How will the war in Iran end?
From
Joseph Pereira@1:103/705 to
All on Fri Mar 20 04:46:06 2026
Before I present a number of scenarios, just to be clear, these are scenarios, not predictions.
The first scenario is that Trump allows the fleet to depart before the end of March. He declares that the US has won and leaves things as they are. In effect, admitting that you have lost the war, but Trump will then spend the rest of his life claiming that he won the war because the majority of the Iranian military apparatus was destroyed.
If this scenario plays out, the question is against whom Iran will continue the war. After all, it is the US and Israel that started this war. All other countries have had no active participation in it. If Iran continues the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, that situation may change, and that gives Iran itself little chance to repair the damage. I expect a political deal as soon as a leader emerges in Iran again.
The second scenario is the escalation of the war through a landing by US Marines. In that case, the war will not end in March, and the world will feel the full impact of such a scenario. China can allow the Russian oil tanker waiting at sea to dock and unload in its ports in the coming weeks. So China will not feel the pain from this in April and May. Many other countries, including all of Europe and countries in East Africa and Asia, will. Such an escalation of the war is immensely unpopular in the US. It will cause political discontent in the US to increase enormously, and there is a high probability that voters will remember this in November. With that in mind, Trump might well try to call off the elections, which could lead to enormous social unrest in the US. Possibly even serious impeachment proceedings against Trump later this year, because postponing the elections is nothing less than a disguised coup, and that is a difficult issue, even for a significant number of Republicans.
The third scenario is that the current actions continue, with the US rotating the aircraft carrier groups, as the current three groups have run out of ammunition and the equipment now requires major maintenance after a few weeks of war. This scenario paves the way for China to attack Taiwan, as the US will have run out of reserves by then.
This scenario is also the most unfavorable for Ukraine, because the US will have to purchase its entire ammunition production itself, as it will continue firing enormous quantities of ammunition at Iran. Meanwhile, there is a chance that Iran will simply refuse to surrender.
The fourth scenario is the one in which the US ultimately has little influence. It is possible that Iranian society will implode. There will then be no central authority left, and parts of the army and the various militias may decide to continue firing at neighboring countries. This will likely stop after a few weeks, as a civil war will subsequently begin in Iran. It is possible that we are already in this scenario, as Israel has already killed virtually all of Iran's known leaders. Consequently, there is no one left with enough authority to make national decisions that will actually be followed. That could be the reason why Iran currently does not want to surrender. It simply cannot surrender, because no one possesses that authority anymore.
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