possible near a front along the northern edge of the
stronger instability from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into north-central Ohio. Storms are expected to move east-southeastward
across the Ohio Valley on Thursday afternoon and evening. A severe
threat will be possible, but the magnitude of any potential threat
is still uncertain.

...Friday/Day 6 and Sunday/Day 8...
From Friday into Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move
southward from the mid Mississippi Valley to the central Gulf Coast.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the front
both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Weak instability should keep any
severe threat marginal.

On Sunday, the models are forecasting a dry airmass over most of the continental U.S., suggesting the potential for storms is low.

..Broyles.. 03/22/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 230900
SWOD48
SPC AC 230859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5...
Strong westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the
central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. At low-levels, moisture
advection is forecast to strengthen during the day from the mid
Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley as surface dewpoints
gradually increase into the lower to mid 60s F. A cold front is
forecast to advance southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by
Thursday afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms
developing along and near the front. Moderate instability should
develop to the south of the front, which combined with strong
deep-layer shear will likely support a severe threat during the
afternoon and evening. The greatest threat is expected to be from
northeast Missouri east-northeastward into western and northern
Ohio, where a threat area has been added for Thursday.

On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into
the mid Mississippi Valley, as a front moves southeastward into the
Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Although isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the
afternoon and evening, model forecasts suggest that instability will
remain relatively weak. This should keep any severe threat minimal.

...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8...
The cold front is forecast to move southward through the Southeast
on Saturday and should remain near the Gulf Coast on Sunday. In its
wake, a relatively dry airmass is forecast to be in place over much
of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most
areas. On Monday, some model forecasts suggest that a mid-level
shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains. Low-level
moisture could return northward into the southern Plains Monday into
Monday night. If this where to occur, then thunderstorm activity
would be mostly likely Monday night as a low-level jet develops.
However, this scenario is highly uncertain due to the extended range
in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/23/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 240844
SWOD48
SPC AC 240842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Widespread severe thunderstorm potential appears limited through the
remainder of March amid persistent upper-level ridging across the
central and western CONUS. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may
materialize across portions of the TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic on
D4/Friday as a strong cold front pushes east/southeast towards the
East Coast and northern Gulf. However, limited mid-level lapse rates
across the southeastern U.S. will likely modulate the potential for
severe thunderstorms. Surface high pressure building across the
eastern Plains and OH Valley in the wake of the cold front -
combined with the re-amplification of the upper ridge over the
western U.S. - will further limit severe thunderstorm potential for
much of the weekend and very early next week.

A gradual eastward translation of the surface high will likely
promote the initial stages of moisture into the central U.S. around
the D7/Mon or D8/Tues time frame. Most deterministic solutions and
ensemble systems hint at an upper-level regime shift as the upper
ridge shifts east and southwesterly flow becomes more prominent over
the Southwest. This may support some increase in severe weather
potential by the middle of next week, and possibly as early
D8/Tuesday, but predictability at this range appears very limited.

..Moore.. 03/24/2026

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